Global Warming is a Fad

He never said it's not going to stop*, merely that it won't stop due to global warming.
Same problem. How do you know with absolute certainty?

IIRC, the conveyor is threatened by a large influx of cold water. Since the ice on greenland can go from solid without any actual warming (0C solid -> 0C liquid) then there's no actual warming needed to dump all that water.
And it also can go from ice to water because of warming. The claim was made that this is not happening.

Another factor is heavy rainfall on the Russian plains increasing the flow of fresh water from the northeast. The increased rainfall could be caused by climate change due to GW.

*"Stopping" the conveyor is a shortform for the actual theory which obviously only has the conveyor slowing and seizing and causing dead zones.
Accoording to measurements it allready has slowed down.
 
Same problem. How do you know with absolute certainty?

Hell if I know how it's known with absolute certainty. Magic 8 ball? The conveyor is something that I put a percentage chance on, and then calculate actions based on risk.

The IPCC is 90% sure that emissions will affect our economic growth. Other estimates put it at 2-6%. However, how does one factor in the economic impact of stopping a conveyor? "We have a 10% chance of 'We're screwed!' if we don't reduce emissions".
 
Indeed.

Incidently, picked this up from the most pinko of papers:

El guardiano, 1,5 years ago!

http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2005/dec/01/science.climatechange
Although climate records suggest that the current has ground to a halt in the distant past, the prospect of it shutting down entirely within the century are extremely low, according to climate modellers.
Chris West, director of the UK climate impacts programme at Oxford University's centre for the environment, said: "The only way computer models have managed to simulate an entire shutdown of the current is to magic into existence millions of tonnes of fresh water and dump it in the Atlantic. It's not clear where that water could ever come from, even taking into account increased Greenland melting."
Not really the scaremongering they are so often accused of.

So, I think we can all agree that the chances are minimal of the thing stopping. But I'm not all to happy with a decrease in circulation either.
Global warming weakens the circulation because increased meltwater from Greenland and the Arctic icesheets along with greater river run-off from Russia pour into the northern Atlantic and make it less saline which in turn makes it harder for the cooler water to sink, in effect slowing down the engine that drives the current.

The researchers measured the strength of the current at a latitude of 25 degrees N and found that the volume of cold, deep water returning south had dropped by 30%. At the same time, they measured a 30% increase in the amount of surface water peeling off early from the main northward current, suggesting far less was continuing up to Britain and the rest of Europe. The report appears in the journal Nature today.
Researchers on a scientific expedition in the Atlantic Ocean measured the strength of the current between Africa and the east coast of America and found that the circulation has slowed by 30% since a previous expedition 12 years ago.

The current, which drives the Gulf Stream, delivers the equivalent of 1m power stations-worth of energy to northern Europe, propping up temperatures by 10C in some regions. The researchers found that the circulation has weakened by 6m tonnes of water a second. Previous expeditions to check the current flow in 1957, 1981 and 1992 found only minor changes in its strength, although a slowing was picked up in a further expedition in 1998. The decline prompted the scientists to set up a £4.8m network of moored instruments in the Atlantic to monitor changes in the current continuously.

The network should also answer the pressing question of whether the significant weakening of the current is a short-term variation, or part of a more devastating long-term slowing of the flow.

If the current remains as weak as it is, temperatures in Britain are likely to drop by an average of 1C in the next decade, according to Harry Bryden at the National Oceanography Centre in Southampton who led the study. "Models show that if it shuts down completely, 20 years later, the temperature is 4C to 6C degrees cooler over the UK and north-western Europe," Dr Bryden said.
So much for warmer summers here as a result of GW :(
 
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