Global warming strikes again...

[Hrothbern]

Planes are like 2% of global emissions and exactly the kind of sector which we need to be saving our carbon budget for, given the lack of viable alternatives in that space in both a fuel sense (bio jet fuel is in its infancy and possibly not worth spending the resources to prioritise) and a usage sense (if you've gotta travel you've gotta travel). The opposite of low hanging fruit.

I'd argue the same for shipping but that's more about the political difficulties getting flags of convenience to enforce standards on their maritime fleets.

I don't see a future without airplanes as well. Especially for intercontinental transport and locations where it makes no sense to have a dense railway or motorway system.

Synthetic fuel at the cost needed to capture CO2, converted in synthetic fuel, and in your ticket price, should I guess erase climate discussions there (unless they are of a more theological nature)..

(environmental & health will stay regarding especially fine dust and to some degree noise. But those are a matter of volumes, a matter of viable alternatives. The higher ticket price will settle a lot)
Biofuel is, if you make an honest calculation, not sustainable the coming decades, because of the deforesting that is not in the total equation.

 

[Arwon]

Biofuel is, if you make an honest calculation, not sustainable the coming decades, because of the deforesting that is not in the total equation.

My understanding is algae may be one of the most promising biofuel source for aviation kerosene, which I guess is a bit different

 

[Hrothbern]

My understanding is algae may be one of the most promising biofuel source for aviation kerosene, which I guess is a bit different

Still some work to do there before mass production is economical interesting.

Algae are also seen as a promising food source (with our global population growing still at a fast rate beyond sustainable farming on land).

You can eat a bird in the sky only once.

And algae do contain besides energy (the carbs) also valuable proteins, fatty acids, micro nutrients... all discarded when "only" applied as fuel.

 

[Hrothbern]

A snail goes very slow and does need slime to get moving at all, but still...

Fossil is slowly getting less room

First movers get to set the rules — which is why the European Investment Bank's decision to end lending for fossil fuel projects could have a global impact.

The bank is the world's largest multilateral lender, and it's also the first to set a lending policy tied to the goals of the Paris Agreement — something other development banks have also pledged to do.


"We do believe we are helping to set the standard for all international institutions for what it means to be Paris aligned," Andrew McDowell, the bank's vice president in charge of energy, told reporters on Friday.

The shift in policy approved late Thursday in Luxembourg sends a clear signal that business as usual when it comes to financing big energy projects is dead. Getting the bank's stamp of approval and cheap finance is crucial for project developers, allowing them to more easily tap private markets.

The rules will end lending to fossil fuel projects as of 2021. That's a year later than the EIB had originally suggested, but their 2020 proposal sparked a storm of protest from the European Commission and some of the 28 EU countries that are the bank's shareholders.

https://www.politico.eu/article/eus...fossil-fuel-lending-european-investment-bank/

 

[Hrothbern]

With my morning coffee... in a cynical streak reading the news...

... the big Climate conference. Not in Brazil because Bolsonora did suddenly and last minute terminate that planned meeting there. Not in Chili because of the troubles there.
Spain so good to improvise the last minute solution in Spain. Chapeau for Spain
https://www.theguardian.com/science...es-want-decisive-action-to-prevent-inundation

The dot rock tax evasion paradise islands complain that the big nations are doing not enough against Climate warming to prevent their countries disappearing below the ocean waves.

What on earth do they think ?
That the billionaires, so happy to use them now, will come to their rescue ?

And why should those billionaires do that if they have for example South-Dakota as safe haven for their wealth ?
high and dry from the ocean waves... fully protected by US sovereignity.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...y-the-super-rich-love-south-dakota-trust-laws

 

[Birdjaguar]

Anthrax in the Arctic

This is not recent (2016) The consequences of global warming are already upon us.

A 12-year-old boy in the far north of Russia has died in an outbreak of anthrax that experts believe was triggered when unusually warm weather caused the release of the bacteria.

The boy was one of 72 nomadic herders, including 41 children, hospitalised in the town of Salekhard in the Arctic Circle, after reindeer began dying en masse from anthrax.

Five adults and two other children have been diagnosed with the disease, which is known as “Siberian plague” in Russian and was last seen in the region in 1941.

More than 2,300 reindeer have died, and at least 63 people have been evacuated from a quarantine area around the site of the outbreak.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/01/anthrax-outbreak-climate-change-arctic-circle-russia

 

[Synobun]

It surprised me just how common anthrax is when my dad got it in his leg when I was 10 or 11. At that age, I thought it was only a weaponized agent, and I was wondering who my dad pissed off in rural Canada.

Anyways, yeah, it sucks. Not great news.

 

[Birdjaguar]

And then there is this:

Flesh-Eating Bacteria on New Jersey Beaches Are Rising Because of Climate Change

You’ve probably heard of flesh-eating bacteria, which can cause a deadly infection called necrotizing fasciitis. The horrifying infection made headlines recently when a 12-year-old girl contracted it after going for a swim in Florida. The technical term for this flesh-eating bacteria is Vibrio vulnificus, or V. vulnificus and there are two ways you can be exposed to it: By coming into contact with it in the water or by eating seafood that’s been contaminated with it. Up until very recently, necrotizing fasciitis infections have been associated with warmer beach destinations such as those of South Florida. This is because V. vulnificus lives in waters with surface temperatures higher than 55.4 degrees Fahrenheit. But researchers are now warning that, due to global warming, we could start seeing more of this flesh-eating bacteria in typically cooler areas like New Jersey.

In fact, we already are seeing more of it in the Delaware Bay area, according to a report published recently in the Annals of Internal Medicine.

The Delaware Bay sits in between New Jersey and Delaware coastlines. The authors of the new report, who work at Cooper University Hospital in New Jersey, warn that infections caused by V. vulnificus aren’t uncommon in the Chesapeake Bay, which is further south than the Delaware Bay. However, V. vulnificus infections resulting from exposure in the Delaware Bay were rare—until recently.

In the eight years leading up to 2017, Cooper doctors saw only one V. vulnificus infection at their hospital. But during the summers of 2017 and 2018, they saw five V. vulnificus necrotizing...fasciitis infections.

 

[onejayhawk]

My understanding is algae may be one of the most promising biofuel source for aviation kerosene, which I guess is a bit different

That would make sense. Algae produces a lot of bi and tri-ols, glycerin being the most common. These are easy to string together by removing the alcohol groups as water, ie H from a carbon atom of one molecule and OH from a carbon of another molecule joining into a water molecule, leaving the carbons attached. Under controlled conditions, you can almost tailor the resulting carbon chains.

J

 

[Hrothbern]

That would make sense. Algae produces a lot of bi and tri-ols, glycerin being the most common. These are easy to string together by removing the alcohol groups as water, ie H from a carbon atom of one molecule and OH from a carbon of another molecule joining into a water molecule, leaving the carbons attached. Under controlled conditions, you can almost tailor the resulting carbon chains.

J

Once you got algae there are various ways to get "kerosine".

The point I made against algae is that
* algae harvested from oceans are in competitiotion with usage as food.
* if you use reactors (the hype) to produce algae or products algae can make you have to supply light to these reactors. And where is the energy from that light coming from ???

 

[El_Machinae]

The trick would be to go where there's light but little life. Middle of the oceans. But that's pretty huge infrastructure

 

[Samson]

We have heard skeptics bemoan the poor quality of older climate models to predict current climate, as a way to cast doubt over current models. Zeke Hausfather, a graduate student at the University of California, Berkeley, has run the old models with real world emissions, and it turns out they were pretty good after all:

The researchers compared annual average surface temperatures across the globe to the surface temperatures predicted in 17 forecasts. Those predictions were drawn from 14 separate computer models released between 1970 and 2001. In some cases, the studies and their computer codes were so old that the team had to extract data published in papers, using special software to gauge the exact numbers represented by points on a printed graph.
Most of the models accurately predicted recent global surface temperatures, which have risen approximately 0.9°C since 1970. For 10 forecasts, there was no statistically significant difference between their output and historic observations, the team reports today in Geophysical Research Letters.
Seven older models missed the mark by as much as 0.1°C per decade. But the accuracy of five of those forecasts improved enough to match observations when the scientists adjusted a key input to the models: how much climate-changing pollution humans have emitted over the years. That includes greenhouse gases and aerosols, tiny particles that reflect sunlight. Pollution levels hinge on a host of unpredictable factors. Emissions might rise or fall because of regulations, technological advances, or economic booms and busts.
To take one example, Hausfather points to a famous 1988 model overseen by then–NASA scientist James Hansen. The model predicted that if climate pollution kept rising at an even pace, average global temperatures today would be approximately 0.3°C warmer than they actually are. That has helped make Hansen’s work a popular target for critics of climate science.
Hausfather found that most of this overshoot was caused not by a flaw in the model’s basic physics, however. Instead, it arose because pollution levels changed in ways Hansen didn’t predict. For example, the model overestimated the amount of methane—a potent greenhouse gas—that would go into the atmosphere in future years. It also didn’t foresee a precipitous drop in planet-warming refrigerants like some Freon compounds after international regulations from the Montreal Protocol became effective in 1989.​

Primary paper, review in science.

 

[El_Machinae]

I use this type of information when talking to my denier friends. That said

"For 10 forecasts, there was no statistically significant difference between their output and historic observations"

The memories of statistics are niggling. Isn't this super-easy to do? I mean, you just need error bars that are wide enough. It's seems they're making a claim about alpha when the real interest is going to be about beta.

 

[rah]

Your denier friends will just mention how cold it is today and say that disproves Global warming.

 

[El_Machinae]

Your denier friends will just mention how cold it is today and say that disproves Global warming.

No. Everybody has a threshold of evidence. The fact that Esso obfuscated results is useful. That said, I can't even get liberals to change their behaviour in any significant way, so it's not like anybody really cares

 

[onejayhawk]

The trick would be to go where there's light but little life. Middle of the oceans. But that's pretty huge infrastructure

Nevada, away from Vegas. As long as you have water recapture, this would be easy to do in a desert.

J

 

[El_Machinae]

I guess "wherever solar would work" is a short form answer

 

[stfoskey12]

And then there is this:

Flesh-Eating Bacteria on New Jersey Beaches Are Rising Because of Climate Change

But the waters in New Jersey have only warmed a couple degrees probably, far less than the temperature difference between there and Florida. So I don't get how climate change alone can be the cause. If they just need temperatures as warm as 55.4F to survive, that level of warmth is reached as far north as Maine in the summer time, I'd bet.

 

[Birdjaguar]

But the waters in New Jersey have only warmed a couple degrees probably, far less than the temperature difference between there and Florida. So I don't get how climate change alone can be the cause. If they just need temperatures as warm as 55.4F to survive, that level of warmth is reached as far north as Maine in the summer time, I'd bet.

And what is your explanation? The Gulf stream is also likely involved.

 

[Modder_Mode]

But the waters in New Jersey have only warmed a couple degrees probably, far less than the temperature difference between there and Florida. So I don't get how climate change alone can be the cause. If they just need temperatures as warm as 55.4F to survive, that level of warmth is reached as far north as Maine in the summer time, I'd bet.

Because climate change has been made unfalsifiable, any weather event or indeed natural disaster that occurs or any anomaly in nature is automatically linked to climate change and anyone that dares question it is a denier of the worst kind and held to the same ilk as holocaust deniers and flat earthers, the methodology and measuring of climate change may be scientific, but the discussion surrounding it certainly isn't.