How do you think the world would have evolved if there had not been the World Wars?

socialism =/ communism mang

And Obama's not even a socialist, so that argument was just off any way.

If WW1 or WW2 had never happened I think that a major war of some type would have eventually started and the world by the mid 20th century would be very similar to what it was by the end of WW2. The growing nationalist movements within the old empires created several hot points. If an incident in the Balkans didn’t start a war perhaps a revolution against the Ottomans might. The desire to control the oil there would surely get the major European powers involved. We also had growing resentment of western control in the far east. Add to that Japan’s need to obtain raw materials to feed its growing industrial economy. Any war is the far east would naturally lead European and American involvement.

To be fair, the previous two Balkan Wars hadn't turned into major world wars, and the Japanese and Russians clashed on their own without the military intervention of the great European powers. Oil was a relatively recent discovery and still being uncovered in stable trading partners like the United States. I'm not sure there was an acute-enough resource crunch that oil was valued over other colonial exports, like rubber.

To say any incident outside of Europe would have led to a world war is imprecise--I think it would be more appropriate to say that eventually one of those outside incidents, which happened on a fairly regular basis, would have caused the chain reaction we observed leading to WW1.
 
Antilogic said:
And Obama's not even a socialist, so that argument was just off any way.

wrong
 
To be fair, the previous two Balkan Wars hadn't turned into major world wars, and the Japanese and Russians clashed on their own without the military intervention of the great European powers. Oil was a relatively recent discovery and still being uncovered in stable trading partners like the United States. I'm not sure there was an acute-enough resource crunch that oil was valued over other colonial exports, like rubber.

To say any incident outside of Europe would have led to a world war is imprecise--I think it would be more appropriate to say that eventually one of those outside incidents, which happened on a fairly regular basis, would have caused the chain reaction we observed leading to WW1.

I agree with paragraph two. I should have stated my idea more clearly.

RE oil: The European powers and America were extremely interested in Middle East oil in the early 1900’s. For example, the initial stock offering for shares of the Anglo-Persian Oil Co. at the London Stock Exchange in 1908 sold out in only 30 minutes. Control of the oil trade was a big factor in European meddling during the Young Turk movement. By 1911 almost 200 British war ships had converted from coal to oil. England wasn’t the only country where this was happening. Also many peace time operations were making the change to oil throughout the industrial nations.

RE Japan: True, but an invasion by Japan of China (which eventually did happen) or of one of the European colonies would have had totally different consequences than their war with Russia.
 
Not a fan of the Mehter? :p

when compared with Mozart, Schubert, Bruckner & all, not really... But nice uniforms :p

To be fair, the previous two Balkan Wars hadn't turned into major world wars, and the Japanese and Russians clashed on their own without the military intervention of the great European powers. Oil was a relatively recent discovery and still being uncovered in stable trading partners like the United States.

yes, but the powers were always heavily involved in peace making after those wars. If a major disagreement would've come out of one of those peace attempts... abit on the edge? Though I agree, don't see a WW as very probable from a minor conflict(ruso japanese was pretty minor).

I see it inevitable as long as France + Russia = "love"(Brits have to support them, otherwise they kinda give free reign to Germany after trouncing those two and in phase 2... it's them. And US - US always comes to help the Empire when push comes to shove imho - sure, to quote Winston, after exploring all other possibilities, but... they come nevertheless, they just love posturing).
 
SnowlyWhite said:
otherwise they kinda give free reign to Germany after trouncing those two and in phase 2... it's them.

law of history 1: franco-prussian war -> ??? -> inevitable germano-british war
 
law of history 1: franco-prussian war -> ??? -> inevitable germano-british war

Also known as: "a typical alternate history timeline, regardless of points of divergence, always converge in the general types of events, actors, trends or concepts familiar to the author of the timeline."
 
Even if Germany had become ascendant on the Continent there wasn't really any reason for Britain to fight it anyway. They could easily gobble up any German colonies at will, and Germany couldn't invade Britain. Britain certainly never suffered any major problems when Napoleon held sway over Europe. They ate French and French-satellite colonies, systematically tore apart any fleet that actually seemed capable of posing a challenge, then sat back, drank tea and financed anyone who had a crack at Napoleon for them. They could easily do the same if Germany became the dominant European power.
 
well:

1. British start 19th <> start 20th century. Start 20th sees them in a position of basically already having acquired everything they wanted, so they inevitably had much to lose and little to win(German colonies? err... what?).
2. Brits were pretty close to bankruptcy during Napoleon?
Also Nappy didn't exactly control Europe; was nigh on impossible to control Europe logistics wise back than? While start 20th it's perfectly possible? There was an opposition to Nappy; a solid one actually - 3 empires. Ok, let's say 2 and a half.
Nappy had what? 1/3rd of Europe if we're generous and he was already way over his limits both administrative and logistics wise.

you can actually win a war in 20th century(more or less occupy the continent). Which is new and crappy for someone warring by proxy.

3.
law of history 1: franco-prussian war -> ??? -> inevitable germano-british war

they started unification... 20 years ago? They existed as power for how long? Noone perceives you as a threat in the beginning; everyone treats you with contempt. What were the bets on the outcome of the war when it started? You're the weird new dude; any self respecting politician waits for you to magically disappear because any self respecting politician tries at 1st the method of... ignoring the problem.

And between Prussia and Germany there's a huge difference. Prussia had crap enough demographics to prevent it being a real threat.
 
By 1911 almost 200 British war ships had converted from coal to oil. England wasn’t the only country where this was happening.
actually it was; the Germans for instance did not even start such conversions until the second two ships of the Bayern class of superdreadnoughts, neither of which was laid down until 1914

anyway, my reasons were detailed in the Young Turk thread, but British "meddling" in the "Young Turk revolution", insofar as it actually happened, was not part of a coherent policy aimed at gaining oil concessions; furthermore, it would not have resulted in war for the key reason that resource management clashes have never resulted in war - that would be putting the cart before the horse

also, oil comically fails at describing British policy in say Iran, where they notably failed to extend their protectorate over the oil-producing regions of the country despite having a clear and easy opportunity to do so in 1907 and despite the fact that British interests in the country were noninsignificantly connected with oil extraction - why would oil do any better a job of explaining British policy in a country whose oil reserves were far less certain in the prewar era?
 
furthermore, it would not have resulted in war for the key reason that resource management clashes have never resulted in war - that would be putting the cart before the horse

I am curious about this comment and would like to know more about why you feel that should always be the rule.
 
well:

1. British start 19th <> start 20th century. Start 20th sees them in a position of basically already having acquired everything they wanted, so they inevitably had much to lose and little to win(German colonies? err... what?).
German Papua, German East Africa and Nauru were all acquired by either Britain or one of its colonies - Australia - and all of them had some use to the British Empire. And Britain certainly hadn't acquired everything they wanted; they'd merely acquired everything that was worth the effort of going after by that point. Coastal North Africa, Eritrea, Indo-China, Nauru; all of these places had their uses to the Empire, and could only be acquired through warfare. And Britain didn't want to go to that much effort to get them. But if Germany became a Continental hegemon, why wouldn't Britain take away their colonies and the colonies of their satellites?

2. Brits were pretty close to bankruptcy during Napoleon?
Not really. Britain could trade with her Empire quite comfortably, though obviously this wouldn't be as profitable as trading with Europe. But French-dominated Europe needed British trade far more than Britain needed Europe's trade. The War of 1812 was actually much worse for the British economy, as the US was little more than an economic appendage of the British Empire right up until WWI broke out.

Also Nappy didn't exactly control Europe; was nigh on impossible to control Europe logistics wise back than? While start 20th it's perfectly possible?
It's impossible to completely dominate Europe logistically (not even sure what you mean by that; you mean using military force to dominate distant possessions? Because logistics is how you get supplies to those troops and transport them, not how you dominate a country) now. Napoleon simply forced the governments of his satellite-states to obey his decrees. That's basically all any nation can do even to this day. Given the choice between being a puppet-state with a degree of independence or coming under a brutal occupation, almost all nations choose to become puppets. And they're correct to do so.

as an opposition to Nappy; a solid one actually - 3 empires. Ok, let's say 2 and a half.
Russia, Britain and Austria?

Even if Germany defeated France and Russia in a swift, pre-emptive war, you understand that those two nations aren't just going to become willing partners, right? Even Petain, cowardly traitor that he was, attempted to preserve independent French interests against Hitler. Russia was far too large and powerful to occupy, so the best Germany could hope for would be a swift, decisive and unexpected victory, followed by the creation of independent states to be used as satellites and buffer zones - this is what actually happened in the Treaty of Brest-Livotsk - and the exploitation of internal Russian power-struggles to keep it from focusing its attention back on Germany. Russia could not be pacified.

And France, while an easier target, posed vast difficulties in the form of guerilla warfare and the potential for troops to refuse to hand over colonies coerced out of the French government by Germany, or even to ally themselves with Britain against their own government rather than relinquish their possessions to Germany or a German-allied France.

Nappy had what? 1/3rd of Europe if we're generous and he was already way over his limits both administrative and logistics wise.
He actually wasn't over his head until he invaded Russia. If Napoleon had been willing to accept negotiations with Britain based on fair, reasonable preconditions, there's no reason he couldn't have dominated Europe for decades. There's also no reason his heirs couldn't have continued to do so. But he thought he was above the rules of international diplomacy, and that's what kept Britain from making peace with him. They realised fairly quickly that a French-dominated Continent wasn't actually a threat to them.

you can actually win a war in 20th century(more or less occupy the continent). Which is new and crappy for someone warring by proxy.
By the mid-to-late twentieth century, sure. You didn't have mobile warfare until the latter stages of WWI, and it wasn't very good. What would be the incentive for Germany to develop and produce huge numbers of tanks if they already dominated Europe? Germany's best bet in the early years of the twentieth century would be to take control of the railroads, but that would be a far cry from occupying the Continent.

3.

they started unification... 20 years ago? They existed as power for how long? Noone perceives you as a threat in the beginning; everyone treats you with contempt.
You don't think beating France in a few weeks might earn Germany some respect? :confused:
 
actually it was; the Germans for instance did not even start such conversions until the second two ships of the Bayern class of superdreadnoughts, neither of which was laid down until 1914

anyway, my reasons were detailed in the Young Turk thread, but British "meddling" in the "Young Turk revolution", insofar as it actually happened, was not part of a coherent policy aimed at gaining oil concessions; furthermore, it would not have resulted in war for the key reason that resource management clashes have never resulted in war - that would be putting the cart before the horse

also, oil comically fails at describing British policy in say Iran, where they notably failed to extend their protectorate over the oil-producing regions of the country despite having a clear and easy opportunity to do so in 1907 and despite the fact that British interests in the country were noninsignificantly connected with oil extraction - why would oil do any better a job of explaining British policy in a country whose oil reserves were far less certain in the prewar era?

Thanks for the correction. I did not realize that only England was converting ships to oil at the time.

I agree that oil was not important enough to cause a war in 1914. I was simply trying to point out how fast it was becoming an important resource. We are talking about a world where neither WW1 nor WW2 happened. If the world had remained relatively peacefull (maybe a few small conflicts) until a crisis developed in the Middle East say in 1930 or thereabouts it is quite possible that the need to control this important source of oil could get the European nations involved.
 
I am curious about this comment and would like to know more about why you feel that should always be the rule.
other than the fact that it hasn't happened?

well, hasn't happened outside of extremely limited contexts e.g. gold/diamonds in the Congo basin and certainly not in the context of entire states
 
And Britain certainly hadn't acquired everything they wanted; they'd merely acquired everything that was worth the effort of going after by that point.

yes, and that's what I said too - much to lose, little to win. Obviously it was something to win, but not that much.


It's impossible to completely dominate Europe logistically (not even sure what you mean by that; you mean using military force to dominate distant possessions? Because logistics is how you get supplies to those troops and transport them, not how you dominate a country) now. Napoleon simply forced the governments of his satellite-states to obey his decrees. That's basically all any nation can do even to this day. Given the choice between being a puppet-state with a degree of independence or coming under a brutal occupation, almost all nations choose to become puppets. And they're correct to do so.

I mean feeding the occupation troops. This day you can perfectly occupy Europe.

Hitler occupied Europe perfectly fine and without that many troops(really, what he payed in terms of manpower/eq. for occupation was.... 10x times offseted by what he managed to pillage - occupation is a good business at least short/medium term).
And he occupied Benelux, more than half France, Scandinavia, Poland, Czechosolvakia(damn, this thing is weirdly spelled in English), Greece, Yugoslavia. With tanks and that... Easily - if he wasn't commited in Russia, noone would've moved in those countries - the English would've kept playing partisans with the maquis for any forseeable future.

Even if Germany defeated France and Russia in a swift, pre-emptive war, you understand that those two nations aren't just going to become willing partners, right? Even Petain, cowardly traitor that he was, attempted to preserve independent French interests against Hitler. Russia was far too large and powerful to occupy, so the best Germany could hope for would be a swift, decisive and unexpected victory, followed by the creation of independent states to be used as satellites and buffer zones - this is what actually happened in the Treaty of Brest-Livotsk - and the exploitation of internal Russian power-struggles to keep it from focusing its attention back on Germany. Russia could not be pacified.

actually I think that if they weren't pressed to attack on the western front, the germans could thoroughly disembowel Russia in '18. Really, they kinda beat the russians fair and square in WW1, not by some quick lucky shot.
And without commiting that much on that front anyway. Sure, that thing is a mess to occupy, contrary to the rest of the continent(and probably poor business too, like any occupation of a poor zone). But you can produce enough mess in it to make sure it won't be a threat for a long time(they already had poor industry - screw that some more and they'll stay put for a long time).

And France, while an easier target, posed vast difficulties in the form of guerilla warfare and the potential for troops to refuse to hand over colonies coerced out of the French government by Germany, or even to ally themselves with Britain against their own government rather than relinquish their possessions to Germany or a German-allied France.

all that is nice, yet if there's no opposition on the continent... yes, you'll get the colonies, but that's kinda all(contrary to 1800, when it was plenty of opposition so you could finance stuff if you had money)


Germany's best bet in the early years of the twentieth century would be to take control of the railroads, but that would be a far cry from occupying the Continent.

my assumption was exactly this - that contrary to one century before - Germany(in this case) could occupy the continent if they trashed France/Russia. As in... occupation a la WW2 - troops over there, not as in Nappy domination(the others accept your precedence). Precisely due to railroads(and in general good progress in transportation overall).

Which doesn't seem like a good business for the Brits, ergo... they should ally the way they did. The whole discussion was not about what would happen if Germany wins, was about having different camps(and I keep my argument that the Brits couldn't rationally switch camps - the only ones that could were Russia, and, to a lesser extent France, though franco-german alliance really looks funky). Prevent anyone from threatening your #1 for as long as you can... that's about the only thing you can do as #1; you don't have that many choices.


You don't think beating France in a few weeks might earn Germany some respect? :confused:

I think precisely that, and I think that was the time when they starting being perceived as a major power. I think that exactly after that war they started being perceived as something that could totally dominate Europe.
Before that war they... kicked AH. Now, really... everyone and their mothers kicked AH; was not a philosophy to kick AH. Ok, A, since H was added after that.

Oh, and Denmark... really...

p.s. - regarding Nappy(I admit I don't know that much of the period) - according to new oxford history of England by Boyd Hilton(on which I've slept well, but didn't quite read it ;) ):

1. bonds at 50% of par in 1797;
2. suspension of bills convertibility(really, that's default in anything but name)
3. mild famine start of 1800s.
4. 200% debt/GDP after the wars, in 1819
5. 36% debase of sterling to gold; commodities up 50%(1797 - 1813)

ok, not a total disaster given the situation, but quite far from drinking tea and doubt it was sustainable in the long run(i.e - if nappy stayed home instead of going in Russia and kept threatening England my money would be on England crumbling).
 
other than the fact that it hasn't happened?

well, hasn't happened outside of extremely limited contexts e.g. gold/diamonds in the Congo basin and certainly not in the context of entire states

Either what you mean by resource management is different from what I understood (control over resources, essentially), or I can think of several modern instances of wars over resources (starting, for example, with the Atacama war back in the 1850s) which contradict that view. Of course all such modern wars of which I'm thinking have some other official cause, some border dispute, popular rebellion, ethnic divisions, whatever is more convenient to legitimize it, but control over resources is the real mover. I'm not saying that all modern wars are primarily over resources (Morocco's invasion of Western Sahara, for example, was also about resources but had more important and older political motives), but there are such cases.
 
The collapse of the United Kingdom into civil war over the Irish Home Rule issue would have been interesting to watch, particularly if the reds decided to roll up their sleeves and pile in (which, given that they actually did so in the historical Irish conflict, was far from impossible).

Really think that would have led to a full-on civil war?
 
Then, if a serious war broke out involving one or more nuclear-armed nation, they'd be going into it with an arsenal of probably a great deal more than two nukes, and with no previous real-life example of how horrible the effects of such weapons can be.

But we've never really had a real-life example of how horrible a Hydrogen Bomb could be anyway. The bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki weren't very impressive in the 'total damage dealt' category. The American Naval/Air Forces were more than capable of doing the same with conventional weaponry.

If multiple powers were to invent nuclear weaponry, you can bet they'd test them, and you can be sure that hydrogen bombs would follow quickly. As long as the nuclear powers also invent strategic delivery platforms (ballistic missiles, submarine launching, hardened/mobile silos) the exact same deterrence logic applies. There's no need to ever see one in action.
 
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