In my current game as Sweden, I have finally built Skolas and finished rationalism. I'm about to pick my ideology, and I'm the third civ to do so. I'm torn between picking order for early adopter bonus (2 free policies) or freedom to synergize with rationalism (but only getting 1 free policy). My question is, how can you tell how public opinion will turn out? At what level of cultural influence do you start seeing the unhappiness malus?