I have proof that Sarah Palin isn't running for president

[downtown]

..because it looks like her Doppelganger, Michelle Bachmann, is

Washington (CNN) – CNN has exclusively learned that Rep. Michele Bachmann will form a presidential exploratory committee. The Minnesota Republican plans to file papers for the committee in early June, with an announcement likely around that same time.

But a source close to the congresswoman said that Bachmann could form the exploratory committee even earlier than June so that she could participate in early Republican presidential debates.

"She's been telling everyone early summer," the source told CNN regarding Bachmann's planned June filing and announcement. But the source said that nothing is static.

"If you [debate sponsors] come to us and say, 'To be in our debates, you have to have an exploratory committee,' then we'll say, 'Okay, fine...I'll go file the forms.'"

Three GOP presidential primary debates are planned before and during early June: The first one on May 2 at the Ronald Reagan Library in Simi Valley, California and another on May 5 in South Carolina. CNN plans a GOP presidential primary debate in New Hampshire in early June.

Meanwhile, CNN has also learned that Iowa Republican state Sen. Kent Sorenson has been hired to be Bachmann's political director for the state - and that Bachmann aides hope to have a complete team together for Iowa by this weekend.

Sorenson is a prominent Tea Party figure in Iowa and holds sway with evangelicals in the state.

The three-term congresswoman hopes to also have political teams in place - very soon - in New Hampshire, home to the first-in-the-nation presidential primary, and South Carolina, host of the first presidential primary in the South.

"I should have state directors in all those states within a week," Bachmann Chief of Staff Andy Parrish said.

So it looks like this is actually happening. Bachmann has been making several trips to South Carolina and New Hampshire, and now is setting up a pretty good ground team in Iowa. I think this is the clearest proof we have that Palin isn't running for President...her numbers have consistently been in the toilet, and I think the "crazy" wing of the GOP is already being cornered in this primary field by Bachmann, Sanatorm, and Cain. Palin is going to be able to project more power, as Brietbart recently said "as a conservative Oprah".

So I know that Bachmann isn't a popular figure in these parts, but I'm curious, what do you think her electoral ceiling is? I think very few people believe she is actually electable, but how far can she go? What does that tell us about the race at large? What does it mean for Palin, or the other candidates?

EDIT Mods, I can't type. if somebody could clean up the typo in the poll, that'd be awesome. Thanks, I love you all.

 

[SuperJay]

Oh this is going to be fun. I can't wait.

 

[Scratch]

It's about time we had someone who is a Constitutional scholar like her. My only worry is that she might be too intellectual and we know how intellectuals tend to be out of touch with mainstream America.

 

[SuperJay]

Looking at the poll... I think she gets top 3 in one of the early states. She's got the tea party thing going; I'm not sure how big that will play in New Hampshire but I suspect it's a big plus for Iowa. I don't think she'll get too far overall, but her candidacy will probably have at least some traction for awhile, until it's eclipsed by a more electable, mainstream GOP candidate.

EDIT: amg I picked the same option as DT, which must be the correct answer. I win!

 

[Rashiminos]

Oh this is going to be fun. I can't wait.

Coincidentally, I know that you can wait, simply because you must and you will. Here's some more popcorn.

Remember... not until the fat lady sings.

***

Given Bachmann's current prominence and known associations with unimpressive candidates (Palin), I think she'll be able to stick it out in the primaries for a time until it can be established which of the lesser known (and therefore more electable) is able to wave around something which looks like better credentials. That would probably mean somewhere between half and two-thirds of the primary campaign season.

 

[Kraznaya]

Bachmann vs Obama would be hilarious all the way up to the point where Bachmann wins.

 

[Ajidica]

Heh. We might have to GOP candidates from Minnesota. Bachmann and Pawlenty.

While Bachmann might do well in the primaries, she has no possible chance of a serious presidential run. In her district (which I think is going to get redrawn this year as it is a bit of a jerrymandered district) I believe she only won with a small margin and that is one of the nuttier districts. She is just too far out there to be a serious candidate and has had some fairly major clashes with the republican leadership so they might be less then eager to support her.

 

[SuperJay]

Coincidentally, I know that you can wait, simply because you must and you will.

SO CLEVER! When I was little and used the phrase "I can't wait" my dad - never one to miss an opportunity - would inevitably reply "what else are you going to do?"

 

[amadeus]

Setting herself up for a 2016/2020 run?

 

[Leoreth]

Oh please not, we Europeans have just cultivated our mixture of hatred and ridicule for Palin, it'll take months to get everyone to know there's a new one around

 

[warpus]

What is it with fools wanting to run for stuff the last 5 years or so? Maybe it's always been like this in the U.S., I dunno..

 

[Ajidica]

Bachmann's easier to ridicule as she has recieved more then a journalism degree from college so we expect her to know more.

 

[Rashiminos]

What is it with fools wanting to run for stuff the last 5 years or so? Maybe it's always been like this in the U.S., I dunno..

The current supposed non-fools are not doing a very good job either. You do not have to be competent to recognize when an incompetent job is being done.

 

[Cutlass]

Has anyone gone to from the House to the White House in the past century without a higher stop in between? I think her chances are nil. But it will be entertaining to see how much of a hash of it and how much money she'll spend in the meantime. She'll be out quickly, and probably will never see the top 3 in any contest.

 

[GhostWriter16]

Has anyone gone to from the House to the White House

All it takes is some white paint

 

[emzie]

If she declares, I will register as a Republican and vote for her in the primary. It would be awesome. Too bad Ohio votes so late.

 

[GhostWriter16]

If she declares, I will register as a Republican and vote for her in the primary. It would be awesome. Too bad Ohio votes so late.

You live in CANADA! How the crap do you vote in our elections?

 

[downtown]

Has anyone gone to from the House to the White House in the past century without a higher stop in between? I think her chances are nil. But it will be entertaining to see how much of a hash of it and how much money she'll spend in the meantime. She'll be out quickly, and probably will never see the top 3 in any contest.

Gerald Ford?

Given that the two heavyweight religious-type crazies may be sitting this one out (Palin and Huckabee), and I don't think its inconceivable that she places very highly in Iowa or South Carolina. I don't think she'll be able to sustain that over the rest of the primary calender.

 

[GhostWriter16]

Iowa? I don't know much about Iowa, but I do know they are one of like nine states to have gay marriages, so they can't be all THAT conservative can they?

 

[downtown]

Iowa? I don't know much about Iowa, but I do know they are one of like nine states to have gay marriages, so they can't be all THAT conservative can they?

Remember, the state at large doesn't vote in these primaries, just the Republicans. Typically, only the more partisan/ideological voters vote in primaries...and Iowa has a very active Evangelical-Christian Republican block, even if the state itself is fairly progressive. Mike Huckabee won Iowa last time, and a similar candidate would have an advantage. I can't imagine a guy like Mitt Romney doing very well in Iowa.