In Detroit, (some) houses cost less than cars
- Thread starter Urederra
- Start date
Urederra
Mostly harmless
Are you MattBrown? Damn you guys who change your usernames? 
JerichoHill
Bedrock of Knowledge
In the meantime, you guys can help us out by reading
1) Iamfacingforeclosure.com
2) Then going to caseyserin.info
3) Help us report his actions to the law enforcement officials in CA.
4) Put an example in jail.
1) Iamfacingforeclosure.com
2) Then going to caseyserin.info
3) Help us report his actions to the law enforcement officials in CA.
4) Put an example in jail.
Help those who don't want to read an enormous amount of text: what is Casey Serin doing that's illegal?
JerichoHill
Bedrock of Knowledge
In summary, Mr. Serin bought 8 homes in 4 states , using stated-income loans when was he unemployed and had no income (thusly committing felony mortgage fraud), recieved undisclosed (and thereby illegal) cash-back at closing, and has since had 3 homes fall into foreclosure with 2 more expected by the end of the month.
In the meantime, he has racked up 200K in CC debt, and several unpaid loans. He has remained unemployed, not paid that debt, and we don't know where his cashback went, but we do know that he eats out constantly, travels to Tahoe, and takes vacation because he works so hard. We know some of it went to pay for seminars with Russ Whitney, Nueavo Riche University, and Kiwasaki , all of whom are scam artists.
We know that he is trying to start a shell corporation to fraudlently obtain more funds.
In the meantime, he has racked up 200K in CC debt, and several unpaid loans. He has remained unemployed, not paid that debt, and we don't know where his cashback went, but we do know that he eats out constantly, travels to Tahoe, and takes vacation because he works so hard. We know some of it went to pay for seminars with Russ Whitney, Nueavo Riche University, and Kiwasaki , all of whom are scam artists.
We know that he is trying to start a shell corporation to fraudlently obtain more funds.
I don't know how this will play out but my sense is it's regional. In large part because in markets like real estate perceptions shape reality. And information markets almost by definition shape those perceptions. Currently the information market (IE sensational blogs) is selling "crisis" in real estate based on a bona fide crisis in sub-prime lending. But it is far from clear whether we are looking a sector wide meltdown or a simple adjustment to a tightening in underwriting standards.
When I see Fremont and Accredited sell their loan portfolios at deep discounts it tells me that the market is interested in these low quality loans.
Accredited gave up some very interesting terms with the hedge fund that bailed them out. With that said exiting the subprime market altogether tells me with an agnostic eye for opportunity there's probably a lot of noise in the media.
Detroit is different than any other market in the US. Not only did housing decline in 2006 but auto sales were down 10% as well. Not a very dynamic duo for Detroit. I can guarantee anyone who sold in Chicago two years ago anticipating this bubble is not particularly happy. Then again we don't have the level of speculation in the market like Vegas and Phoenix.
Here's something interesting for you guys to read. One thing that's undoubtedly been drawn out by this latest subprime issue is fraud.
There's a company called Clayton Holdings that researches loans for investors. The division is called CSI Subprime.
Here's a recent article about some of their findings. (interesting to note that Detroit has 2 of the top 10 most fraudulent zip codes in the US)
When I see Fremont and Accredited sell their loan portfolios at deep discounts it tells me that the market is interested in these low quality loans.
Accredited gave up some very interesting terms with the hedge fund that bailed them out. With that said exiting the subprime market altogether tells me with an agnostic eye for opportunity there's probably a lot of noise in the media.
Detroit is different than any other market in the US. Not only did housing decline in 2006 but auto sales were down 10% as well. Not a very dynamic duo for Detroit. I can guarantee anyone who sold in Chicago two years ago anticipating this bubble is not particularly happy. Then again we don't have the level of speculation in the market like Vegas and Phoenix.
Here's something interesting for you guys to read. One thing that's undoubtedly been drawn out by this latest subprime issue is fraud.
There's a company called Clayton Holdings that researches loans for investors. The division is called CSI Subprime.
Here's a recent article about some of their findings. (interesting to note that Detroit has 2 of the top 10 most fraudulent zip codes in the US)
Spoiler :
Mise
isle of lucy
I don't know much about the US property market, but in the UK, getting on the property ladder offers an unparalleled level of financial security for the balance of your life. I can appreciate how all but falling off the ladder in such a dramatic way must be devastating for the people involved.
Couldn't the government have done something to protect those that bought homes in the area, by preventing such speculation and inflated prices through interest rates? How much of the crash is due to sensationalised information markets, and how much is due to genuine market adjustment? Are there any winners in all of this?
Couldn't the government have done something to protect those that bought homes in the area, by preventing such speculation and inflated prices through interest rates? How much of the crash is due to sensationalised information markets, and how much is due to genuine market adjustment? Are there any winners in all of this?
The problem was the area more than anything else. Detroit is in bad shape due to their highly concentrated major employers (auto and related) there are getting crushed. From what I understand the state is not very helpful nor pro business so I'm sure tax receipts and property taxes are getting crushed too.
The nation was up 6% but the one state was down was Michigan (Detroit) at 0.4%.
I think these blogs simply perpetuate irrational behavior and I question how they can broad stroke real estate this way. The only point in history where the US has had a national decline in real estate was the depression. We also had 25% unemployment. We've seen regional downturns like California, early 90's, when 100,000 aerospace workers were layed off.
Related to Detroit? Probably not. Unemployment runs near 14 percent , a third of the population lives in poverty and leads the nation in new foreclosure filings. Not a particularly good real estate market and it’s not getting better since Michigan was the only state where prices didn’t go up last year.
JerichoHill
Bedrock of Knowledge
Whomp.
Our house has had 100% appreciation in 3 years. Nothing has changed demographically or economy-wise in the NoVa area.
ALso, DC's housing market got hit hard when this same thing happened in the 90s. It wasn't just Cali.
Therefore, I conclude that its not all hype. The mortgage industry used new tactics and programs to flood the market with buyers who were awash in credit, and there was a feeding frenzy. Now credit is drying up, and folks are realizing that 20% appreciation a year is wholly unrealistic (same for 10%)...
The subprimes are being bought for 30 cents or so on the dollar. Pension funds heads are getting a little nervous because they bought into these mortgage backed securities.
Its also getting apparent that alot of the HEL or HELOCs went to debt financed consumption, rather than financing asset accural (like additions or renovations to homes). Not good. We also know property taxes are now out of whack with the real value of the property.
The bubble areas themselves are highly localized, and its those localities that are really going to be seeing a glut of supply, and with lesser demand due to much more stringer credit regulations (I anticipate a SOX style action by Congress this year).
In the meantime, the economy is slowing and inflation isn't going away. Sounds like a wonderful election cycle.
Greenspan seems to think that the subprime problem is affecting the likelihood of recession, making it more likely. According to him, its a 1 out of 3 shot.
Our house has had 100% appreciation in 3 years. Nothing has changed demographically or economy-wise in the NoVa area.
ALso, DC's housing market got hit hard when this same thing happened in the 90s. It wasn't just Cali.
Therefore, I conclude that its not all hype. The mortgage industry used new tactics and programs to flood the market with buyers who were awash in credit, and there was a feeding frenzy. Now credit is drying up, and folks are realizing that 20% appreciation a year is wholly unrealistic (same for 10%)...
The subprimes are being bought for 30 cents or so on the dollar. Pension funds heads are getting a little nervous because they bought into these mortgage backed securities.
Its also getting apparent that alot of the HEL or HELOCs went to debt financed consumption, rather than financing asset accural (like additions or renovations to homes). Not good. We also know property taxes are now out of whack with the real value of the property.
The bubble areas themselves are highly localized, and its those localities that are really going to be seeing a glut of supply, and with lesser demand due to much more stringer credit regulations (I anticipate a SOX style action by Congress this year).
In the meantime, the economy is slowing and inflation isn't going away. Sounds like a wonderful election cycle.
Greenspan seems to think that the subprime problem is affecting the likelihood of recession, making it more likely. According to him, its a 1 out of 3 shot.
That was my next question. If you know he's committed so many crimes, why is he not in prison?
JerichoHill
Bedrock of Knowledge
The hands of justice are not swift.
I suspect that forces are waiting for the remainder of the foreclosures to hit, or for banks to file civil suits, or for the IRS to come in with a really easy case of tax evasion. Kid's going to have to pay taxes on the sum of all the differences between what the house was valued at and whatthe bank got...likely to be well over 500K. That's AMT territory. With no money to pay it, its a very easy conviction.
I suspect thats whats going on
I suspect that forces are waiting for the remainder of the foreclosures to hit, or for banks to file civil suits, or for the IRS to come in with a really easy case of tax evasion. Kid's going to have to pay taxes on the sum of all the differences between what the house was valued at and whatthe bank got...likely to be well over 500K. That's AMT territory. With no money to pay it, its a very easy conviction.
I suspect thats whats going on
The guy is screwed. He must be a sociopath to blog the damn thing. Who does that?
Amongst the things he's up on.
http://caselaw.lp.findlaw.com/cacodes/ccp/725a%2D730.5.html
Amongst the things he's up on.
- Acceleration of debt as authorized by the security instrument (Deed of Trust/Mortgage).
- Criminal prosecution, which may result in possible fines, imprisonment or both.
- Civil action by multiple groups for damages.
- Civil action by other parties to the transaction such as seller or real estate
agent/broker. - Forfeiture of any professional license.
- Long term adverse effect on credit history.
- The federal penalty for mortgage fraud is 10 years in prison and/or $1 million dollar fine.
http://caselaw.lp.findlaw.com/cacodes/ccp/725a%2D730.5.html
Don't scare me, I just bought a house!
Mind you, there's a different economic climate in Canada right now. What happens in the US always has an impact here, but I'm still hopeful that we will weather the storm (the debt problem isn't as bad here).
Fugitive Sisyphus
Escape Artist
Wasn't the big story before about housing prices that they were too high?
Anyway, I just wish Americans from the common citizen to the highest positions in government were more fiscally responsible.
Anyway, I just wish Americans from the common citizen to the highest positions in government were more fiscally responsible.
innonimatu
the resident Cassandra
- Joined
- Dec 4, 2006
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Maimonides
Emperor
I don't understand all of these news reports of fraudsters claiming false incomes to get a loan. When I refinanced my mortgage, I had to provide proof of my income. Any lendor that hands out a loan based on a voluntarily stated & unverified income deserves to go out of business. It's utter stupidity.
I really hate that guy. There are decent people out there who work long hours, live frugally, and barely make it by, while that no-account schmuck thinks he's entitled to nice things despite having done nothing but lose money he doesn't have. Hundreds of thousands in debt, and he won't even condescend to get a real job!
classical_hero
In whom I trust
Same here. I wish there was bubble like that to burst, but I doubt that it will happen. The price of Housing in Perth has quadrupled in the fast few years.
