Iran refuses EU's nuclear offer

[Marla_Singer]

Note #3:

I don't like the idea of nuclear Iran either, but the "Iran is going to give the bomb to Osama" crap is completely wrong. Iran doesn't seem to be bent on provoking it's own self destruction. As it appears now, they just want nukes to detter the US and Israel from attacking it.

Exactly.

And by the way, this is already an enough bad news to not let them build it. Indeed, I hardly see how an Iran growing as a nuclear power could be a good news for the region. Indeed, Iran could spread its influence a lot easier all over the region and become over there an undisputable power we would have to deal with.

 

[wit>trope]

if america wasnt wasting its time in iraq this whole situation would be settled by america just giving iran a angry look. right now america would have to draft to properlly attack iran. while if they bombed them iran could invade iraq of course i have no doubt the US army and marines would smash a invading iran army, they would have casualties. Nuking Iran is out of the question. Also people who are saying "isreal should do it" are being silly. If isreal does this i could erupt into a Arab-Israeli war again.

What about the option of blockading? It was discussed by a military analyst and officer (probably retired) on TV and it's in the link I gave. Other options include special forces, I believe.

Saying Israel should do it isn't silly. A Muslim-Israeli war (Iran is not Arab ...) would be bad and it COULD happen but many things COULD happen .. what we KNOW WILL happen is greater hositility between Israel and Islam and if you ask me that's better than greater hostility between America and Islam.

If iran gets the bomb. They will be able to pressure other nations. But only israel. Because 3 nukes would be enough to wipe israel out.

I'm guessing that if Iran lobs 3 nukes at Israel, that Israel will launch ALL its nukes (keeping a few in reserve) at all of the Islamic countries in the "greater Middle East" ... Israel in the strict sense can't be wiped out since Judaism considers ALL Jews, everywhere, to be "children of Israel." The stated goal of Iran is to destroy Israel ... that's one reason it's critical to stop Iran, especially from Israel's POV.

 

[wit>trope]

Iran doesn't want to fight proxy wars, it just want the nukes and missiles which can deliver it to Israel and other US allies. And you're wrong, it will protect them. US won't dare to attack country, which can relatiate with nuclear weapons. Look at North Korea.

IIRC, Bush Administration officials have said that there's a difference between NK and Iran ... nothing recent I know of that they have said however. NK and Iran are different. NK is motivated by self-interest and in that sense rational. Iran is beholden to radical ultratraditional clericalist Islam and provides aid to terrorist groups and is suspected in some terrorist attacks. A nuke-armed NK is much more desirable than a nuke-armed Iran. A nuke-armed NK can be tolerated. A nuke-armed Iran cannot be tolerated, IMO.

 

[wit>trope]

One small note for you - you don't have smart nukes. Nukes aren't smart. You don't even have those nice and clean bunker busting nukes, because you can build them. All you have are good old nukes.

The "nice" nukes or whatever you want to call them were discussed within the US government as a possible strategy in the Iraq war. When word of this got out, some left-wing Democrats made a big fuss about it ... as if we shouldn't consider ALL our options If you don't consider something, you'll never know if it's a good idea or not.

If you ever use the nuclear weapons during an unprovoked invasion of some third country, rest assured that present anti-americanism in the world will quadruple and you will loose the support of the rest of your allies (including Japan).

I wonder if they can make it so that its nuclear nature is not apparent. If the explosion is underground, then maybe no one will know its a nuke ... and if there's evidence of a tiny bit of radiation leakage and the target is a nuclear facility, then the govt could say that the radiation is a result of the destruction of the nuke facility and not from a nuke bomb.

 

[von_Seydlitz]

Well.. one of the main reasons for Iran and North Korea to build the bomb is obviously that this seems to be the only for them to prevent a invasion (excluding a regime change that would exactly fit to that what the US want, maybe). Isn't it?

 

[JohnRM]

Well.. one of the main reasons for Iran and North Korea to build the bomb is obviously that this seems to be the only for them to prevent a invasion (excluding a regime change that would exactly fit to that what the US want, maybe). Isn't it?

Yeah, cause it was all about suspense as to why the U.S. has waited more than fifty years to invade North Korea and thirty years to invade Iran. We thought it would spice things up to wait until we are at our weakest point militarily, to invade.

 

[Jerry Kraut]

IIRC, Bush Administration officials have said that there's a difference between NK and Iran ... nothing recent I know of that they have said however. NK and Iran are different. NK is motivated by self-interest and in that sense rational. Iran is beholden to radical ultratraditional clericalist Islam and provides aid to terrorist groups and is suspected in some terrorist attacks. A nuke-armed NK is much more desirable than a nuke-armed Iran. A nuke-armed NK can be tolerated. A nuke-armed Iran cannot be tolerated, IMO.

A nuke-armed NK ist not much more desirable than a nuke-armed Iran. With nukes NK has some kind of card blanche to attack SK! NK is way worse than Iran and Iraq together! Their soldiers are fanatics, their leaders are lunatics and its govt is as ruthless as the govt of Nazi Germany!
Iran may not use a nuke just to save the lifes of other Muslims 'cause I think Irans govt is some kind of more reasonable. But Kim Jong-Il is another case... He doesn't bother to let his own people starve to death, and doesn't care if 'criminals' (their crime was to think different) are sent to concentration camps where biological weapons are tested on 'em... Do you think he woul hesitate to use nukes against Seoul, Japan or U.S. Soldiers?

 

[Azadre]

I just read at CIA and other places that one of Iran's economic troubles is the fact it relies too much on an undiversified economy. AKA, all oil. If the population trends continue, Iran will have to import its oil to keep the nation running. Nuclear power is a viable alternative.

 

[Sanaz]

I just read at CIA and other places that one of Iran's economic troubles is the fact it relies too much on an undiversified economy. AKA, all oil. If the population trends continue, Iran will have to import its oil to keep the nation running. Nuclear power is a viable alternative.

Thanks for mentioning this, this is the most important point. They actually need nuclear power to survive economically. To improve their economic situation, they need to export every drop of oil possible.

 

[Marla_Singer]

I just read at CIA and other places that one of Iran's economic troubles is the fact it relies too much on an undiversified economy. AKA, all oil. If the population trends continue, Iran will have to import its oil to keep the nation running. Nuclear power is a viable alternative.

Well... Iranians already master nuclear civil technology. They don't need any research about it. Furthermore, oil isn't already a problem for the country... There's no problem for them to continue to use oil in their power plants. All this to say that there's no rush.

I hardly believe Iran would take the risk to alienate the International community simply in order to diversify their economy... It's not as if there weren't any other industries than the nuclear one in this world.

 

[stormbind]

Obviously, like everyone else, Iran desires nuclear power stations. It would be unfair to halt production of civilian installations, but it troubles me that Iran has refused the EU's amiable offer.

It also troubles me that the USA is afraid to take military action. Perhaps this presents an opportunity for strengthened diplomatic ties between the UK and China: they could invade Iran together, leaving the Americans free to quiver inside the walls of Baghdad

It also confuses me that neither Pakistan or India have expressed an interest in this matter - do they want Islamic nuclear warheads in their "backyard"?

Perhaps the quietest solution is to send James Bond to thwart Iranian efforts to build any atomic bombs.

 

[eyrei]

I just want to know why they are being so secretive if everything is for civilian purposes...

 

[Azadre]

Well... Iranians already master nuclear civil technology. They don't need any research about it. Furthermore, oil isn't already a problem for the country... There's no problem for them to continue to use oil in their power plants. All this to say that there's no rush.

I hardly believe Iran would take the risk to alienate the International community simply in order to diversify their economy... It's not as if there weren't any other industries than the nuclear one in this world.

You have to refine Uranium to operate a nuclear plant. The world does not want Iran to even refine, thus no nuclear power. Ayatollah Khamenei has declared a fatwa against creation, stockpiling or use of nuclear bombs. He stated that the use is unIslamic and he is right. So I seriously doubt that Iran will go against that.

 

[Azadre]

I just want to know why they are being so secretive if everything is for civilian purposes...

The IAEA is monitoring everything, as far as I know.

 

[stormbind]

I just want to know why they are being so secretive if everything is for civilian purposes...

Iraq was secretive too! It was an effort to hide weaknesses, as in bravado. This behaviour could be a cultural phenomena and trying to see through it might be taken by them as an insult.

 

[Marla_Singer]

You have to refine Uranium to operate a nuclear plant. The world does not want Iran to even refine, thus no nuclear power.

Where is the emergency for Iran to refine uranium now ? I'm really interested in knowing what that emergency is because it needs to be a severe one in order to force Iran to take the choice to alienate most of the international community...

Ayatollah Khamenei has declared a fatwa against creation, stockpiling or use of nuclear bombs. He stated that the use is unIslamic and he is right. So I seriously doubt that Iran will go against that.

Yeah. Khamenei told that nuclear bombs were naughty. I believe too that nuclear bombs are naughty... however, I'm still glad that my country is a nuclear power because it guarantees its independence on the international scene. Maybe Iranians are thinking like me I don't know.

 

[Azadre]

Where is the emergency for Iran to refine uranium now ? I'm really interested in knowing what that emergency is because it needs to be a severe one in order to force Iran to take the choice to alienate most of the international community...

Iran needs to adjust economically. From CIA.gov "Iran's economy is marked by a bloated, inefficient state sector, over reliance on the oil sector, and statist policies that create major distortions throughout. Most economic activity is controlled by the state. Private sector activity is typically small-scale - workshops, farming, and services. President KHATAMI has continued to follow the market reform plans of former President RAFSANJANI, with limited progress. Relatively high oil prices in recent years have enabled Iran to amass some $30 billion in foreign exchange reserves, but have not eased economic hardships such as high unemployment and inflation."

I am sure you have heard the saying "don't smoke your own stash". Iran wants to be able to create an alternative route. And the burden upon the infrastructure is going to be increase each year. What would you do?

 

[Marla_Singer]

I am sure you have heard the saying "don't smoke your own stash". Iran wants to be able to create an alternative route. And the burden upon the infrastructure is going to be increase each year. What would you do?

I doubt hiring youngers in nuclear power plants is really the way needed for Iran to reach economic recovery. Especially knowing we're talking about a country where oil is almost FREE.

Come on Azadre, how can you swallow this ?

 

[Savage Discipil]

Iran needs to adjust economically. From CIA.gov "Iran's economy is marked by a bloated, inefficient state sector, over reliance on the oil sector, and statist policies that create major distortions throughout. Most economic activity is controlled by the state. Private sector activity is typically small-scale - workshops, farming, and services. President KHATAMI has continued to follow the market reform plans of former President RAFSANJANI, with limited progress. Relatively high oil prices in recent years have enabled Iran to amass some $30 billion in foreign exchange reserves, but have not eased economic hardships such as high unemployment and inflation."

I am sure you have heard the saying "don't smoke your own stash". Iran wants to be able to create an alternative route. And the burden upon the infrastructure is going to be increase each year. What would you do?

Maybe If Iran didnt have such an econmoicaly crapy government they wouldnt be in such a sittuation

 

[luiz]

I too don't see why a country with such abundance of oil would need atomic energy for pacific use. That said, it is their right to have atomic energy. Nevertheless I still think the world will get more dangerous because of that.