Iran, the Red Sea, and the West (tm).

This is interesting...at least for me!
(site auto translation by google)

The US used one of the greatest milestones of military engineering in Iran: the B-2 Spirit​

Curiously there was a second force of B2s flying westward over the Pacific ocean. They flew over populated areas in US to be easily seen since it was a deception to make iranians think the attack was coming from east (as last time the B2s attacked Iraq) when in reality the real attacking force came from the Mediterranean. This second force never reached iran, it landed in Guam in the Pacific before returning to US.

Apparently the B2s were scorted by F-22 fighters and supported by F-35 and other aircraft as F-16 and F-18 Growler from the carriers in the zone for SEAD and ECM roles. So a big expensive operation, possibly for delaying Iran program a few months only, a year or two at most.
 
Last edited:
So a big expensive operation, possibly for delaying Iran program a few months only, a year or two at most.
Based on what? Because some leaker at the Pentagon told CNN it failed? I am not impressed.

The lack of ground troops to really verify this stuff leads us to one of several possibilities thus far:
1) Israel and the US play up the damage to take a "victory lap" and move the politics onto another issue entirely. Air attacks with no losses to you tend to be a very cheap (political) investment.
2) Israel and the US downplay the damage in order to invite more support from their legislatures to increasing the number of attacks.
3) Iran plays up the damage to:
3a) "holler uncle" because they truly cannot tolerate any more attacks without greater military collapse.
3b) lie and claim the program is basically destroyed so as to move/restart it elsewhere.
4) Iran downplays the damage because they will basically have conceded to their people that their country is indefensible and that a nuke program cannot protect them.
or 5) we don't know anything just yet...
 
Based on what? Because some leaker at the Pentagon told CNN it failed? I am not impressed.

The lack of ground troops to really verify this stuff leads us to one of several possibilities thus far:
1) Israel and the US play up the damage to take a "victory lap" and move the politics onto another issue entirely. Air attacks with no losses to you tend to be a very cheap (political) investment.
2) Israel and the US downplay the damage in order to invite more support from their legislatures to increasing the number of attacks.
3) Iran plays up the damage to:
3a) "holler uncle" because they truly cannot tolerate any more attacks without greater military collapse.
3b) lie and claim the program is basically destroyed so as to move/restart it elsewhere.
4) Iran downplays the damage because they will basically have conceded to their people that their country is indefensible and that a nuke program cannot protect them.
or 5) we don't know anything just yet...
We know there was not any increase in radioactivity after the attack and we know 400kg of U235 at 60% can be transported in a van. (BTW there is some imaginery with a lot of trucks at the entrance of the Fordow the day before the attack, so they have moved more than the enriched uranium probably):

skynews-fordow-maxar-iran_6947877.jpg


The purification plants, if they have truly been destroyed, which we don't know, can be rebuilt. An uranium purification centrifuge is a fairly simple machine, you need a lot of them to do it quicker but they are not particularly expensive either. It's basically a rotating steel or aluminum cylinder with a couple of tubes through which uranium fluoride is injected and then extracted. The problem is that it's an extremely slow process. Therefore, the important thing is to eliminate those 400 kilos of enriched uranium, which represents many years of purification work and mining/importing/smuggling mineral of uranium. An almost impossible thing to do even with B-2s.
 
Thanks for the explanation. One could argue, though, that radiation leak was only limited to those structures damaged and did not penetrate offsite enough for anyone to detect anything (yet). Assuming there was anything substantive at all to leak. Also, the trucks either could be coming in or going out, I don't know; we just see a whole bunch parked there. Maybe sensitive material was being moved in to the site. So I'm just a little wary of any 30-thousand-foot assessments.
 
Last edited:
for those who don't follow specialist websites and stuff , Israel is rather unhappy with the war it didn't get . And they are so far avoiding to talk about Stormy Daniels talk about something , because they want war and the New America works only with the word of one single individual and his advisers have far too many (ultra) Evangelists in them that do not want Israel in such a dominating position to scare all the Arabs away from war and gas chambers and whatnot .

as such Israelis were quick to say it was their airforce and stuff that escorted the Stealth bombers as if the mission was not agreed with Iranians in the first place . Which doesn't suit Pentagon at all . Nobody can say there was an actual bombing mission in the first place . But it seems there were only 20 individual bombs of the mother of penetrators and they have either run out of bombs or that wasn't very impressive on a real target , so America is now working on a new type . If the thing goes down 60 meters and if this one was at 90 , yeah everybody will be doing 180 next time . So , like , the results are doubtful and Israel wants more war and White House does not . So , contrary to what people here insist on , it is Israelis who doubt the efficiency of aerial strikes and make the relevant noises . Which would create doubts about their own campaign , but veteran observers of Israel since 1960s would only laugh and make random comments about the efficiency of Israeli campaigns in previous times . So impressive only because the Western media told so .

the trucks are earth moving equipment , moving soil and gravel and whatnot into the tunnels . ı had assumed when they were blown out by pressure it would be proof that everything in Fordow had been destroyed . Specialist sites say the dirt would either protect the tunnels during bombardment from pressure or create extra defence if multiple bombs or missiles followed each other by hitting the same impact point . It makes an Israeli commando operation basically impossible . And as a bonus , international experts can not visit the site at least for months , just a couple of weeks after Iran informs international agencies that it had a yet undeclared enrichment facility somewhere in the country .

ı don't think stopping some radiation leak was in mind when closing the tunnels with dirt but it is also talked of .

so , when Israel can't get an air war from the US , it now wants a ground war , because somebody must check the place and that would probably be a whole American division parachuting or airlanding in place . Highly optimistic , if one seeks opinions . Israelis should really take notice that the French media calls it not true , such claims that they managed to kill some 377 000 more Palestinians in Gazze since 2023 or 2012 , above the officially accepted numbers . Arabs , of old and new , are scared of Israel ; to get them act in step with Evangelist fantasies require some serious effort .
 
Thanks for the explanation. One could argue, though, that radiation leak was only limited to those structures damaged and did not penetrate offsite enough for anyone to detect anything (yet). Assuming there was anything substantive at all to leak. Also, the trucks either could be coming in or going out, I don't know; we just see a whole bunch parked there. Maybe sensitive material was being moved in to the site. So I'm just a little wary of any 30-thousand-foot assessments.
I would assume they anticipated such kind of attack and built shelters for the most sensitive stuff with good safety margin.
If some Cold War era bunkers were made to withstand conventional and nuclear hits, it's not beyond Iran's capabilities to build them too.
 
Bombing the entrance to a tunnel complex does little; if the tunnels are wide network of rooms, then big bombs might not affect them much.
 
I would assume they anticipated such kind of attack and built shelters for the most sensitive stuff with good safety margin.
If some Cold War era bunkers were made to withstand conventional and nuclear hits, it's not beyond Iran's capabilities to build them too.
Just something to keep in mind though all this: you'll probably hear certain percentage assessments about levels of destruction and what qualifies as a success. I'm not sure how reliable this will be as a figure as it was in WW2 Germany & Japan. The thing of it is, without power and without oxygen for actual human beings, these spaces, though possibly left standing, would still be dead spaces. "Are they operational?" is the relevant factor.

So while I certainly wouldn't buy Trump boasting that these sites were wiped out for good, nor would any sneering about 'well he didn't get all of it' be very helpful either.
 
Last edited:
this is supreme statesmanship , the best anyone has a right to expect from the political make up of the US after 1967 . And there is no sarcasm in the post , too . Ukranians elsewhere on the web are suggesting they do not demand Israel to destroy global Communism .

I would not use the adjective "supreme", but I agree that Trump and his givernment managed this very well. They recognized and forced a backdown from a likely catastrophic war. Agaisnt the crazies in government in Israel and the vast number of bribed and self-deluded politicans in Washington.
It helps when the military and much of the intellugence people can still tell the difference between propaganda and reality, but then they're the ones producing it, they soudl know. The people ordering it, though...
It is too much to hope that they will dial down on that, ignore orders?

I any case I maintain, it is not resolved. Highly likely it'll restart before the end of the year. It may become stable if/when the government in Isrel falls.
 
Just something to keep in mind though all this: you'll probably hear certain percentage assessments about levels of destruction and what qualifies as a success. I'm not sure how reliable this will be as a figure as it was in WW2 Germany & Japan. The thing of it is, without power and without oxygen for actual human beings, these spaces, though possibly left standing, would still be dead spaces. "Are they operational?" is the relevant factor.

So while I certainly wouldn't buy Trump boasting that these sites were wiped out for good, nor would any sneering about 'well he didn't get all of it' be very helpful either.
There is a small gap between "destroyed" and "rendered non-operational", but if bunker is designed to withstand a hit it usually means it can be used further, not that they must build a new one elsewhere. It's usual "armor vs shell" competition, and bunker busters are at disadvantage that bombs and missiles can carry only so much payload, while bunkers (unlike tanks, for example) are not much restricted by armor's weight, size or composition.

Article about the current state of competition:
 
Last edited:
I any case I maintain, it is not resolved. Highly likely it'll restart before the end of the year. It may become stable if/when the government in Isrel falls.

I reckon it’ll take longer than 6 months to replenish missile stocks of both countries and to rebuild/replace the smashed AA defences. This war served Netanyahu well in continuing to divert attention, in the same vein the attention was conveniently directed away from LA protests.

So, I guess, it’s victory all around for warmongering bros. And an opportunity to reignite the flames when the absolute need for that reappears.

 
There is also the problem in knowing where the bunker actually is.

Knowing where the entrance tunnels are doesn't tell you that.

I suppose they might have sneaked a drone or two in with a gravity meter
over the area at a low level to detect the gravitational anomaly, but they'd
need to compensate for the acceleration of the drone on the meter.
 
it was back in 71 or 72 when USAF supposedly drove a lazer guided bomb throigh the hole the first one had opened to destroy the turbines of an hydroelectric dam in North Vietnam . This means Hamaney knew he could be killed on the basis of whenever and whereever even during the war with Iraq in which the professionals meaning the officers trained during the Shah's time were calling for the use of high tech instead of human waves . As long as he is not dead , he has power . More power than anyone on the web who calls him weak , to begin with . Israel wanted a long war with deaths running into millions , because whom they haven't killed today , they will have to fight tomorrow . The losses among the Westerners included . When the internet was full of reports on how Israel had 12 days of worth of SAMs left against a rather limited Iranian attack , business won by a break in the fight so that the stocks can be replenished . The market for COIN stuff is supposedly saturated and now covered by extensive drone use anyhow . The real goal (of Evangelists and stuff) is a war against Turks . For this , there has to be an Iranian nuclear deterrent even if it is long out in the open that there is no Article V in NATO . As such , there is absolutely zero percent damage in the stocks Iranians will wave in the air , to be declared real and functional when New Turkey is prodded hard enough to fight .
 
There is also the problem in knowing where the bunker actually is.

Knowing where the entrance tunnels are doesn't tell you that.

I suppose they might have sneaked a drone or two in with a gravity meter
over the area at a low level to detect the gravitational anomaly, but they'd
need to compensate for the acceleration of the drone on the meter.
IAEA inspection would do the job just fine.
 

Iranian government turns to internal crackdown with arrests, executions​

Officials and activists say hundreds have been arrested, three executions reported

Iranian authorities are pivoting from a ceasefire with Israel to intensify an internal security crackdown across the country with mass arrests, executions and military deployments, particularly in the restive Kurdish region, officials and activists say.

Within days of Israel's airstrikes beginning on June 13, Iranian security forces started a campaign of widespread arrests accompanied by an intensified street presence based around checkpoints, sources have told CBC and Reuters.

One man in Tehran, who responded to a CBC News callout via WhatsApp but did not provide his name, said Wednesday that security officers are stopping people at pop-up checkpoints around the city and asking them to show their phones and open their messaging apps.

"It will take you only one tweet or one social network post to be arrested if the content is believed sensitive by the state," he said.

Another man told CBC he feels "a deep sense of fear" that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and his regime may have secured their survival and will turn their anger inward as they did in the 1980s, with crackdowns on their own people and mass executions.

Some in Israel and exiled opposition groups had hoped the military campaign, which targeted Revolutionary Guards and internal security forces as well as nuclear sites, would spark a mass uprising and the overthrow of the Islamic Republic.

But Alam Saleh, speaking with CBC from Tehran Wednesday, said he knows many Iranians who were critical of the regime and have changed tone in recent days, now rallying around the flag in the face of what they see as an unprovoked and unjustified war.

"What was the point, what Israel and United States has achieved, in bombing Iran for 12 days?" Saleh said.

"The only thing that they probably achieved is to make Iran never, never again trust these two countries."

There has been no sign yet of any significant protests against the authorities.

However, one senior Iranian security official and two other senior officials briefed on internal security issues said the authorities were focused on the threat of possible internal unrest, particularly in Kurdish areas.

Revolutionary Guard and Basij paramilitary units were put on alert and internal security was now the primary focus, said the senior security official.

The official said authorities were worried about Israeli agents, ethnic separatists and the People's Mujahideen Organisation of Iran, an exiled opposition group that has previously staged attacks inside Iran.

Activists within the country are lying low.

"We are being extremely cautious right now because there's a real concern the regime might use this situation as a pretext," a rights activist in Tehran, who was jailed during mass protests in 2022, told Reuters.

The activist said he knew dozens of people who had been summoned by authorities and either arrested or warned against any expressions of dissent.

Kurdish groups say they're being targeted​

Iranian rights group HRNA said on Monday it had recorded arrests of 705 people on political or security charges since the start of the war.

Many of those arrested have been accused of spying for Israel, HRNA said.

Iranian state media reported three were executed on Tuesday in Urmia, near the Turkish border, and the Iranian-Kurdish rights group Hengaw said they were all Kurdish.

Iran's Foreign and Interior Ministries did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

One of the officials briefed on security said troops had been deployed to the borders of Pakistan, Iraq and Azerbaijan to stop infiltration by what the official called terrorists.

The other official briefed on security acknowledged that hundreds had been arrested.

Iran's mostly Sunni Muslim Kurdish and Baluch minorities have long been a source of opposition to the Islamic Republic, chafing against rule from the Persian-speaking, Shia government in Tehran.

The three main Iranian Kurdish separatist factions based in Iraqi Kurdistan said some of their activists and fighters had been arrested and described widespread military and security movements by Iranian authorities.

Ribaz Khalili from the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (KDPI) said Revolutionary Guards units had deployed in schools in Iran's Kurdish provinces within three days of Israel's strikes beginning and gone house-to-house for suspects and arms.

The Guards had taken protective measures too, evacuating an industrial zone near their barracks and closing major roads for their own use in bringing reinforcements to Kermanshah and Sanandaj, two major cities in the Kurdish region.

A cadre from the Free Life Party of Kurdistan (PJAK), who gave her nom de guerre of Fatma Ahmed, said the party had counted more than 500 opposition members being detained in Kurdish provinces since the airstrikes began.

Ahmed and an official from the Kurdish Komala party, who spoke on condition of anonymity, both described checkpoints being set up across Kurdish areas with physical searches of people as well as checks of their phones and documents.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/iran-internal-crackdown-1.7570782
 
well the Ayatollah has resurfaced and hasn't changed a bit; declares victory.


Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei congratulated Iranians for what he described as a victory over Israel and the United States, in a defiant video message that appeared to be his first public statement since U.S. war planes bombed three of the country’s nuclear facilities on Sunday.
...
There were no clear signs from the video as to when the recording was made. Mr. Khamenei was seated in front of a beige curtain, with an Iranian flag to his left and a photograph of the Islamic Republic’s first leader, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomenei, hanging above him — an identical setting to the last video message he released since the start of the recent conflict with Israel.


Fascinating BBC article.


To my mind it mixes obvious truths with delusional wishful thinking.
in light of this most recent news, yes, this sounds far too hopeful.

It is now "Hitler in the bunker" mentality type stuff and he'll probably be content in taking down the whole country with him or else betray the revolution. And what will people's lives be worth without it? That is the singular purpose of the state.
 
Back
Top Bottom