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March 07 - Despite viоlence only 26% preferred life under Saddam
Source: http://www.opinion.co.uk/Newsroom_details.aspx?NewsId=67
http://www.opinion.co.uk/Documents/FINALTables.pdf
a few more articles to go with it:
Iraqis: life is getting better
Source: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/iraq/article1530762.ece
Viоlence slashed as troop surge hits Baghdad
Source: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/iraq/article1530529.ece
March 07 - Despite viоlence only 26% preferred life under Saddam
One in four (26%) Iraqi аdults have had a family relative murdered in the last three years, while 23% of those living in Baghdad have had a family/relative kidnapped in the last three years.
These are among the findings released today from the largest poll into Iraqi opinion ever to be published. Carried out by UK research firm ORB, which has been tracking public opinion in Iraq since 2005, the poll shows that despite the horrendous personal security problems only 26% of the country preferred life under the previous regime of Saddam Hussein, with almost half (49%) preferring life under the current political system. As one may expect, it is the Sunnis who are most likely to back the previous regime (51%) with the Shias (66%) preferring the current arrangements.
Carried out amongst a nationally representative sample of 5,019 Iraqi adults aged 18 years+ and coming just days before the fourth anniversary of the invasion of Iraq, the poll reveals that despite the large number of civilian deaths each month, largely as a result of militia activity, only 27% believe that their country is actually in a state of civil war. Opinion here is clearly divided, as 22% feel we are close to a state of civil war but not yet in one while 18% argue that the country is still some way from civil war.
Regionally, 43% of those in the Shia dominated South believe Iraq will never get as far as civil war. The corresponding figure in the Sunni dominated North plummets to 5% where the strongest sentiment (voiced by 42%) is that the country is already in a state of civil war.
Regionally there are also significant differences in attitudes regarding the security situation and the influence of Multi National Forces (MNF). Nationally a small majority (53%) feels that the security situation in Iraq will get better in the immediate weeks following a withdrawal of the MNF. A quarter (26%) believes the situation will deteriorate with the remainder predicting no change or answering "Don't know."
It is in the South where people most strongly believe that the withdrawal of the MNF will see the security situation improve. By a ratio of nearly seven to one the Shia dominated South feels that the situation will get "a great deal/little better" (69%) rather than "worse" (10%). In the Sunni North however opinion is more evenly divided 46% feel it will get better and 37% feel it will get worse.
What about talk of creating a federal Iraq? With the exception of the Kurdish population in the North of the country a majority (64%) support Iraq remaining as a single country run by a central national government. On this point Sunnis (57%) and Shias (69%) agree that the country should continue as one nation.
Note:
The opinion poll was conducted by ORB and the survey details are as follows:
Results are based on face-to-face interviews amongst a nationally representative sample of 5,019 adults aged 18 years + throughout Iraq.
The standard margin of error on the sample size is +1.4%
The methodology uses multi-stage random probability sampling and covers every one of the eighteen governorates within Iraq.
Interviews conducted 10th 22nd February 2007.
Source: http://www.opinion.co.uk/Newsroom_details.aspx?NewsId=67
http://www.opinion.co.uk/Documents/FINALTables.pdf
a few more articles to go with it:
Iraqis: life is getting better
MOST Iraqis believe life is better for them now than it was under Saddam Hussein, according to a British opinion poll published today.
The survey of more than 5,000 Iraqis found the majority optimistic despite their suffering in sectarian violence since the American-led invasion four years ago this week.
One in four Iraqis has had a family member murdered, says the poll by Opinion Research Business. In Baghdad, the capital, one in four has had a relative kidnapped and one in three said members of their family had fled abroad. But when asked whether they preferred life under Saddam, the dictator who was executed last December, or under Nouri al-Maliki, the prime minister, most replied that things were better for them today.
Only 27% think there is a civil war in Iraq, compared with 61% who do not, according to the survey carried out last month.
By a majority of two to one, Iraqis believe military operations now under way will disarm all militias. More than half say security will improve after a withdrawal of multinational forces.
Margaret Beckett, the foreign secretary, said the findings pointed to progress. There is no widespread violence in the four southern provinces and the fact that the picture is more complex than the stereotype usually portrayed is reflected in todays poll, she said.
Source: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/iraq/article1530762.ece
Viоlence slashed as troop surge hits Baghdad
KARADEH used to be an affluent shopping area of Baghdad. It boomed for a while after the American invasion as goods flooded into Iraq after years of sanctions. But as sectarian violence intensified, the store fronts became shuttered and shell-pocked.
In a vote of confidence in the surge by US troops, the shops were reopening last week. Hareth Salah, a 24-year-old student, said he had stopped attending courses at his technical college when the surge began last month.
One of my friends was killed by the terorists, he said, but now there are a lot more Iraqi army checkpoints and Im feeling more secure. I feel better; I can go out and do my shopping. More people have opened their stores and the markets are open longer.
As the fourth anniversary of the Iraq war approaches on Tuesday, progress remains uncertain but trends are hopeful.
This is a bit of a rollercoaster ride, said General David Petraeus, the US commander in Iraq. Youre trying to do what is necessary to keep the rollercoaster generally going up, despite the ups and downs and the bumps.
Murderous sectarian checkpoints have melted away as the Iraqi security forces and American troops extend their grip on the capital. Abu Mohammed, a 34-year-old taxi driver, who lives in the largely Shiite Shaab district in northern Baghdad, said: Sometimes I would stop and wait for an hour or two rather than take a chance on passing a fake checkpoint with a customer.
We were so scared; anybody could be followed and assassinated.
Figures released last week by Brigadier Qassim al-Moussawi, an Iraqi military spokesman, showed civilian deaths down from 1,440 in the four weeks before the surge began on February 14 to 265 in the four weeks that followed, although there may have been some undercounting. According to the American military, assassination attempts were down by 50%.
The number of US deaths was also down, from 87 to 66, although the concentration of troops in Baghdad led to an increase of 12% in fatalities in the capital.
Frederick Kagan, a military historian and leading advocate of the surge, said: It is very early days but Im very encouraged by what is happening. America only has two brigades out of five there and we havent even started our major operations yet. I had not expected this little resistance.
Residents of the Iraqi capital are holding their breath. For each hopeful piece of news there seems to be a car bombing or attempted assassination - such as one on the Shiite mayor of Sadr City last week - that threatens their security.
At least I dont see bodies thrown here and there on the road, as in the days before the security plan, said Ramya Ahmed, 35, a Shiite living in Adamiya, a largely Sunni neighbourhood.
A demonstration on Friday by militants loyal to the Mahdi army of the Shiite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr shouting No, no to America has raised fears of a new outbreak of hostilities with the clerics blackshirts.
Vali Nasr, an American expert, said Sadr was still growing in authority. It is very clear the Mahdi army made a strategic decision not to engage the Americans in Baghdad, he said, but it has not been defeated. It is a tactical withdrawal.
Roughly 700 members of Sadrs militia have been arrested and others have fled to Iran. Only the smaller people are left, so everyone is feeling more safe, said one relieved resident.
American forces have moved with relative ease to install joint security stations with the Iraqis in Sadr Citys teeming slums. The number of these mini forts in Baghdad is due to reach 30 in the coming weeks. Some families displaced by ethnic cleansing have returned to check on their homes, although few have felt confident enough to stay.
Car bombings in Baghdad rose to an all-time high of 44 last month, according to a Pentagon spokesman, but troops are now fanning out to the suburbs and to outlying towns such as Baqouba in an effort to uncover bomb-making factories.
The Americans Stryker Brigade combat team was redeployed last week to the area, where there has been a sharp rise in attacks amid signs that Sunni insurgents are regrouping.
An extra combat brigade and more than 2,200 military police are being dispatched to Iraq, which by the end of May or early June will bring the number of additional US troops involved in the surge to 30,000. But James Carafano, a defence expert at the conservative Heritage Foundation, cautioned that an increase in violence was likely during the spring and summer.
The first thing you would expect the bad guys to do is to go to ground, map things out, do some reconnaissance and figure out how to screw things up, he said. You have to get through to next winter before you can say the surge has worked.
Suicide gas attack
Three suicide bombers using lorries loaded with chlorine gas killed eight people and caused 350, including six American soldiers, to fall ill in Fallujah and Ramadi this weekend.
The attacks prompted warnings that the insurgents are turning to new weapons to spread panic. Symptoms ranged from minor skin and lung irritations to vomiting.
Insurgents have detonated three other lorries carrying chlorine since January. Major-General William Caldwell, the American armys spokesman, called it a crude attempt to raise the terror level.
Chlorine gas was deployed as a weapon in the first world war but its use has particular resonance in Iraq. Saddam Hussein turned chemical weapons on Kurdish areas in the 1980s during the Iran-Iraq war. Extra US troops have seen civilian deaths drop from 1,440 in the month before to 265 after
Source: http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/world/iraq/article1530529.ece
