SEP 16, 2014 @ 01:01 PM 3,947 VIEWS
Is Europe In Decline? One Professor Thinks So
http://www.forbes.com/sites/shelliekarabell/2014/09/16/is-europe-in-decline-one-professor-thinks-so/
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Webber of INSEAD believes Europe has segued from a rising power to a declining power.
In his article, Declining Power Europe? The Evolution of the European Unions World Power in the Early 21st Century, to appear in the March 2015 issue of International Affairs, the scholarly journal published by Wiley-Blackwell on behalf of Chatham House, The Royal Institute of International Affairs, Webber defines power as Consisting in the capacity to cause other (extra-EU) actors to behave in ways that the EU wants and they would not do otherwise.
He outlines three power resources: two material hard powers: military (the threat or use of force) and economic (deploying sanctions or denying market access) and one normative soft power: ideology (persuasion or diplomacy). His analysis shows that the EUs power is declining because of the decline of its material capabilities that is, in its inability to marshall military and/or economic might.
Webber divides the EUs multi-dimensional operations and thus its power base into seven areas:
Regulatory politics enforcing the EUs single market, with the result that Brussels (where the EU is headquartered) has impolitely become known as the regulatory capital of the world. A look at the legal cases facing Google and Amazon over everything from corporate taxation to data privacy are current examples. It was the EUs anti-trust unit which nixed GEs ill-fated merger with Honeywell in Jack Welshs last days as GE CEO. The EUs regulatory power is one which has grown by leaps and bounds.
Environmental Politics The EU is on record as wanting to be a world leader in this issue, particularly in climate change politics. But the disastrous culmination of the Copenhagen Summit in 2009 in which the EU was not even part of the decisive negotiations rendered the EU marginalized and defeated
External trade policy Given its market size, the EU should wield power at meetings of the World Trade Organization and it did in the 1990s; today the hard evidence is to the contrary. During the Doha Round (which started in 2001 and is virtually moribund though not officially dead) agreements fell apart when newly-developing countries such as Brazil, India, China and South Africa became unhappy with the deal they were getting (particularly regarding agricultural protection).
Monetary and fiscal policy The Euro was launched as an accounting currency in 1999 (the currency itself entered peoples pockets in 2001) with the hopes that it would eventually supersede the US Dollar as the international reserve currency. While the euro currently trades above its introductory rate, Webber points out that in 2012 the USD was still 2.5 times more widely held than the Euro. Moreover, as the financial crisis forced weaker EU members such as Hungary and Romania (and Eurozone members Greece, Portugal, and Ireland) to seek aid from the IMF, Webber points out there is now unprecedented scope for external organizations to influence Eurozone monetary and fiscal policy.
Security and defence policy Though the Yugoslavian cvil war in the 1990s was literally in Europes backyard, it took US military and diplomatic intervention to bring hostilities to a close. But it did galvanize the EU (led by the British and the French) to create a rapid reaction force and a new European Security and Defence Policy (ESDP). But defense cuts and conficts among the member states has scaled down the number of troops, abbreviated the number of days per mission, and escalated intramural bickering.
Promotion of democracy and human rights One of the EUs stated aims is to promote democracy, human rights, the rule of law and good governance within member states and the rest of the world, and Webber alleges its ability to do so is a measurement of its normative power. Its influence in influencing the treatment of ethnic minorities by states seeking to join the EU have been relatively successful (i.e., in the Balkans) but its response to Russias annexation of the Crimea has been weak and ineffective, as has its response to the Arab Spring.
Promotion of regional cooperation and integration There were hopes that European integration would proceed as a sort of positive domino effect, improving the economic, social and political climate of member states. But, Webber points out, in the wake of the global and Eurozone financial and other crises, the gravitational pull of the EU has receded. Discussion of the creation of common currencies in other regions of the world has ebbed.
Webber concludes that the EUs power is greatest in issue-areas: regulatory, trade, environmental policy. It is a market, he believes, more than any other kind of power. Though he believes economic power will continue to shift towards the East, Webber told me This decline in the EUs global power could be countered if the EU and its member states could increasingly speak with one voice and act cohesively; however the growing resistance to closer political integration and the resulting inability of EU members states to agree on and implement common policy makes this unlikely.
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