I finished the Wheel and before pottery was finished I could see the borders of 3 AI's withing my borders viewing range (well almost, Pacal is so close it doesn't matter).
With only one military resource and limited room (and everyone's favorite neighbor) I didn't seem to have much choice. After Pottery: Hunting, Archery, HBR. Steal cows from the capital to grow onto cottages quickly. I work the wine at a stagnant pop3 horse city and riverside hills in the cap for every spare commerce point.
2nd city claimed the horses (not happy with the spot but it was an early city for trade commerce and secured the resource). My 3rd city was settled NW to share cows and riverside grasslands for cottages. (First attempt I settled away from willem and learned that you have to really push toward Creative civ's; He settled in a way that destroyed my commerce income and research capacity) ~10ish turns from HBR I realized one more city would completely block Willem (at this point he only had 2 cities) so I chopped a settler and settled my fourth city near the copper and rice.
In my experiences, Pacal is only a threat if he has room to expand which he doesn't. He's only built 2-3 cities at this point. He also has a UU that I'm not excited to tackle with HA's. Willem has only 2 cities and is either really boxed in or wonderspamming (he can wait till later). I'm really worried about Monte. In every game I've met him, he's been a decent techer and DOW's me every time. He's close and leading the field with score and city count. With this in mind it seems I don't really have much of a choice for my war target. I don't look forward to this war as I expect it to be a little late and he's pretty solid at war from what I've seen.
BuG scoreboard tells me that he has been plotting war for ~8 turns now but I've not seen any stacks on my border. Victoria was his worst enemy briefly. I debated waiting a turn or two in hopes that he would DoW on her but decided that this was a war of necessity and earlier is probably better.
After HBR, it's Writing (slider off, I'm using all my pop on whips and hammer tiles anyway) and a chop/whip fest for HA's. I put a barracks in the capital and the 3rd city (Not sure it was worth it, but it has some hills and I can work in some farms so it's production looked to beat the horses town). All cities (except the young 4th copper rice city) have granaries and are whipping HA every time that button lights up.
The screenshots and posted save are from the Turn after DOW(turn 85 iirc). I managed to take a city (which I decide to keep for the FP's and the iron mine in the picture). My initial stack was 5 HA, the defending archer was joined by a magical Jaguar. I lost one HA taking the city.