@Mise: Another thing that greatly improves the chance is that the success is correlated. In the sneaky guard configuration (2, 3, 4 .... 1), not a single prisoner has the right box. However, if a single prisoner is successful (that means he is in a cycle with length =< N/2), all prisoners in his cycle will be successful.
Link: http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/7649/title/Puzzling_Names_in_Boxes
Link: http://www.sciencenews.org/view/generic/id/7649/title/Puzzling_Names_in_Boxes