Liberal Party of Canada Leadership

[sysyphus]

The fun is now beginning, we're still two months away from the final selection, but it's all over the news anyway so why not talk about it here?

So who would you like to see win the leadership? Even if you're not a Liberal supporter, who would you like to see win it, for the sake of the country or for the strategic benefit to one of the other parties?

Personally, I like Gerrard Kennedy best. I doubt he'll win, but he's the most sensible of the group with the least baggage.

 

[pboily]

I think Ignatieff would be a good way for the Liberals to cut ties with corruption, in the sense that it would be easier to say that he had less to do with the Martin scandal and what not. He seems to posess an independent streak as well, which is good.

Stephane Dion, I would run away from this guy with as much speed as I could muster. Bad for the Libs, bad for Canada.

Bob Rae would have a tough time getting in because of past "failures" in Ontario, but I think he would be as good as any other Jack and Jill (including Harper and co) for the country.

I don't know a lot about Kennedy, which is probably a point in his favour.

 

[De Lorimier]

Tie Domi and no one else.

 

[sysyphus]

DeLormier supporting a (former) Leaf eh?

He'll probably be Tie Stronach before long anyway.

pboily, I think your analysis is pretty much on the money, Kennedy is barely known outside of Ontario and the could work for or against him.

Ignatieff is defintely the Liberals best hope for winning the next election. First there's the "not asscociatable with Liberal scandal" thing. His key strong point will be his "Blue Liberal" image. The stronghold ridings are very unlikely to budge in the next election on either side, it will be decided in the swing ridings who notoriously favour "Blue Liberals and Red Tories". Since Harper is clearly not a red Tory, that will improve the Liberals' chances of swinging those in favour of the Libs.

Iggy comes with his own baggage though (supporting Iraq, being to "American"), but none of this is anything Harper could attack. Those who don't like Iggy for those reason would more likely bolt for the NDP.

 

[pboily]

pboily, I think your analysis is pretty much on the money.

Alright then. Mods, let's close this thread.

 

[Cuivienen]

Kennedy is both the best choice from a political perspective AND the best choice for the Liberals if they want to win the next election.

Rae would be a disaster; I think we can all agree on that. He might peel off a few NDPers, but mostly he'd hemmorhage votes in Ontario and the Conservatives might actually manage a majority.

Dion would not be a disaster, but he's a bit of the status-quo kind of candidate, and not terribly compelling. He probably wouldn't help the Liberals much in Quebec, and elsewhere things would be more or less unchanged for the Liberals.

Ignatieff, on the face of it, seems like the best choice. However, his strong stance on Afghanistan makes it difficult for many voters to see a difference between him and Harper. Moreover, he (rightly or wrongly) is seen as more American than Canadian by many, and that will push voters away from him. If Ignatieff becomes leader, I see the Liberals gaining slightly in the Liberal-Conservative marginals but losing out in Quebec and the Liberal-NDP marginals and possibly losing enough votes to the NDP and Greens to prevent the Liberals from actual winning any new seats at all.

Kennedy is something of a political novice, admittedly. However, like Ignatieff, that makes him immune to connections to the Martin-Chretien divide and the various corruption scandals that have plagued the Liberals. Moreover, unlike Ignatieff, he isn't scary to progressive voters--he won his seat in Ontario's Provincial Parliament on a 30% swing from the NDP, and, when he resigned from it, the Liberals promptly lost it back to the NDP. However, he also won't alienate voters in the middle of the spectrum any more than other Liberal leaders have.

Kennedy is easily the best choice for the Liberals. Ignatieff would be a mistake.

 

[Evie]

Being a Québecer, I hate saying this, but...

I'd like to see Dion get his chance. Yeah, he was annoyingly arrogant for a while at province relations (but then, that may have been more a reflection of Liberal attitudes on Fed-Prov relations, I doubt anyone else would have been much better), but he did a good job at environment under Martin (Also, he made peace with Infoman. That scores him cookies point right there).

Rae's performance as Ontario PM isn't exactly reassuring, Ignatieff looks like Harper's long-lost brother on a few key (AFG especially), and Kennedy is an unknown quantity to me.

So yeah. Dion it is for me.

 

[emzie]

Have balls. Vote NDP.

 

[primeminister99]

I think Ignatieff would be horrible for the Liberal Party, and Canada, but good for the NDP, because of his neo-conservative foreign policy, and pro-torture views, that would put us even more inline with the US then Harper. He'd probably create space of the centre-left for the NDP, but should he still win, again he'd put Canada more inline with the US government. He's also the least experienced, and would be the most likely to make mistakes, not to mention the fact that he comes across as arrogant and condescending. He has absolutley no common touch. Also, intrestingly enough, though this really shouldn't affect his candidacy, most of the Liberal establishment is backing him for leader. If they end up managing his campaign, like they did Paul Martin's...we'll I'm just saying. He's elquent, but I don't think that's enough.

Rae was a horrible Premier, with a lot of skeltons in his closet. Otoh, he's the only one with experience leading a government, and an official opposition. He's a good speaker, but he's probably only slightly less despised then Mike Harris, so that's not really enough. Otoh he wasn't overly weak anywhere in the country, although as was expected he was slightly weaker in Ontario then the rest of the country delegate wise.

Kennedy had an embaressing showing in Quebec, and his French isn't very good. Otoh, his support was relativley uniform throught the country, and unlike Dion he actually managed to win a province, Alberta (although that was amongst Liberals, so it's not likely he'd nessecarilly win more seats). I don't think he stands much of a chance though.

Dion is probably the best of this lot. He's not a great speaker, in English. But he's not really connected to the Sponsership scandal, even though he was the only one around. Some say he's too controversial because of his hardline federalist views, but that should solidify the Liberal base in Quebec, and he doesn't have as many negatives as Rae or Ignatieff. Even though he and Kennedy are probably the best Candidates, neither stands a chance unless one drops out infavour of the other.

 

[Che Guava]

Rae would be a disaster; I think we can all agree on that. He might peel off a few NDPers, but mostly he'd hemmorhage votes in Ontario and the Conservatives might actually manage a majority.

I don't

I htin Rae, despite his run in Ontario, would be a great leader (and would probably bring more experience to the table than any of the other candidates). I don't think too many NDP'ers would really join ranks with him (I seem to hear more attacks on him from the left than anywhere else)....

 

[drudkh44]

yes
yes
yes
yes

 

[Taliesin]

I'll add one more pinecone to the Kennedy pile. I think he has significant integrity and energy, as well as very little political baggage (but, unlike Ignatieff, he nevertheless has an actual resume in Canadian government). I hope he will be able to bring fresh vision to the party and to Canada.

Rae might not be too bad either, but I get a sense that he's less about vision and more about politicking. I'm not sure that he has anything new to offer the country.

 

[sysyphus]

Rae had a tough time running in Ontario, and even he admits that his government was less than successful, but keep in mind that he 1) came into power when the world was going into recession, 2) cam into power unexpectedly. The NDP win was a big surprise and they were not prepared and didn't have many experienced people. He wasn't horrbile though, hsi government made some good moves, and I'd take Rae back before Mike Harris any day.

But, the baggage and stigma he has is way too heavy, even if alot of it is undeserved, he won't succeed in bringing the Liberals back into government. He should stay on, he could still make valuable contributions as a minister (as Joe Clark, who was a lousy PM but an excellent minister and statesman).

 

[Captain Planet]

While I really don't care because I'll be voting Green again, Dion and Kennedy are at the top of my list.