Massive explosion rocks Damascus.

[dutchfire]

The Israeli can basically launch any amount of missiles at Syria at this stage because nobody inside is in any condition of launching any sort of serious retaliation. Where it'd be consider as an unacceptable act of war if the players are different, this will be tolerated because Israel holds a privileged place in the Western world (thanks to the Holocaust and Hollywood) and Syria is a sworn enemy of USA.

It is not like Israel is the only country meddling in Syria right now.

 

[Borachio]

I dont get why most of these dictators dont do the smart thing and leave... When you see you are loosing just take the money and run, like Idi Amin or Ben Ali.

It's a matter of timing, I think. You run the danger of either quitting too early or leaving it too late.

Same sort of thing with a regime being conciliatory or repressive: you grant concessions and people think you're weak; you act strong and people think you're a tyrant.

 

[Muhammed]

I dont get why most of these dictators dont do the smart thing and leave... When you see you are loosing just take the money and run, like Idi Amin or Ben Ali.

One might think the nuts actually believe they are doing good. Some of the bastards atleast.
Besides theres no place to run for people like Asad or Gaddafi, the planet is just too small. Sure, Gaddifi might have been able to hide in Venezuela a few years, but with so many enemies, they'll get it at some point.

 

[Masada]

Russia has a pretty good record of taking care of its former clients, so he'd be safe if he left Syria.

 

[NedimNapoleon]

One might think the nuts actually believe they are doing good. Some of the bastards atleast.
Besides theres no place to run for people like Asad or Gaddafi, the planet is just too small. Sure, Gaddifi might have been able to hide in Venezuela a few years, but with so many enemies, they'll get it at some point.

Mubarak had oddly enough Montenegro, Gaddafi had Venezuela and a few other African nations he supported, Assad has Russia and Iran.

It's a matter of timing, I think. You run the danger of either quitting too early or leaving it too late.

Same sort of thing with a regime being conciliatory or repressive: you grant concessions and people think you're weak; you act strong and people think you're a tyrant.

Agreed, Samuel Poe stayed to long, got cannibalized...James Mancham (Seychelles) fled early and lost everything.

 

[Muhammed]

Russia has a pretty good record of taking care of its former clients, so he'd be safe if he left Syria.

Point taken. Russia would definitely be an option.

On another note, what/who do you guys think will replace Asad? Dont get me wrong, I want Asad to rot in hell, but I fear that what we risk getting will be far worse. Failed state, the Khalifat, al qaeda..
What's, realistically, the best case scenario?

 

[keli]

Point taken. Russia would definitely be an option.

On another note, what/who do you guys think will replace Asad? Dont get me wrong, I want Asad to rot in hell, but I fear that what we risk getting will be far worse. Failed state, the Khalifat, al qaeda..
What's, realistically, the best case scenario?

Exactly, the best case scenario is if Assad comes out as the victor. There is simply no good future for Syria in the hands of the rebels. Yes, the situation is this bad.

 

[Masada]

I don't think anyone is going to replace Assad in the short-term. The most likely result if the rebels win outright (which I doubt they can: mountainous Alawite enclaves and all that) is chaos, a lot of factional fighting, Western aid pouring in to support groups that are willing to fight the Al Qaida affiliates and a long transition process as various ethnic and religious militias are conciliated, given jobs in the army and eventually pensioned off. This transition process will be much easier if there's enough Western financial aid to get the majority of the militias to disarm. You can look at Libya for the kinds of problems that independent militias can cause, keeping in mind that Libya didn't last this long and had oil to fall back. The resulting Syria is probably going to be rather like Iraq with a quasi-independent Kurdistan and Alawite state and a very dysfunctional core cross-cut with all kinds of rivalries left-over from the Civil War. I predict we will also be seeing lots of Syrian organised crime outfits muscling into European markets over the coming years.

 

[NedimNapoleon]

So you think Syria will do a Somalia?

 

[Masada]

No, not really. The center will be more than strong enough to eventually subdue the periphery. But it'll take a long, long time.

 

[anandus]

Maybe a solution to the problem would be a split of Syria?
A part for the Alawites (northwest coastal region), a part for the Kurds (northeast mountainous), a part for the Druze (southwest) and the core for the Sunni's.

 

[Patroklos]

I highly doubly Syria is sending anything to Lebenon these days. In fact Hezzbolah has been talking loudly about how they are ready to enter Syria to help the regime.

 

[anandus]

I highly doubly Syria is sending anything to Lebenon these days. In fact Hezzbolah has been talking loudly about how they are ready to enter Syria to help the regime.

As far as I know, Hezb'Allah is already fighting in Syria, mostly the area around Homs, I think.

 

[Masada]

Maybe a solution to the problem would be a split of Syria?

It sounds attractive but national borders tend to be sticky. There's also practical issues. For example, the existence of an Alawite state would likely cut off Syria from sea; Iraq and Turkey wouldn't stomach a Kurdish state; there's not enough Druze; and the residual Sunni state would be far too strong relative to the others.

 

[Azale]

Gotta love the Israel hate goin' on here. Nobody even considers the possibility that the Israelis have a clue what they're talking about and the weapons may have actually been headed for Hezbollah.

I mean, I guess I understand that, seeing as how it is widely known that Mossad is the laughingstock of the worldwide intelligence community.

Maybe they are headed for Hezbollah. Maybe Hezbollah has a reason to want arms against Israel, but they aren't "good guys" either.

I just severely dislike the image of Israel as some hammer of justice in the middle east, doing the dirty work the US won't do. It is warped and naive.

 

[amadeus]

Russia has a pretty good record of taking care of its former clients, so he'd be safe if he left Syria.

I was thinking he'd flee to Zimbabwe; Mugabe is already host to Mengistu and was said to have taken advice from him on the mass home demolition program ZANU-PF did a few years ago.

 

[NedimNapoleon]

Maybe a solution to the problem would be a split of Syria?
A part for the Alawites (northwest coastal region), a part for the Kurds (northeast mountainous), a part for the Druze (southwest) and the core for the Sunni's.

Only if they agree not to make enclaves and/or straight borders. I mean people, think of the cartographers and in general the world map, it HAS to be tidy and look organic.

 

[Azash]

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/05/05/world/meast/syria-violence/?hpt=hp_c2

Damascus, Syria (CNN) -- A Syrian official called an attack Sunday on the nation's military research facility a "declaration of war" by Israel.

In an exclusive interview with CNN hours after a series of massive explosions illuminated the predawn sky in Damascus, Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal al Mekdad said the attack represented an alliance between Islamic terrorists and Israel.

"When they attack, this is a declaration of war. This is not something that is (new)," al Mekdad said. "We dealt with this on several occasions, and we retaliated the way we wanted, and the retaliation was always painful to Israel, and they will suffer again."

The Israeli military would not confirm or deny the Syrian claim that Israel had fired rockets that hit a research center in the Damascus suburb of Jamraya.
Syrian official: Israel has declared war

"We do not comment on these reports at all," an Israeli military representative said.

A report on Syrian state-run TV claimed that the Israeli rocket attack on the research center aided rebels, who have been battling government forces in the region.

After an emergency meeting of Syria's Cabinet on Sunday, Syrian Information Minister Omran al-Zoubi said on state television that the attack "opens the door wide open for all possibilities" but did not specify what those possibilities would be.

An Israeli Army official told CNN that two rocket interception batteries have been deployed to northern Israel.

Missile defense system a game changer, Israelis say

And the Israeli Airport Authority said Sunday that it had closed northern airspace over the country to civil aviation flights.

The reported attack comes shortly after U.S. officials first told CNN that the United States believes Israel conducted an airstrike against Syria.

Two U.S. officials told CNN on Friday that Israel apparently launched an airstrike into Syria on Thursday or Friday. Based on initial information, the United States does not believe Israeli warplanes entered Syrian airspace to conduct the strike.

The Israeli military did not comment on the U.S. claim of an airstrike. But Israel has long said it would target any transfer of weapons to Hezbollah or other terrorist groups, as well as at any effort to smuggle Syrian weapons into Lebanon that could threaten Israel.

"We are watching everything when it comes to the movement of these types of weapons. We have the means to do that," a senior Israeli defense official told CNN's Sara Sidner on Sunday. The official is not authorized to speak to the media.

Shaul Mofaz, a lawmaker in Israel's Knesset, told Israeli Army Radio that Israel isn't meddling with Syria's civil war. But Israel must protect itself from Lebanese militants, he said.

"For Israel, it is very important that the front group for Iran, which is in Lebanon, needs to be stopped," Mofaz said.

"Everything that goes into the hands of Hezbollah is not directly related to the rebels. Israel never interfered in the past or today in their actions. Nevertheless, I need to say that Hezbollah is deeply involved up to its neck in what is happening in Syria. Hezbollah helps the Iranians navigate against the rebels."

Hezbollah did not immediately comment after Sunday's claims.

Lebanese President Michel Suleiman condemned the attack Sunday, claiming that Israel had used Lebanese airspace to strike Syria.

The president said he was "not surprised at Israel's onslaught against Syria," Lebanon's National News Agency reported.

Syria: Israel has targeted the defense facility before

Sunday's report is the second claim by Syria this year of a strike against the government defense research facility,

In January, reports surfaced that Israeli warplanes targeted the Jamraya research facility. The Syrian government has said that airstrike killed two workers and injured five others.

A U.S. official told CNN at the time that the Syrian claims were false. The official said Israeli fighter jets targeted a Syrian government convoy carrying surface-to-air missiles bound for Hezbollah. But Syria denied there were such shipments.

On Sunday, al Mekdad said details were unclear about what he described as the latest Israeli strike on Syria.

"Until now, the details are not clear on what happened. Did they fire missiles? ... It is not clear for me, because I don't know how it happened, and of course it is worrying, but Israel will suffer the same," the Syrian deputy foreign minister told CNN. "When their agents in Syria were defeated, they are trying to influence from the outside. This is exactly what happened. This is direct Israeli support for al Qaeda ... and the other forces fighting against Syria, to undermine Syria and to weaken Syria."

Lebanon reports Israeli warplanes overhead

Claims of Israeli foreign presence were not limited to Syria; the Lebanese army said Israel flew warplanes over Lebanon on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

A report from the Lebanese government news agency accused Israeli warplanes of violating Lebanese airspace three times on Sunday morning, executing "circular flights over various Lebanese regions."

Suleiman condemned the violations as "an attempt to shaken Lebanese stability," the state-run National News Agency reported Saturday.

The Israeli military had no comment on the Lebanese claim. But an Israeli defense source said, "We will do whatever is necessary to stop the transfer of weapons from Syria to terrorist organizations. We have done it in the past, and we will do it if necessary the future."

Sectarian violence continues

The latest report of rocket attacks comes as sectarian violence erupted in northwestern Syria. Three consecutive days of killing by mostly Alawite forces have left hundreds of predominantly Sunni residents dead, opposition groups said Saturday.

State media have said their forces were seeking only to clear the area of "terrorists," the term they have routinely used when referring to rebel forces.

But the U.S. State Department said it was "appalled by horrific reports that more than 100 people were killed May 2" in Beyda, a suburb of Baniyas.

Several opposition groups said largely Alawite regime forces used tanks, battleships and missile launchers to target largely Sunni neighborhoods in and around the coastal city of Baniyas.

Government forces killed at least 200 people on Friday and Saturday in Baniyas and its suburbs, the opposition Local Coordination Committees said Saturday.

But reliable information has been difficult to obtain because government forces controlled access to the village, the LCC said.

A graphic video posted by activists who said it was shot in the Ras al-Nabaa neighborhood showed people, including an infant, lying lifeless on the ground. Many bore what appeared to be bullet wounds, and some appeared burned.

CNN has not been able to confirm the video's authenticity, as access to Syrian war zones has been severely limited by the government.

State-run Syrian TV reported that government troops and the National Defense militia, an armed Alawite group loyal to the government, "have cleaned the area from armed terrorists" after "they burned civilians' homes and terrorized the population." The report was supported by interviews with members of the Syrian army.

U.S. President Barack Obama said Friday that he did not foresee a scenario of "American boots on the ground in Syria" that would be good for that country or the region. Obama said other leaders in the region want to see President Bashar al-Assad out of power.

CNN's Frederik Pleitgen reported from Damascus; Sara Sidner reported from Jerusalem. CNN's Mohammed Jamjoom, Amir Ahmed, Holly Yan, Barbara Starr and Saad Abedine contributed to this report

EDIT: Ah, damn, I missed contre's topic.

Moderator Action: merged into the first thread - ori

 

[Tahuti]

It sounds attractive but national borders tend to be sticky. There's also practical issues. For example, the existence of an Alawite state would likely cut off Syria from sea; Iraq and Turkey wouldn't stomach a Kurdish state; there's not enough Druze; and the residual Sunni state would be far too strong relative to the others.

Iraqi Kurdistan is quite close to de-facto independence, in a fashion somewhat comparable to Macau or Hong Kong (excluding the circumstances in which those happened, of course). It is not quite unthinkable such may happen to Syria Kurdistan or the Syrian Alawites, though the latter may just as likely be marginalised.

 

[Azash]

http://edition.cnn.com/2013/05/05/world/meast/syria-violence/?hpt=hp_c2

Damascus, Syria (CNN) -- A Syrian official called an attack Sunday on the nation's military research facility a "declaration of war" by Israel.

In an exclusive interview with CNN hours after a series of massive explosions illuminated the predawn sky in Damascus, Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal al Mekdad said the attack represented an alliance between Islamic terrorists and Israel.

"When they attack, this is a declaration of war. This is not something that is (new)," al Mekdad said. "We dealt with this on several occasions, and we retaliated the way we wanted, and the retaliation was always painful to Israel, and they will suffer again."

The Israeli military would not confirm or deny the Syrian claim that Israel had fired rockets that hit a research center in the Damascus suburb of Jamraya.
Syrian official: Israel has declared war

"We do not comment on these reports at all," an Israeli military representative said.

A report on Syrian state-run TV claimed that the Israeli rocket attack on the research center aided rebels, who have been battling government forces in the region.

After an emergency meeting of Syria's Cabinet on Sunday, Syrian Information Minister Omran al-Zoubi said on state television that the attack "opens the door wide open for all possibilities" but did not specify what those possibilities would be.

An Israeli Army official told CNN that two rocket interception batteries have been deployed to northern Israel.

Missile defense system a game changer, Israelis say

And the Israeli Airport Authority said Sunday that it had closed northern airspace over the country to civil aviation flights.

The reported attack comes shortly after U.S. officials first told CNN that the United States believes Israel conducted an airstrike against Syria.

Two U.S. officials told CNN on Friday that Israel apparently launched an airstrike into Syria on Thursday or Friday. Based on initial information, the United States does not believe Israeli warplanes entered Syrian airspace to conduct the strike.

The Israeli military did not comment on the U.S. claim of an airstrike. But Israel has long said it would target any transfer of weapons to Hezbollah or other terrorist groups, as well as at any effort to smuggle Syrian weapons into Lebanon that could threaten Israel.

"We are watching everything when it comes to the movement of these types of weapons. We have the means to do that," a senior Israeli defense official told CNN's Sara Sidner on Sunday. The official is not authorized to speak to the media.

Shaul Mofaz, a lawmaker in Israel's Knesset, told Israeli Army Radio that Israel isn't meddling with Syria's civil war. But Israel must protect itself from Lebanese militants, he said.

"For Israel, it is very important that the front group for Iran, which is in Lebanon, needs to be stopped," Mofaz said.

"Everything that goes into the hands of Hezbollah is not directly related to the rebels. Israel never interfered in the past or today in their actions. Nevertheless, I need to say that Hezbollah is deeply involved up to its neck in what is happening in Syria. Hezbollah helps the Iranians navigate against the rebels."

Hezbollah did not immediately comment after Sunday's claims.

Lebanese President Michel Suleiman condemned the attack Sunday, claiming that Israel had used Lebanese airspace to strike Syria.

The president said he was "not surprised at Israel's onslaught against Syria," Lebanon's National News Agency reported.

Syria: Israel has targeted the defense facility before

Sunday's report is the second claim by Syria this year of a strike against the government defense research facility,

In January, reports surfaced that Israeli warplanes targeted the Jamraya research facility. The Syrian government has said that airstrike killed two workers and injured five others.

A U.S. official told CNN at the time that the Syrian claims were false. The official said Israeli fighter jets targeted a Syrian government convoy carrying surface-to-air missiles bound for Hezbollah. But Syria denied there were such shipments.

On Sunday, al Mekdad said details were unclear about what he described as the latest Israeli strike on Syria.

"Until now, the details are not clear on what happened. Did they fire missiles? ... It is not clear for me, because I don't know how it happened, and of course it is worrying, but Israel will suffer the same," the Syrian deputy foreign minister told CNN. "When their agents in Syria were defeated, they are trying to influence from the outside. This is exactly what happened. This is direct Israeli support for al Qaeda ... and the other forces fighting against Syria, to undermine Syria and to weaken Syria."

Lebanon reports Israeli warplanes overhead

Claims of Israeli foreign presence were not limited to Syria; the Lebanese army said Israel flew warplanes over Lebanon on Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

A report from the Lebanese government news agency accused Israeli warplanes of violating Lebanese airspace three times on Sunday morning, executing "circular flights over various Lebanese regions."

Suleiman condemned the violations as "an attempt to shaken Lebanese stability," the state-run National News Agency reported Saturday.

The Israeli military had no comment on the Lebanese claim. But an Israeli defense source said, "We will do whatever is necessary to stop the transfer of weapons from Syria to terrorist organizations. We have done it in the past, and we will do it if necessary the future."

Sectarian violence continues

The latest report of rocket attacks comes as sectarian violence erupted in northwestern Syria. Three consecutive days of killing by mostly Alawite forces have left hundreds of predominantly Sunni residents dead, opposition groups said Saturday.

State media have said their forces were seeking only to clear the area of "terrorists," the term they have routinely used when referring to rebel forces.

But the U.S. State Department said it was "appalled by horrific reports that more than 100 people were killed May 2" in Beyda, a suburb of Baniyas.

Several opposition groups said largely Alawite regime forces used tanks, battleships and missile launchers to target largely Sunni neighborhoods in and around the coastal city of Baniyas.

Government forces killed at least 200 people on Friday and Saturday in Baniyas and its suburbs, the opposition Local Coordination Committees said Saturday.

But reliable information has been difficult to obtain because government forces controlled access to the village, the LCC said.

A graphic video posted by activists who said it was shot in the Ras al-Nabaa neighborhood showed people, including an infant, lying lifeless on the ground. Many bore what appeared to be bullet wounds, and some appeared burned.

CNN has not been able to confirm the video's authenticity, as access to Syrian war zones has been severely limited by the government.

State-run Syrian TV reported that government troops and the National Defense militia, an armed Alawite group loyal to the government, "have cleaned the area from armed terrorists" after "they burned civilians' homes and terrorized the population." The report was supported by interviews with members of the Syrian army.

U.S. President Barack Obama said Friday that he did not foresee a scenario of "American boots on the ground in Syria" that would be good for that country or the region. Obama said other leaders in the region want to see President Bashar al-Assad out of power.

CNN's Frederik Pleitgen reported from Damascus; Sara Sidner reported from Jerusalem. CNN's Mohammed Jamjoom, Amir Ahmed, Holly Yan, Barbara Starr and Saad Abedine contributed to this report

I'm doubtful of this turning into a larger conflict. Israel is stronger, better backed, and Syria is already too engaged in internal conflict.