Meanwhile in Libya...

[onedreamer]

Well done, west, well done. Put off decisions until there's nothing left to decide.

No surprise really. This has always been the prerogative since the League of Nations. I think they have yet to succeed in stopping if not preventing a war after a century and several wars in the records.

 

[innonimatu]

I wondered about that with Ghadafi myself. He's making big inroads against the rebellion but what's to stop the rebels numerically retaking the towns with inadequate garrisons? There's only so many mercenaries he can buy.

I don't think that this rebellion in Libya originally ever had a goal except "we want to get rid of Qaddafi". On the popular level there were genuine demonstrations against the government inspired by those of neighboring countries. But the leadership as it developed, and the quick "gains" of the rebellion, was driven by the opportunism of numerous power brokers who were part of the government structure and defected, anticipating the inevitability of a regime change and wanting to be on the winning side from early on. Except... Qaddafi wanted, and managed, to resist in power, kept control of the capital, a critical point in any revolution, and now has troops fighting back and regaining territory, with the rebels are turning out to be the losing side!

So they're starting to defect back to the government field. Qaddafi may ramble in speeches, but he hadn't maintained himself in power for so long without skill at power-brokering. What I expect: the people, the cannon fodder of every revolution, will be abandoned by its leaders and fall into confusion. Some will die fighting, most will be disillusioned with the whole thing and submit to the government. Some leaders will join the government side to be "magnanimously pardoned" by the dictator in a show of newly-found national unity, the rest will flee the cojntry. None will go down fighting, not unless their foreign sponsors (from the time when it looked like they could win) betray them completely and refuse them asylum. Which wouldn't surprise me. The the regime would surely get them and kill them. The only sure losers, judging from the way this is going, will be the common people. The libyans are screwed. But they were since the day Qaddafi decided to resist and managed to keep control of Tripoli. Foreign support was never more than promises and waiting to see which side would emerge victorious. Except for Sarkozy's diplomatic slip, mended the next day when the french foreign minister denied that France had shifted recognition of the libyan government to the rebel side.

 

[aukrest]

An utter failure on the western world we now have any angry Gaddafi ready to commit genocide on his own people to rule Libya for the end of his days.

 

[Incodcito]

Well, the whole Libyan fiasco is one of the best examples of the failure of multilateralism. Next time, a certain nation needs to ignore the multilateralists and act.

 

[innonimatu]

Well, the whole Libyan fiasco is one of the best examples of the failure of multilateralism. Next time, a certain nation needs to ignore the multilateralists and act.

When will you all get into your heads that "lack of consensus" was always just as excuse not to act? There was no intention to act, from any government! And it makes sense. That's how international relations work. The rebels had nothing going for them: no ideological affinity with outside governments to call on (because they never really defined what their future alignment would be), no agreements in place which others would like to protect, no apparent capability to take over the country and keep it "stable" to offer business opportunities to foreign interests. No other government had any real interest in helping them. Thus only public pressure (because of all this talk about how "democracy is great") could have forced some governments to act. All that propaganda sometimes can become inconvenient and turn against its originators! But it's rare. I can only think of one recent case, East Timor, and that took also a lot of skillful diplomacy and in the end a gamble by the portuguese government that the US Clinton administration wouldn't want the embarrassment of seeing a NATO country leave over their backing to Indonesia. Only that and the continued embarrassment caused by news coverage of events there right after Serbia had been bombed over Kosovo finally moved Clinton to push the "international community" to act.

Interests, not all necessarily selfish, but always interests, drive international relations. The rebels never managed to become more interesting to other governments than Qaddafi. And that's a really big failure. I'll be very surprised if these talks in the Security Council result in any real action.

 

[Incodcito]

When will you all get into your heads that "lack of consensus" was always just as excuse not to act? There was no intention to act, from any government! And it makes sense. That's how international relations work. The rebels had nothing going for them: no ideological affinity with outside governments to call on (because they never really defined what their future alignment would be), no agreements in place which others would like to protect, no apparent capability to take over the country and keep it "stable" to offer business opportunities to foreign interests. No other government had any real interest in helping them. Thus only public pressure (because of all this talk about how "democracy is great") could have forced some governments to act. All that propaganda sometimes can become inconvenient and turn against its originators! But it's rare. I can only think of one recent case, East Timor, and that took also a lot of skillful diplomacy and in the end a gamble by the portuguese government that the US Clinton administration wouldn't want the embarrassment of seeing a NATO country leave over their backing to Indonesia. Only that and the continued embarrassment caused by news coverage of events there right after Serbia had been bombed over Kosovo finally moved Clinton to push the "international community" to act.

Interests, not all necessarily selfish, but always interests, drive international relations. The rebels never managed to become more interesting to other governments than Qaddafi. And that's a really big failure. I'll be very surprised if these talks in the Security Council result in any real action.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/18/world/africa/18nations.html?_r=1&hp

UNITED NATIONS — The United Nations Security Council approved a measure on Thursday authorizing “all necessary measures” to protect Libyan civilians from harm at the hands of forces loyal to Colonel Muammar el-Qaddafi.

The measure allows not only a no-fly zone but effectively any measures short of a ground invasion to halt attacks that might result in civilian fatalities. It comes as Colonel Qaddafi warned residents of Benghazi, Libya, the rebel capital, that an attack was imminent and promised lenient treatment for those who offered no resistance.

“We are coming tonight,” Colonel Qaddafi said. “You will come out from inside. Prepare yourselves from tonight. We will find you in your closets.”

Speaking on a call-in radio show, he promised amnesty for those “who throw their weapons away” but “no mercy or compassion” for those who fight. Explosions were heard in Benghazi early Friday, unnerving residents there, Agence-France Presse reported.

The United States, originally leery of any military involvement in Libya, became a strong proponent of the resolution, particularly after the Arab League approved a no-fly zone, something that Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton called a “game changer”

With the recent advances made by pro-Qaddafi forces in the east, there was a growing consensus in the Obama administration that imposing a no-fly zone by itself would no longer make much of a difference and that there was a need for more aggressive airstrikes that would make targets of Colonel Qaddafi’s tanks and heavy artillery — an option sometimes referred to as a no-drive zone. The United States or its allies might also send military personnel to advise and train the rebels, an official said.

In the most strident verbal attack on Colonel Qaddafi to date by an American official, Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said Thursday that the Western powers had little choice but to provide critical military backing for the rebels. “We want to support the opposition who are standing against the dictator,” she told an applauding audience in Tunisia on Thursday. “This is a man who has no conscience and will threaten anyone in his way.”

She added that Colonel Qaddafi would do “terrible things” to Libya and its neighbors. “It’s just in his nature. There are some creatures that are like that.”

The Qaddafi government responded to the potential United Nations action with threats.

“Any foreign military act against Libya will expose all air and maritime traffic in the Mediterranean Sea to danger and civilian and military facilities will become targets of Libya’s counter-attack,” it said in a statement carried on Libyan television and the official news agency, JANA, Reuters reported. “The Mediterranean basin will face danger not just in the short-term, but also in the long-term.”

There were reports on Thursday that warplanes were already bombarding the outskirts of Benghazi for a second day, opening shots, perhaps, in the battle. And after days of batterings at the hands of Qaddafi loyalists, the opposition forces welcomed the promise of Western assistance.

Rebel leaders doubted that the loyalist forces could mount an assault on Benghazi tonight, in that they were still contesting Ajdabiya, 100 miles to the south, on Thursday morning. But witnesses said there were skirmishes on the road to Benghazi in the afternoon, about 30 miles from Ajdabiya.

Mohamed, a rebel spokesman in the embattled, rebel held city of Misurata — the last major rebel foothold in the west — welcomed the new American tone. “We are very heartened yesterday by the moves in the United Nations Security Council and the urgency of the American stand,” he said, speaking over a satellite phone.

Forces loyal to Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi massed outside Misurata on Thursday, apparently in preparation for an attack. Musa Ibrahim, a spokesman for the Qaddafi government, confirmed that its forces were preparing to take the city in the same way they did Zawiya, another western town that had been held by the rebels.

“It starts in the beginning by surrounding the city,” he said, “then moving slowly to avoid casualties.” Rebels in Zawiyah described heavy casualties — at least dozens — during the Qaddafi forces’ siege of that city. But Mr. Ibrahim said that in Misuratah the army was not moving, along with “local volunteers,” to rid the city of any rebel snipers who might be hiding in buildings.

“It should be finished up tomorrow if not today,” Mr. Ibrahim added.

I am cautiously optimistic that my previous post was wrong.

 

[onedreamer]

I don't know Incodcito, after such a threat:

“Any foreign military act against Libya will expose all air and maritime traffic in the Mediterranean Sea to danger and civilian and military facilities will become targets of Libya’s counter-attack,” it said in a statement carried on Libyan television and the official news agency, JANA, Reuters reported. “The Mediterranean basin will face danger not just in the short-term, but also in the long-term.”

they approved a mere no fly zone. The evil Saddam Hussein didn't go that far.
Oh wait... of course, China and Russia aren't in the Mediterranean basin, I forgot!

 

[Incodcito]

I don't know Incodcito, after such a threat:



they approved a mere no fly zone. The evil Saddam Hussein didn't go that far.
Oh wait... of course, China and Russia aren't in the Mediterranean basin, I forgot!

The language in the resolution is more expansive then a mere no-fly zone. Heres hoping that the Allied Air Forces concentrate on pounding the Gov't ground forces.

 

[r16]

errm , Kaddafi's English speaking guys were so compliable , Algeria has earned another fortnight and that's practically all . The cavalry always arrives at the nick of the time , to the end of movie . As usual Turkish reactions were so amusing. This actually smart guy ı had once talked about , was on TV last night , complainining that it took so long to move against a sandlot of 6 and a half million . He shouldn't worry ; when the West declares a no-fly zone in Turkey , they will be 10 times faster and Americans are advised this guy will provide the emotional tearful heart rending plea in the UN . ( Now back in the day when the evil commies fell there were grand ideas about a Turkish world stretching from the Adriatic to the Great Wall of China , and Americans actually opened fire on Turkish military units . The strategists of Turkey once again lulled are now anxiously waiting to gain actual influence in the Middle East before the rollback begins . Which will begin earnestly as soon as the neo-boys are back in town legally . Don't worry master , you will be the voice of the oppressed . If you fail to cry , go the Emel Sayın way and use vaseline on the eyes . And maybe the world will take mercy on the Turkey , the rump of Turkey that will remain . ) These are the guys who allowed an American led "sect" to "take over" the country thinking they could trick Uncle Sam and of course US is still claiming they know nothing of the sort and they have no control on the guys . And expecting us to believe 'em when CIA was offering a letter of support to each school they opened internationally . Only because the wikileaks say that US asked the journalists of this country who were these guys ? The kind of the guys who are now bringing democracy to Libya right now , maybe ? Who knows ??

 

[Leonel]

errm , Kaddafi's English speaking guys were so compliable , Algeria has earned another fortnight and that's practically all . The cavalry always arrives at the nick of the time , to the end of movie . As usual Turkish reactions were so amusing. This actually smart guy ı had once talked about , was on TV last night , complainining that it took so long to move against a sandlot of 6 and a half million . He shouldn't worry ; when the West declares a no-fly zone in Turkey , they will be 10 times faster and Americans are advised this guy will provide the emotional tearful heart rending plea in the UN . ( Now back in the day when the evil commies fell there were grand ideas about a Turkish world stretching from the Adriatic to the Great Wall of China , and Americans actually opened fire on Turkish military units . The strategists of Turkey once again lulled are now anxiously waiting to gain actual influence in the Middle East before the rollback begins . Which will begin earnestly as soon as the neo-boys are back in town legally . Don't worry master , you will be the voice of the oppressed . If you fail to cry , go the Emel Sayın way and use vaseline on the eyes . And maybe the world will take mercy on the Turkey , the rump of Turkey that will remain . ) These are the guys who allowed an American led "sect" to "take over" the country thinking they could trick Uncle Sam and of course US is still claiming they know nothing of the sort and they have no control on the guys . And expecting us to believe 'em when CIA was offering a letter of support to each school they opened internationally . Only because the wikileaks say that US asked the journalists of this country who were these guys ? The kind of the guys who are now bringing democracy to Libya right now , maybe ? Who knows ??

Wait are you the guy who also wrote Time Cube?

 

[GamezRule]

Can we get an updated map of who holds what pertaining to now?

 

[Godwynn]

Can we get an updated map of who holds what pertaining to now?

Wikipedia

 

[Steph]

I am french-ball agnostic until they actually do something to stem the tide.

And now? Are you a believer?

 

[Incodcito]

And now? Are you a believer?

Yep. I now believe in the grandeur of french balls.

 

[r16]

Wait are you the guy who also wrote Time Cube?

sorry , ı don't know what a time cube is . If you mean Gene Ray's idea that ı looked up in Wikipedia , no ı am not Gene Ray . Though ı can tie up easily in any nuttiness competition . So if you are implying the so called war in Libya is for human rights and democracy , obviously ı won't be confirming . Let me check if there is a war thread where ı can further my nuttiness .

edit : allright , here it goes .


somewhat delayed in a fast moving world but Sarkozy finally has his war , Uncle Sam follows the fait accompli while Amr Musa shows the typical Eastern cunning - a somewhat pejorative term in Turkish - with claiming he didn't ask for bombing . As for bloodthirsty offensive on Bingazi , ı will not offer any concrete ideas on the land action , conducted by 300-400 drugged and drunken lot against a city of million plus and probably the only witnessing "journalist" was shot dead , and the Kaddafi's lot was nowhere to be seen , disappearing into the city crowds . Hey , why don't people smell them ? Nor much opinion can be offered on the crowds fleeing the city in terror with a Churchillian V . But ı can sure comment on the Tricolor Flogger that was overhead right after bombs were dropped , seemed so devoid of external weaponry even with magnified view , jinking carefully . How horrible to die just hours before delivery . And of course the journalistic self control . They don't know what got it . Sure , if it is a jet of Kaddafi how come it gets splashed right over the undefended city ? And if it is a rebel , it is still bad for the undefended unarmed city ! A case of refreshments for the eagle-eyed talians , worth up to 50 Euros , of their own choice . For the action , for a US not actively involved , bragging is surely justified for nobody comes up to challenge them . You know , every enemy of US of A pilot knows as soon as he lifts up , Combat Tree - the code for Russian made IFF sets cooperating with Western radars even when closed down and he will be punished by own air defences , it is practically in every aviation book - will start singing . Considering that chivalry remains next to dress blues in aerial combat no reason to complain , one might guess .

political considerations are aplenty . It is time one returns the hollowest Nobel prize ever . One can also fathom the long deliberations have carefully resulted in a war on the anniversary of an another ; one can not expect allowance for having a legacy . Based on a promise of change . Not that we ever believed in you .

france is happy to exchange Tunisia for a greater Libyan pie , RAF's long reach will scare people one of these days , they are to stay in the area after the war too and of course Turkey has still best stories . ı have missed all those commentators ; one of them jumped straight in , describing the events in Libya with a word ı would use only in describing the thing done discreetly against stray dogs when no activists are around . Come morning and the news are full of the code name for the operation and he now sez it is an ardous journey for humanity ! The other guy who will ask the UN for a no-fly zone in Turkey - when its time comes - already jokes about it and we hear we are not pals with Iran anymore . One might have come across weird notions that we are not happy with a nuclear deterrent that is to deter only us and hear this , we are inspecting Iranian cargo flights to Syria on tips that they carry nukes ! One of the guys even blurted out it is the centenary of Italians kicking us out of Libya . Oh holy beloved Washington , you surprise us with your friends as always . ( Smiley of any type one sees fit )

take the guy the whole ultraright thinks is under American pay ( as he once attempted to take over their party from the old hacks ) . On a TV debate he said that the state run TV channel of a language other than Turkish started its life with a song , an eulogy of maybe 100 years old , and the lyrics apparently talk of sticking nails to the eyes of Turkish soldiers . It is rare that ı see really red faces on TV but that night was an exception . Anger from the other friends of Uncle Sam in the studio is understandable ; those guys were dictionary pushing just months ago , probably they doubted anybody would ever use 'em . We surely didn't hear such stuff in the days and we now learn Turkish citizens in the East still call the state as Rum , [Byzantion for the historically inclined] . What is it , our water boiling allready ?

 

[Godwynn]

The rebels are moving westward. I, myself, am quite surprised at the speed they are moving now that they have secured Ajdabiya. They have already re-taken Brega and heading toward Ras Lanuf.

 

[CELTICEMPIRE]

The rebels are moving westward. I, myself, am quite surprised at the speed they are moving now that they have secured Ajdabiya. They have already re-taken Brega and heading toward Ras Lanuf.

yay, go rebels!!!!!

 

[Abaddon]

The rebels are moving westward. I, myself, am quite surprised at the speed they are moving now that they have secured Ajdabiya. They have already re-taken Brega and heading toward Ras Lanuf.

Eugh, you bumped the wrong thread :/

 

[onedreamer]

seems the rebels are loosing positions again >.>
And this is the correct thread Abaddon.

 

[warpus]

seems the rebels are loosing positions again >.>
And this is the correct thread Abaddon.

Where'd you read that? According to my sources they have been stopped in their advance, but not pushed back.