Let me put it differently: I almost always play with a religion of my own, but we might have to accept not getting one on this map.
If we catch a faith-oriented pantheon (Goddess of Festivals, I assume) but miss founding, the early Shrine should still be enough to let us buy faith buildings early. Those early faith buildings snow-ball, so that is enough for 2-3 more GP in the game as compared to not having a pantheon. On the other hand, by going Liberty, presumably the only GP we will have eligible for faith purchase is GS.I think the map is considered Standard sized for calculating total # of religions and per-city penalties, so with 14 AIs the chances to get a religion are very low.
I too would like some help estimating the timing for this! At a minimum, I think we need four Ballista’s and three Legions. I don’t expect that we can expect any of them to have any promotions of particular note when the siege starts.What turns will a CB/Ballista/Legion attack come on Venice?