Middle East thread

[Ajidica]

Not so much as Israel did this as giving the go-ahead and possibly providing intelligence

Any evidence? Either for this specific allegation or that Israel and ISIS had enough of a working relationship that ISIS chooses their targets based on Israeli input?

 

[Bonyduck Campersang]

Any evidence? Either for this specific allegation or that Israel and ISIS had enough of a working relationship that ISIS chooses their targets based on Israeli input?

I'm not saying Israel did it, I'm saying that if they were involved (as the tweet claimed) that would be the extent of their involvement.

 

[Bonyduck Campersang]

Iran has decided to go the USraeli route of randomly bombing stuff first and coming up with a story second

 

[r16]

attacked ISIL/Uygur thing in Syria , something similar in Pakistan and possibly in Northern Iraq . A clear warning or whatever in case Bidon's election jihad is to involve them .

 

[Bonyduck Campersang]

Pakistan-Iran attacks live: At least 9 killed near Iran’s southeast border

• Pakistan’s air force has launched retaliatory air strikes on Iran, allegedly targeting fighters’ positions.
• Iranian state media says the attack killed at least nine people.

 

[EgonSpengler]

I honestly didn't know there was any tension between Iran and Pakistan, until yesterday.

 

[Bonyduck Campersang]

I honestly didn't know there was any tension between Iran and Pakistan, until yesterday.

In a way, it's a win-win situation for both.

Baloch separatists have been a thorn in Pakistan's side for many years. Just a few months ago, the army's crackdown on Baloch activists was met with unprecedent civil backlash, mainly due to the army's heavy-handed meddling in politics. And the army's reputation is already at an all-time low.

So when Iran bombs Baloch militants, it can posture as doing something without having to deal with the pro-US bloc in the Arab world. And the Pakistan Army is also chuffed because Iran bombs their Baloch militants for them and they can also retaliate to curry favour with the populace ("you hate us but we're the ones keeping you safe!").

That is, if it was a Baloch group that was attacked by Iran. Iran claims it was an ISIS camp. Since Afghanistan fell to the Taliban, all three countries have seen an increase in ISIS activity. But Pakistan claims children were killed in the attack. We're still unclear about what is happening, but I stick to my theory unless future developments suggest otherwise.

 

[EgonSpengler]

In a way, it's a win-win situation for both.

Baloch separatists have been a thorn in Pakistan's side for many years. Just a few months ago, the army's crackdown on Baloch activists was met with unprecedent civil backlash, mainly due to the army's heavy-handed meddling in politics. And the army's reputation is already at an all-time low.

So when Iran bombs Baloch militants, it can posture as doing something without having to deal with the pro-US bloc in the Arab world. And the Pakistan Army is also chuffed because Iran bombs their Baloch militants for them and they can also retaliate to curry favour with the populace ("you hate us but we're the ones keeping you safe!").

That is, if it was a Baloch group that was attacked by Iran. Iran claims it was an ISIS camp. Since Afghanistan fell to the Taliban, all three countries have seen an increase in ISIS activity. But Pakistan claims children were killed in the attack. We're still unclear about what is happening, but I stick to my theory unless future developments suggest otherwise.

Geopolitical Strangers on a Train. (A Hitchcock movie in which two men meet on a train and agree to each kill someone that the other guy wants dead.)

 

[Samson]

I honestly didn't know there was any tension between Iran and Pakistan, until yesterday.

Al Jazzera has a timeline article. Here is their review of the recent history of the tension:

Spoiler Pakistan-Iran border tensions: A timeline :

December 2023
The Jaish al-Adl (Army of Justice), which is blacklisted by Iran as a “terror” group, claimed responsibility for a police station attack in the Iranian town of Rask in the southeastern border province of Sistan-Baluchestan, which killed 11 Iranian security personnel. The attack was condemned by Pakistan.

June 2023
Pakistani military’s media wing, the Inter-Services Public Relations (ISPR), released a statement saying armed “terrorists” killed two Pakistani soldiers at a checkpoint in the Singwan area of the Kech district. Pakistan contacted Iranian authorities to thwart attempts by fighters to escape into Iran.

April 2023
The ISPR announced that attackers from Iran killed four of its border patrol soldiers in the Jalgai sector of Kech district.

January 2023
Shehbaz Sharif, who was Pakistan’s prime minister at the time, condemned the killing of four security officials along the border with Iran in Balochistan. After the attack in the Chukab sector of Panjgur district, Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) urged Iran to investigate the matter and hold the perpetrators accountable. The Iranian embassy in Islamabad condemned this attack.

September 2021
Pakistan claimed that a soldier had been killed in cross-border firing from Iran, blaming it on “terrorists” in Iran. The attack took place following the reopening of the border between the two countries for bilateral trade on September 20, following a four-month closure over security concerns.

They also had this explainer. One of the points they raise seems to indicate they are not on the brink of war:

The Iranian attack came hours after Iran and Pakistan held a joint naval exercise, and the two countries’ foreign ministers spoke in Davos on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum. Both summoned their respective envoys, but there has been no talk of cutting diplomatic relations.

Also I did not hear about this, it sounds a bit mad:

The leader of Jundallah [the forerunner of Jaish al-Adl, the target of these strikes], Abdolmalek Rigi, was captured in a dramatic operation by the Iranian army, with fighter jets forcing the landing of a passenger aircraft taking him from the United Arab Emirates to Kyrgyzstan in 2010. He was executed in Tehran the same year.

They also have this, which waxes lyrical on the capacities of Iranian missiles to hit anywhere in the middle east with precision

Spoiler Longer bit about how long range and accurate the missiles are :

Yet they also showcase the capabilities and precision of the largest and most varied missile arsenal of the Middle East.

In Iraq, Iran claims to have hit a Mossad-linked target in what appeared to be a precision strike. A wealthy Kurdish businessman Peshraw Dizayee was confirmed killed.

Images from the area show that only the villa of the Dizayee was destroyed and it was located in the vicinity of the US consulate and the international airport in the regional capital, Erbil, where US and other foreign forces are stationed.

For ISIL (ISIS)-linked targets in Syria’s Idlib, the IRGC made a point of saying that it used its brand new Kheibar Shekan ballistic missile with a stated range of 1,450km (900 miles).

Even though the missiles could have been launched from a province closer to Syria, their stated launch site was in Khuzestan, which is several hundred kilometres farther.

This means that the missiles travelled close to 1,300km (807 miles) to hit precise targets. That puts the entirety of Israel and occupied Palestinian territories within reach of Iranian missiles, sending a message that Tehran’s longstanding threat to “raze Tel Aviv and Haifa to the ground” if necessary can be exacted.

The strikes on Pakistan were smaller and covered a relatively short distance by comparison, but they were only part of a larger display of force aimed at increasing Iran’s deterrence without pushing the country into an all-out war.

Spoiler Maps, 'cos you know, maps :

 

[Bonyduck Campersang]

Pakistan decides to restore diplomatic ties with Iran after brief standoff - Pakistan Observer

ISLAMABAD – Pakistani government has decided to restore full diplomatic ties with Iran and appointing ambassadors back, ending the brief…

pakobserver.net

So they've decided to kiss and make up. That was fast. Hopefully it stays like this

 

[r16]

let us bring Democracy to Iran , people will meet us with open arms and flowers ! ı think from a Right-Wing tumblr account .

Spoiler :

also CIA stuff from wikipedia


strangely the Farsi do not come out as a nice one third here

 

[Crezth]

Pakistan decides to restore diplomatic ties with Iran after brief standoff - Pakistan Observer

ISLAMABAD – Pakistani government has decided to restore full diplomatic ties with Iran and appointing ambassadors back, ending the brief…

pakobserver.net

So they've decided to kiss and make up. That was fast. Hopefully it stays like this

As has been mentioned there wasn’t really an issue here, at least not by ways of comparison to, you know, the myriad much bigger issues affecting both.

 

[EnglishEdward]

They also have this, which waxes lyrical on the capacities of Iranian missiles to hit anywhere in the middle east with precision

I wonder if Iran developed this targeting capability itself,
or obtained it from Russia as a trade for all those drones.

 

[r16]

it trickles down from North Korean stuff . Their requirements were tougher ; considering they might have to fight America , South Korea or Japan , basically gigantic on their own in their own backyard or even China or something .

 

[Broken_Erika]

Saudi Arabia to get first alcohol shop in more than 70 years​

Saudi Arabia has said it will open a shop in Riyadh selling alcohol to a select band of non-Muslim expats, the first to open in more than 70 years.

The clientele will be limited to diplomatic staff, who have for years imported booze in sealed official packages known as diplomatic pouches.

Saudi officials said the shop would counter "the illicit trade of alcohol".

Prohibition has been law since 1952, after one of King Abdulaziz's sons drunkenly shot dead a British diplomat.

The new store will be located in Riyadh's Diplomatic Quarter west of the city centre, according to a document seen by the AFP and Reuters news agencies.

A source familiar with the plans told Reuters the shop was expected to open within weeks. There will be limitations, however:

• Thirsty envoys would need to register beforehand and receive clearance by the government
• No one under 21 will be allowed in the store and "proper attire is required" at all times inside
• Drinkers will not be able to send a proxy, such as a driver
• Monthly limitations would be enforced, the statement said.

However - according to the document seen by AFP - these will not be particularly stringent.

Patrons will be limited to 240 "points" of alcohol per month. One litre of spirits will be worth six points, one litre of wine three points and one litre of beer one point.

There are also no suggestions that the clientele will be widened to "ordinary" foreigners in the kingdom without diplomatic privileges, who officially have no access to alcohol.

While alcohol will become part of Riyadh life, drinkers would be wise to be mindful of where they drink and how they behave afterwards.

Under current Saudi law, penalties for consumption or possession of alcohol can include fines, jail time, public flogging and deportation for unauthorised foreigners.

The document also said authorities are planning a "new regulatory framework" that would also allow "specific quantities" of alcohol to be brought in by diplomats to "put an end to... an uncontrolled exchange of such goods", it added.

For years diplomatic staff have had to use their "pouches", which cannot be tampered with by authorities in their host country, to bring in limited amounts of alcohol.

The moves are the latest in a series of initiatives known as "Vision 2030" to liberalise Saudi society under the crown prince and de facto ruler of the country, Mohammed bin Salman.

Other Gulf states operate similar alcohol regimes.

However, the UAE and Qatar also allow the sale of alcohol to non-Muslims over 21 in hotels, clubs and bars.

There is no suggestion from the Saudi document that the government there is considering doing the same.

While alcohol is forbidden under Islam, Saudi Arabia had until 1952 held a conciliatory attitude to its presence inside the kingdom.

That changed after Mishari bin Abdulaziz Al-Saud, a prince, shot dead Cyril Ousman, the British vice-consul in Jeddah, in 1951 for refusing to pour him another drink at a function.

A year later, King Abdulaziz imposed a total ban on alcohol. Mishari was convicted of murder.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-68085190

 

[Lexicus]

after one of King Abdulaziz's sons drunkenly shot dead a British diplomat.

LMAO

 

[r16]

that's the power of Moderate Islam . For Qataris or Saudis to be it , some other countries must be dragged down or something that will outrage the "Muslims" therein . By the phrase down .

 

[Bonyduck Campersang]

US and Iraq agree to start talks to end presence of US-led coalition

Iraq’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs in a statement on Thursday said Baghdad aims to “formulate a specific and clear timetable that specifies the duration of the presence of international coalition advisors in Iraq” and to “initiate the gradual and deliberate reduction of its advisors on Iraqi soil”, eventually leading to the end of the coalition mission.

It added that Iraq is committed to ensuring the “safety of the international coalition’s advisors during the negotiation period in all parts of the country” and to “maintaining stability and preventing escalation”.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin said in a statement that the discussions will take place as part of a higher military commission that was agreed upon in August 2023 – before the outbreak of Israel’s war on Gaza on October 7 rocked the region – and will discuss the “transition to an enduring bilateral security partnership between Iraq and the United States”.

 

[Bonyduck Campersang]

Iran bars Hassan Rouhani from seeking re-election to key body

The regime has often used disqualification on spurious technical grounds as a means of preventing regime opponents from standing for elections. Other past presidents Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad have also found themselves barred but it is a sign of the regime’s audacity that it has chosen to exclude someone so experienced and prominent as Rouhani.

Rouhani, who was president for two terms from 2013 to 2021, has three days to appeal against the decision, as do the other disqualified candidates. He said he disagreed with the decision, vowed that nothing would weaken his will to defend the nation, and demanded an explanation.

Rouhani said he had been disqualified along with thousands of other parliamentary candidates. Previously he said “a way must be found to make the ‘protest vote’ the voice of the Iranian people”, without elaborating.

 

[Bonyduck Campersang]

Three US troops killed in drone attack in Jordan, at least two dozen injured

US Central Command confirmed in a statement on Sunday that three service members were killed and 25 injured in a one-way drone attack that “impacted at a base in northeast Jordan.”

President Joe Biden vowed on Sunday to hold those responsible for the attack “to account,” saying that while facts are still being gathered, “We know it was carried out by radical Iran-backed militant groups operating in Syria and Iraq.”