Middle East thread

I am open to non conspiracy explanations. Any offers ?
The regime was weak, only surviving due to being propped up by Russia, Iran and Hamas, and with its three backers being busy elsewhere and unable to provide support, it crashed down ?
I mean, it's not like you need to dig up any non-conspiracy explanations, they are pretty obvious and have been openly visible for years.
 
The regime was weak, only surviving due to being propped up by Russia, Iran and Hamas, and with its three backers being busy elsewhere and unable to provide support, it crashed down ?
I mean, it's not like you need to dig up any non-conspiracy explanations, they are pretty obvious and have been openly visible for years.

This. Assad has relied on Hezbollah fighters on the ground and Russian air assets for years, to keep the diversified mix of rebel forces in check.

Whatever was left of fighting will among his supporters and fighters, likely dissipated as soon as they suspected that the coward in Damascus would flee and leave them to their own fate. Through his reign of terror, Assad has murdered around half a million of his own countrymen, the majority being civilians. Assad's regime is gone primarily because the Syrians finally had enough.
That is the factor that really spooks the likes of Putin and Ali Khamenei.
 
Btw Sky News is reporting that Tass reports, that Assad and his family are in Moscow.

 
Also Turkey probably saw not reason to allow Assad in power anymore, with a second tier power like Russia sticking its nose in a region it doesnt not belong to. So Erdo decided it was the moment to take the lead and gave the rebles the green light, probably with US/Israel approval because now there is not Iran messing around anymore either and Hezbollah is really screwed.
 
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Israel seizes Golan buffer zone after Syrian troops leave positions​

Israel's prime minister has announced its military has temporarily seized control of a demilitarized buffer zone in the Golan Heights, saying the 1974 disengagement agreement with Syria had "collapsed" with the rebel takeover of the country.
Benjamin Netanyahu said he had ordered the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) to enter the buffer zone and "commanding positions nearby" from the Israeli-occupied part of the Golan.
"We will not allow any hostile force to establish itself on our border," he said.
A UK-based war monitor said Syrian troops had left their positions in Quneitra province, part of which lies inside the buffer zone, on Saturday.
On Sunday, the IDF told residents of five Syrian villages inside the zone to stay in their homes until further notice.
The Golan Heights is a rocky plateau about 60km (40 miles) south-west of Damascus.
Israel seized the Golan from Syria in the closing stages of the 1967 Six-Day War and unilaterally annexed it in 1981. The move was not recognised internationally, although the US did so unilaterally in 2019.
The Israeli move in the buffer zone came after Syrian rebel fighters captured the capital, Damascus, and toppled Bashar al-Assad's regime. He and his father had been in power in the country since 1971.
Forces led by the Islamist opposition group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) entered Damascus in the early hours of Sunday morning, before appearing on state television to declare Syria to now be "free".
Netanyahu said the collapse of the Assad regime was a "historic day in the Middle East".
"The collapse of the Assad regime, the tyranny in Damascus, offers great opportunity but also is fraught with significant dangers," he said.
He said events in Syria had been the result of Israeli strikes against Iran and the Iran-backed Lebanese armed group Hezbollah, Assad's allies, and insisted Israel would "send a hand of peace" to Syrians who wanted to live in peace with Israel.
The IDF seizure of Syrian positions in the buffer zone was a "temporary defensive position until a suitable arrangement is found", he said.
"If we can establish neighbourly relations and peaceful relations with the new forces emerging in Syria, that's our desire. But if we do not, we will do whatever it takes to defend the State of Israel and the border of Israel," he said.

After more than a year of war in the Middle East, Israel already has its hands full.

But the pace of events in Syria, it's northern neighbour, will be of real concern.

The IDF had already moved reinforcements to the occupied Golan.

In normal times, its warning to residents in several villages to stay in their homes because Israel would not hesitate to act if it felt it needed to would be seen as hugely provocative and enough to start a war.

Israel is especially concerned about who might get their hands on Bashar al-Assad's alleged arsenal of chemical weapons.

The leader of the Syrian rebellion is Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani. His family roots are in the occupied Golan Heights, where thousands of Israeli settlers now live alongside about 20,000 Syrians, most of them Druze, who stayed on after it was captured.

Israel will have no intention of giving that land up and is determined to protect its citizens.

During the 2011 Syrian uprising, Israel made the calculation that Assad, despite being an ally of both Iran and Hezbollah, was a better bet than what might follow his regime.

Israel will now be trying to calculate what comes next in Syria. Like everyone, it can only guess.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c77jrrxxn07o
 
Syria has no history of democracy, nor any tradition or culture for independent democratic government institutions. The odds of democratic rule finding its way into Syria now, is close to zero. It'll be the typical strongman rule divided territorially among the strongest factions.

The best case scenario we should realistically hope for, is a lasting peace once the factions are done fighting each other. To add, hope that Syrians will no longer be murdered or persecuted and thrown in Assads torture prisons.
 
Netanyahu claim annexation of Goland heights. But it's democratic annexation, so the world will be fine with it.
Leader of HTS says Israeli not enemy for New Syria, but Iran and Hisbolla are.
(yesterday he said Syria will return Golan heights), so... will see. IDF keep bombing Syria (100 strikes yesterday, 150 today. Mostly military and logistics targets)
 
Syria has no history of democracy, nor any tradition or culture for independent democratic government institutions. The odds of democratic rule finding its way into Syria now, is close to zero. It'll be the typical strongman rule divided territorially among the strongest factions.

The best case scenario we should realistically hope for, is a lasting peace once the factions are done fighting each other. To add, hope that Syrians will no longer be murdered or persecuted and thrown in Assads torture prisons.

Best case scenario moderate autocracy that's not to brutal.
 
True. Is is obvious today that the syrian army didn't fight, thus either the leadership left or changed sides. But the leadershiip wuitting can't explain it alone. They know, the soldiers themselves know, that the terrorists have a habit of summarily executing (or torturing and execuuting) them after surrendering. So what happened to all those woldeirs with weapons?
Also, neither Iran nor Russia made any effort to back Syria's government this time.
So the question is why all this?

The one thing coming out of this is plenty of chaos in the region. Perhaps that does serve many of the countries involved there. In different ways. It does not serve the syrians though, and does not explain the unwillingness to fight this time, after they fought just a few years ago. Very odd.
Unless a new governemnt was already organized somehow between all parties involved in Syria. But I very much doubt that. Too many involved, and Erdogan is notoriously treacherous.
Is a complete military collapse all that surprising? We saw in in Afghanistan in 2021, and on a likely more relevant level, we saw it in Zaire in the early 90s. The Syrian army was already exhausted by years of brutal war and was well known to be riddled at higher levels with corruption, favoritism, and simple incompetence. The conflict also entered a 'frozen' territory where the conflict largely continued so a select few could avoid having to make concessions. It is one thing to fight to stop genocidal terrorists; it is another to defend a bunch of sleazy kleptocrats. With the rebels making fairly compelling offers to ex-government fighters, it isn't too surprising that many might decide possible death at the hands of the rebels in the future vs certain death at the hands of the rebels now is a pretty easy choice.
Honestly, I think a comparison to the collapse of Zaire is a fairly useful comparison. Fingers crossed that Syria has already been through its version of "Africa's World War".


EDIT: Also, I swear the sword this Syrian rebel has is a replica from Skyrim....
Spoiler for size :

1733796545704.jpeg
 
Is is surprising because there are far more weapons and trained, veteran military from a recent tough civil war in Syria, than there were in Afghanistan or Zaire. The ond goverment was deserted but there is no reason to think that the structures that were part of it simply ceased to exist.

But now it appears that there were negotiations, not a simple collapse. Is the past PM still acting as PM? What is not clear at all, and I do not believe anyone can truthfully make a reliable guess, is what will be Syria's future. Too many factions, too many external actors all involved. This is not like the ISIS thing either. All the factions are within Syria and able to put if a fight if they need to. Then fact that they haven't yet hints more at negotiations than unflexibel sectarism. But not everyone can be satisfied.

I do not think any of these actors, internal and external, have any definite plans for the future. Coexistance between the kurds and the rest is unlikely because the kurds have been sitting on the wealthiets portions of Syria. Coexistance between all the others may be easier. But it is impossible to guess wether there will be negotiated arrangements for power sharing or wars. It depens on what many people do.

Coexistance between ideas of Greater Israel and Greater Turkey taking advantage of the apparent voin, not to forget the perennial kirdistan, is hardly likely to be any more peaceful. Perhaps none will do so because therisk is too high.
 
King David once glanced at Damascus apparently.

Local sources clarified to Al Mayadeen that the Israeli forces are now in the area of the town of Qatna, almost 20 kilometres from Damascus. Along the way, they captured several towns and villages, including Aarna, Bakasm, Reemeh, Hina, Qala, Jandal, Al-Husseiniya, Jita and Al-Hashab.

RT Arabic's sources also reported that Israeli troops occupied several villages and towns in southern Damascus. According to the channel's correspondent, Israeli drones are continuously attacking the Syrian capital amid the offensive.
 
Local sources clarified to Al Mayadeen that the Israeli forces are now in the area of the town of Qatna, almost 20 kilometres from Damascus. Along the way, they captured several towns and villages, including Aarna, Bakasm, Reemeh, Hina, Qala, Jandal, Al-Husseiniya, Jita and Al-Hashab.

RT Arabic's sources also reported that Israeli troops occupied several villages and towns in southern Damascus. According to the channel's correspondent, Israeli drones are continuously attacking the Syrian capital amid the offensive.

Got a better source than RT?
 
I am optimistic.

It does occur to me that having exhausted all the other alternatives they might even decide
to do the right thing and try this idea called democracy as the least worst system, initially as a
method of managing inter faction relations on the basis that jaw-jaw is better than war-war.
 
2024 has been a terrible year for the Iranian regime; Hamas and Hezbollah severely weakened and now Assad fleeing to Moscow.
Will the Iranian opposition exploit a potential window of opportunity?
 

More than 300 Israeli strikes on Syria since fall of Assad, reports say​

Israeli warplanes have reportedly carried out hundreds of airstrikes across Syria, including on the capital, Damascus.
The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) says it has documented more than 310 strikes by the IDF since the fall of the Assad regime on Sunday.
The strikes have targeted military facilities of the Syrian Army, including weapon warehouses, ammunition depots, airports, naval bases and research centres.
Israel says its actions are to prevent weapons falling "into the hands of extremists" as Syria transitions into a post-Assad era.

The SOHR reported that the attacks spanned Aleppo, Damascus and Hama, with more than 60 taking place overnight between Monday and Tuesday alone.
Reports say that many of the facilities hit have not merely been damaged, but completely destroyed.
Rami Abdul Rahman, the founder of the SOHR, described the impact of the strikes as destroying "all the capabilities of the Syrian army" and said that "Syrian lands are being violated".
The IDF denied that its troops had strayed into Syrian territory, telling the BBC that reports of tanks near Damascus are "false".
"IDF troops are stationed within the buffer zone, as stated in the past," a spokesperson said.
On Monday, the Israeli military released photos of its troops who crossed from the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights into the demilitarised buffer zone in Syria where UN peacekeepers are based.
The IDF seizure of Syrian positions in the buffer zone was a "temporary defensive position until a suitable arrangement is found", Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said.
"If we can establish neighbourly relations and peaceful relations with the new forces emerging in Syria, that's our desire. But if we do not, we will do whatever it takes to defend the State of Israel and the border of Israel," he said on Monday.

Asked about the IDF strikes on Monday night, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Saar said Israel was concerned only with defending its citizens.

"That's why we attack strategic weapons systems like, for example, remaining chemical weapons or long-range missiles and rockets in order that they will not fall into the hands of extremists," he said.

On Monday, the UN's chemical watchdog warns authorities in Syria to ensure that suspected stockpiles of chemical weapons are safe.

It is not known where or how many chemical weapons Syria has, but it's believed former President Bashar al-Assad kept stockpiles.

Israel's attacks come after Syrian rebel fighters captured the capital, Damascus, and toppled Bashar al-Assad's regime over the weekend. He and his father had been in power in the country since 1971.

Forces led by the Islamist opposition group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) entered Damascus in the early hours of Sunday, before appearing on state television to declare that Syria was now "free".
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cqx808q7lrno
 
I am optimistic.

It does occur to me that having exhausted all the other alternatives they might even decide
to do the right thing and try this idea called democracy as the least worst system, initially as a
method of managing inter faction relations on the basis that jaw-jaw is better than war-war.
For those that are left over, perhaps I would agree. Maybe there's no way to go but upward, barring any outside interference.

But I believe there will be hard times ahead for Christians, whom the Assad dynasty largely tolerated.
 
2024 has been a terrible year for the Iranian regime; Hamas and Hezbollah severely weakened and now Assad fleeing to Moscow.
Will the Iranian opposition exploit a potential window of opportunity?
More likely they build out the nukes in the next month or two.
 
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