(OOC: This whole thing has to be OOC, sorry. I cant discuss my PM very well in character, and its too long anyway. Apologies in advance for the ridiculous wordiness.)
I can only guess that BananaLees the strongest possible evidence refers to a prophet scan of my victory condition. I ask that he and the rest of you consider how well prophecy worked out concerning oyzar, and consider what other games may have been played with character interactions. You are, I think, being fooled yet again.
What follows is, except for those things relating directly to my starting PM, mostly speculation. I didnt keep up well with this game over the week or so prior to the hell_hound/oyzar update, and thats left me uninformed compared to most of you, I think. I freely admit that it may be wrong. But maybe it will be enough food for thought that those of you who know more can correct for any wrong assumptions. To put the conclusion first:
I accuse Seon of being a false prophet and a member of the Undercouncil
Seon implied to me that he was a prophet in an IM conversation prior to yesterdays update. He brought it up in the context of oyzars death, saying that because he had told oyzar the same thing shortly before he died, he believed that he himself would not survive the night. He repeated this twice, that he didnt think hed live; and again after the update told me he didnt think hed live another two days. I think hell survive just fine, despite what he says. Because he did survive the night, despite running around implying hes a prophet. And despite knowing I had the opportunity and the knowledge to kill him if I could have, hes still voting against me.
(This is a good place to point out that I knew the identity of the poisoner prior to the update as well. That person is also still alive, and can confirm my foreknowledge to anyone who already knows who he is. Seon is also aware that I knew this, by the way.)
If I were a threat to the caravan and could have killed anyone I chose, why would I leave a prophet and a poisoner alive in favor of killing someone who at that point, looked to be a reasonably easy target for the next days lynching anyway?
Seon told me something else of interest: that he was aware of the existence of a criminal group called the Undercouncil, who he described as a bunch of murderous thugs. He implied they must be the same as the brigands. This despite the implication in the previous update (the line I quoted) that there were two groups of killers, something an innocent with his knowledge should have noticed right away. And what did he do virtually as soon as the update with Niklas death went up? Focus attention right back on the brigands again and hence away from the Undercouncil despite the really, really obvious conclusions to be drawn from the death of a brigand at night. Its almost like he had that comment stored up and ready to fire off, isnt it?
Here is what I am speculating is going on; it fits all the facts Im aware of. Seon is a wolf prophet -- akin to Chandrasekhars role in Backwards Logics game, for those of you who remember that one. He (and any partner or partners he may have) is probably responsible for all the night-time killings, but certainly those of the guide (based on BananaLees PM and oyzars status), CCRunner (based on oyzars dying words), and Niklas. (Im not sure exactly how the brigands fit into this, or what exactly their victory condition might be.) He has a prophecy ability, useful in order to find and eliminate the brigands, with whom his group is in competition.
Im guessing that at some point in the first few days, Seon scanned Niklas and established contact to gain information, probably with a lie that Niklas had been scanned innocent. Niklas himself had reason to want me out of the way. On the first day, at a loss for what I could safely reveal from my PM, I stupidly decided to tell him that I had high strength. (Which I do.) I think that may be the source of what appears to have been a whispering campaign against me unable to kill me at night either because the brigands cant do it at all or because he was wary of my strength, Niklas decided to take me out another way. (Im basing the hypothetical whispering campaign on the fact that when I did become active in the game again, several players did not return PMs or were unusually quiet with me; and the lone exception (besides Niklas himself, Seon, and Tasslehoff), Winston Hughes, pursued an almost identical line of questioning with me as Niklas himself had used. Are you the poisoner? Are you a thief? Blahblahblah. They also both managed to get out of me some nearly-accurate details of my starting PM, something I think Seon learned of through one of them and is now using against me.)
Anyway, last night I suppose Seon decided that Niklas had come to the end of his usefulness, and killed him. Meanwhile, aware of suspicions against me, he decided a scan would be in order whether for scapegoating purposes or because he thought Niklas might be trying to disguise an alliance with his suspicions, I dont know. In any case, he found something he could use.
I am not an innocent. However, Im not a threat to the caravan, either not to most of you, anyway, which should amount to the same thing. My victory condition is titled Kingpin. To win, I need to acquire two items: devilweed and prophets tongue, which are both drugs, and escape with them back to our original destination. (The escape would happen automatically if I got all the drugs.) I have no ability, but several items: a third drug, a knife with which I would be able to kill one person at night, and a coded inventory list Im supposed to have stolen from Tasslehoff at the outset of the journey (sorry, Tasslehoff) which is supposed to give me clues as to where the items are but which has so far yielded nothing that makes any sense.
My backstory is that Im a small-time drug dealer looking to move up in the world. I heard rumors that there were others among the caravan, and want to prevent them muscling in on my turf. Tasslehoff is described to me as originally perceived as a potential threat, but after the ease with which I stole the inventory list (Im described as no natural thief, and am not one within the context of the game itself), I come to believe that he is ineffectual and harmless, and hence will serve as a convenient illusion of law and order. My personal goal is to protect him for as long as Im around myself.
Im also described as no natural killer; hence I can only use the knife once, or Id be caught. The last line of the PM warns me that Im still small fry, and there are much bigger fish in the sea this, I now assume, refers to the presence of the Undercouncil.
Which brings me back to Seon. I know Im ridiculously wordy, so Ill sum up my evidence against him.
1. (I couldnt fit this in above, and its only circumstantial, but anyway
) I believe he lied about not being let in on the whole hell_hound debacle. Everything he talked to me about in our conversations implied that he was clued-in enough to have known what was going on with that. Yet he made a point of making sure people were aware he knew nothing of it. Why?
2. He all but told me he was a prophet, while I would still have had a chance to kill him for it, yet he accused me anyway despite surviving the night.
3. The poisoner also survived the night Seon knows I knew about him prior to the update as well.
4. Seon has repeatedly attempted to draw attention away from the killers I believe to be from the Undercouncil and onto the brigands, despite that all innocent speculation at that time should have been pointing in the other direction.
5. Seon had foreknowledge of the existence of the Undercouncil.
Thats about it (finally), except that in hopes of at least surviving and having a chance to accomplish my personal goal, I am willing to give up my knife. First person who wants it and wasnt part of the hell_hound bandwagon (either day) and isnt named Seon or Winston Hughes (my best guess as the last brigand due to the similarity of his and Niklass questioning there must be a third because Ive never heard of brigands with zero weapons and neither Niklas nor oyzar had one when they died) speak up and its yours. That will remove me as a threat to any of you, even the two drug smugglers. Daytime item transfers are public, if anyones forgotten; youll all know I actually followed through with it.