I suspect even Newt knows that he can't really win. He should be pretty formidable with his fund raising, and he's got great name recognition, but he's got to be running as an "idea man" that will shape the campaigns of the other guys races.
I think Newt is probably smarter than all of the other Republicans likely to run (except maybe Romney), but everybody knows that his personal baggage problem is rather huge. I wonder who he expects his core GOP constituency to be. Southerners? Technocrats? Palin-ites? It can't be the religious or the Tea Party...