Notes on the Decline of a Great Nation

Murky

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Here's another article from Spiegel Online.

It's depression inducing but it rings true so far as I can tell.

The United States is frittering away its role as a model for the rest of the world. The political system is plagued by an absurd level of hatred, the economy is stagnating and the infrastructure is falling into a miserable state of disrepair. On this election eve, many Americans are losing faith in their country's future.

The monumental National Mall in Washington, DC, 1.9 miles (3 kilometers) long and around 1,586 feet wide at its broadest point, is a place that showcases the United States of America is in its full glory as a world power. A walk along the magnificent swath of green space, between the white dome of the Capitol to the east and the Lincoln Memorial, a temple erected to honor former president Abraham Lincoln, at its western end, leads past men in bronze and stone, memorials for soldiers and conquerors, and the nearby White House. It's a walk that still creates an imperial impression today.

The Mall is lined with museums and landscaped gardens, in which America is on display as the kind of civil empire that promotes the arts and sciences. There are historic sites, and there are the famous steps of the Lincoln Memorial where Martin Luther King, Jr. once spoke of his dream, and of the dreams of a country to be a historic force, one that would serve the wellbeing of all of mankind. Put differently, the National Mall is an open-air museum for an America that, in 2012, is mostly a pleasant memory.

After a brilliant century and a terrible decade, the United States, in this important election year, has reached a point in its history when the obvious can no longer be denied: The reality of life in America so greatly contradicts the claim -- albeit one that has always been exaggerated -- to be the "greatest nation on earth," that even the most ardent patriots must be overcome with doubt.

This realization became only too apparent during and after Hurricane Sandy, the monster storm that ravaged America's East Coast last week, its effects made all the more devastating by the fact that its winds were whipping across an already weakened country. The infrastructure in New York, New Jersey and New England was already in trouble long before the storm made landfall near Atlantic City. The power lines in Brooklyn and Queens, on Long Island and in New Jersey, in one of the world's largest metropolitan areas, are not underground, but are still installed along a fragile and confusing above-ground network supported by utility poles, the way they are in developing countries.

Read the rest online.

What do you think? Is America in a state of decline?
 
America was never really a model for the rest of the world to follow. That role has always been the commonwealth nations.
 
Don't all countries go through a process of re-inventing themselves from time to time? Just like people?

Of course the US may be in the process of losing its position as Top Nation. It can't hold that place for ever. But I don't see it happening just yet.
 
I can't help but feel that the Germans have a noticeable case of Schadenfreude with regards to the US. But what do they mean by "decline"? Decline from what? A temporary position as the sole "superpower"? Sandy hitting a "weakened country"? They're acting like the US is crumbling, and that it only needs a nudge to knock down the whole thing.
 
Are we really actually declining overall, or are large parts of the rest of the world rapidly advancing while we remain static/advance much slower now?
 
I can't help but feel that the Germans have a noticeable case of Schadenfreude with regards to the US. But what do they mean by "decline"? Decline from what? A temporary position as the sole "superpower"? Sandy hitting a "weakened country"? They're acting like the US is crumbling, and that it only needs a nudge to knock down the whole thing.

That's the real puzzle about commentary on the decline of the US. The people who keep mentioning it (sometime with a thinly veiled glee) aren't those who are actually on the rise - namely the Asians. But rather people who are declining even faster, the Europeans.
 
Are we really actually declining overall, or are large parts of the rest of the world rapidly advancing while we remain static/advance much slower now?


We are not in absolute decline. What we really are is in a state of growth that is much weaker than there is any economic reason for. And so we are being overtaken. But we are also choosing to throw away most of the advantages we have. So relative decline and stagnation can easily turn into absolute decline because of the choices we make.

I keep tell'in ya'all, conservatism will kill us. :p
 
Would anyone agree with me that whether or not we decline is immaterial comsidering we've done a great deal (with our allies) to make the 'world order' well suited to our economic, political and strategic goals?

Surely this is more important long term than any temporary measure of success or decline. The fundamentals of the world system aren't changing and they heavily favor our interests.
 
In my opinion, the U.S. is in a state of decline brought on by more than a quarter century of unrealistically low taxes coupled with increasing income inequality, a bloated military budget, and an addiction to imported oil.

I do not, however, believe the U.S. is doomed to a state of permanent decline. The question is, will we have the political will to tackle these challenges and ensure that future generations of Americans will enjoy a similar degree of freedom, security, and prosperity. I sometimes see some encouraging signs, but I don't see it happening quickly.
 
In my opinion, the U.S. is in a state of decline brought on by more than a quarter century of unrealistically low taxes coupled with increasing income inequality, a bloated military budget, and an addiction to imported oil.

Nothing to do with US decline.
It's China catching up. No China and the US remains the unassaliable leader, low taxes or high.
 
The US is declining, sure. But think of it this way - going from number 1000 to 900 is decreasing in size, but number 1000 to 5 is also decreasing in size as well. I believe that, at least within the next few decades, it is the former. The latter... well, that may be the case in maybe a century or a few, but given how influential and dominating the US is still, despite all its problems (which, I think, does show its power), I don't think its power is going anywhere soon, for better or worse.
 
Its not in decline, there have been some rough years recently, but its not all doom and gloom. The economy is bouncing back, across the isle politics seems to be happening (I have high fiscal cliff hopes, along with certain Republicans changing their stance on immigration post-election), and we are still a force to be reckoned with in international diplomacy (we had a very large influence over the cease-fire in Gaza). We are stable, democratic, and powerful, all while the rest of the world seems to be going through a hell of a lot worse times than we are.

And all the stuff about Sandy is crap. Sandy was an incredibly unusual storm, so yeah, the effects are going to he a hell of a lot worse than they normally would. The infrastructure may not be entirely up to par, but it was strong enough to prevent a lot of deaths that would have happened otherwise. Sandy's destruction also allows for implementation of new infrastructure and rebuilding a newer better network, more or less akin to the way Chicago rebuilt itself after the fire.

Anyways, I'm just kind of rambling. This doom and gloom stuff pops up every other year or so, but all I really hear is neo-yellow scare stuff.
 
Would anyone agree with me that whether or not we decline is immaterial comsidering we've done a great deal (with our allies) to make the 'world order' well suited to our economic, political and strategic goals?

Surely this is more important long term than any temporary measure of success or decline. The fundamentals of the world system aren't changing and they heavily favor our interests.


Up to a point. Consider 1945. The US had half the world's GDP. But the reason the number was so out of whack is that all of the world's other strong economies had been either severely damaged or outright destroyed in the war. Now as these other nations recovered, clearly maintaining 50% is entirely unrealistic for a nation with ~5% of the world's population. But to what extent is that actually true? I don't think anyone has ever made the argument that the US could have maintained 50%, and we have been maintaining somewhat over 20%. Now helping other nations get back on their feet was clearly in our long term interest, even if we would have been more powerful absolutely had we maintained 50%. So, as a relative decline, it was both something it would have taken a lot of military effort to maintain and something that wasn't really in our interest.

But then you have to consider the nature of economic development. We often don't see it, because other nations so frequently make poor choices, but it is actually easier to play catch-up economically than it is to lead. The tech has been invented. The organization has been invented. All that's needed is to copy it.

But there are also very real advantages to being the leader. And maintaining a really big lead, while it is hard work, is far from impossible. What the US has done is to stop doing most of the hard work that is necessary for maintaining the lead. So the world caught up. In part with our assistance, but in no small part because of our neglect of taking the time and effort to stay out in front.

The US is like a sports team that wracked up a large lead in the first half of the game and then sent all it's starting players home early.
 
Its not in decline, there have been some rough years recently, but its not all doom and gloom. The economy is bouncing back, across the isle politics seems to be happening (I have high fiscal cliff hopes, along with certain Republicans changing their stance on immigration post-election), and we are still a force to be reckoned with in international diplomacy (we had a very large influence over the cease-fire in Gaza). We are stable, democratic, and powerful, all while the rest of the world seems to be going through a hell of a lot worse times than we are.

And all the stuff about Sandy is crap. Sandy was an incredibly unusual storm, so yeah, the effects are going to he a hell of a lot worse than they normally would. The infrastructure may not be entirely up to par, but it was strong enough to prevent a lot of deaths that would have happened otherwise. Sandy's destruction also allows for implementation of new infrastructure and rebuilding a newer better network, more or less akin to the way Chicago rebuilt itself after the fire.

Anyways, I'm just kind of rambling. This doom and gloom stuff pops up every other year or so, but all I really hear is neo-yellow scare stuff.

If current trends continue China will overtake the American economy in the next decade. Your military advantage may take longer, but you will have too understand your number 2 from then on out. Thats not "neo-yellow scare stuff" it's the reality.
 
I don't understand the obsession people have with decline narratives. Most of them are overstated and inaccurate. Take for instance the Byzantines who "declined" over the course of 382 years (Manzikert to the fall of Constantinople) or the Ottomans who "declined" over the course of 220 years (The Great Turkish War to World War I). I don't buy that you can call something a decline if it takes several hundred years to result in a fall. If America is in "decline" but we're still around in 2398 then it's not a decline.

There's nothing in the US that can't be fixed. Infrastructure can be rebuilt and modernized, socio-economic reforms can result in more equitable distribution of wealth and greater economic growth, scale down in military presence in certain places abroad that don't particularly need large deployments and refocusing on Asia-Pacific, the Middle, East and Africa doesn't mean our influence in Europe has diminished. Rather we're focusing on the future, places that are going to matter or already matter more than Europe. We have an intransigent political party but it's no worse than the kind of political polarization we faced on the eve of the Civil War. We survived that, and it was the greatest existential challenge the US ever faced and we managed. This is nothing compared to that.


Ahhhmurikkkkaaaaaa!!!!!!
 
I don't understand the obsession people have with decline narratives. Most of them are overstated and inaccurate. Take for instance the Byzantines who "declined" over the course of 382 years (Manzikert to the fall of Constantinople) or the Ottomans who "declined" over the course of 220 years (The Great Turkish War to World War I). I don't buy that you can call something a decline if it takes several hundred years to result in a fall. If America is in "decline" but we're still around in 2398 then it's not a decline.
We feed on the negativity to push ourselves to do better.
Everyone else just loves to hate. :)
 
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