NotW LVII - Tempus Fugit (game thread)

[Askthepizzaguy]

Dead:

Spoiler :

Spaceman
BSmith

Alive:
21. Askthepizzaguy
--------------------------------------------------------
11. Lohrenswald
20. dicetosser1
19. Cuthillius* Claim
1. Kennigit* Mechanics focus/role theft target
14. Choxorn* Bus driver target
--------------------------------------------------------
8. Golden1Knight
3. Zack
6. Sprig
17. Lassie
--------------------------------------------------------
13. Takhisis
--------------------------------------------------------
9. KingMorgan- True null
12. DuffKilligan
--------------------------------------------------------
18. Newyn- If Auto is scum, Newyn is still null
22. Cass
23. atheotes- weird
5. Snerk- If Auto is scum, Snerk is a villager
15. Al Sipsclar- If Jarrema is scum, Al is likely to be a villager
16. Mat93- If scum bus driver, likely Mat93 villager but not a lock
--------------------------------------------------------
4. Jarrema
10. Autolycus
Murska

Expected mafia powers:

Spoiler :

1) Nightkill (not a team kill if we have a watcher)
2) Role theft (could be villager, but highly doubt it)
3) Bus driver (highly likely to be scum, any "town" bus driver really needs to holster it or use it as a doctor power, don't hold your breath about this one being a villager)
4) If true seer exists, godfather likely (not proven)
5) Roleblock (possible but unlikely to be combined with Bus driver)

Breakdown of leans list:

1) Askthepizzaguy- actually going to be clear to others besides myself this game without needing to be scanned based on role. EZ mode.

2) Lohrenswald- went into this extensively yesterday. To save time and space I'm not repeating myself here. This can be wrong but I probably never vote him. You'd need a guilty peek of him and a hard claim seer before I vote there, barring a catastrophe.

3) Dicetosser- (a) tone [not especially reliable but] (b) where he stresses words when he stresses words (c) how/why he's town-reading people and how/why he's accusing others and following up on those suspicions is quite consistent with his town game (etc)

4) Cuthillius- (a) Nothing pingy (b) Unforced essentially watcher claim makes him always die this game, I believe. So his role makes him a villager unless alive in the extremely late game. And I believe it's possible I was attacked and didn't die based on the probable jailkeeper type role. [Now strongly leaning town jailkeeper, I did after all claim not seer, and I'm generally town-read so this is a good pick for that player.]

5. Kennigit- (a) Nothing pingy (b) his focus all of d1 was on mechanics and his role, like a preoccupied townie (c) claimed target of likely-scum role-theft ability

6. Choxorn- While I can't claim he didn't ping me on d1, it was based on very little. I believe the scums have a bus driver, I believe if choxorn has a scanner or other townie power and I suspected him d1 he uses his power on me immediately unfortunately. So this isn't very strong but I believe his claim that he was bus driven to Mat93.

Those are my strong or relatively strong townies.

7) Golden1Knight- This feels identical to his town game and although it would be easy to replicate, I feel like his tone and attitude is 100% pure townie for him. Having towned with him a large handful of times and worked closely with him a couple times. This is as strong a read as Golden1Knight reads get. It can be wrong but I doubt it. Still, it's based on thin reasons so I can't put him higher, despite my strong feelings.

8) Zack- This read began thin and still is thin but getting more solid. He can fake frustration/paranoia/fill-in-the-blank emotion all day long and is basically impossible to lock clear based on cold reading him because that read will usually be wrong. However I feel his emotions are genuine and that means he's a solid town lean, but no especially high confidence level.

9) Sprig- (a) nothing pingy (b) Auto flips scum, Sprig is clear (c) 259 feels like a real town thought. However this is conditional on a thing, and not especially confident on my end. But that's where I think he is, odds-wise.

10) Lassie- (a) nothing pingy (b) thoughts feel like a free flowing villager. However Lassie's scum game should have advanced to the point where it is replicable for him, so I can't be confident here. Odds-wise this feels correct.

Those are my relatively solid town leans which I am not willing to bet my life on, but still strongly support and would strongly advocate against lynching today or soon.

11) Takhisis- I can't put him in my village yet, and I see what Zack is saying. But I think it indicates the other way for Takhisis. The little bit of orange is me saying I would not be especially surprised if I'm wrong, and that Takh is scum. I just don't think it's the case. So I'm putting him in my village on a provisional basis.

That's my village. Murska has been booted out because I get icky feelings re-reading him. So if I was wrong inside my original 9 picks, I think Murska is the candidate to beat.

Village up, Null down

12) Kingmorgan- I don't think he's an inactive scum but there's no way to tell for sure using in-thread data. He also posted why he missed d1 so he will presumably become active. I'm not comfortable pushing there because of the reasons why he's null.

13) I don't know Duff and I can't glean his alignment from his posts so far. If he's scum he can be posting exactly like this but there's no pings. I don't think he's scum but I have no reason to clear him and I wanted to learn more, which is why I targeted him. Even if I gain no info from targeting him, he may gain info, which can help me read him sometimes, which is better than nothing. I won't push here and I'll see if his sub is someone I can get a read off of.

Null but unwilling to vote up, Others down.

14) Newyn is very difficult to read and I get mild pings off of his posts. Will go into detail in a separate post. Maybe won't push it today because it's not strong.

15) Cass is not herself at all, though this can be because of IRL reasons. That means her posts when she does make them have to be especially villagery for me to clear her somehow this game. For now, I think she's outside her village range. Maybe won't push it today to give her that chance of being added, because if she posts, I should be able to add her sooner or later, if she's a villager. I'm confident I can read her properly with time and posts.

16) Atheotes is a little weird this game. For him, his day one was unusually involved, despite his low presence, possibly indicating he randed scum, but that's not super reliable. It's nothing crazy scummy or anything but I'm sensing some unusual vibes. Want to see where that goes with additional observation.

17) Snerk is really hard for me to read this game, however his voting day one could be revealing if he tried to lynch a scum. I would be willing to lynch his suspect before I would lynch him, on the basis of possibly clearing him if it was correct. Gives me strange vibes in certain posts.

18) Al Sipsclar is in that same category. If Jarrema is scum, and I think one of Auto or Jarrema are scum, then Al is probably clear. But he's tricky to read and gives me strange vibes in certain posts.

19) Mat93 is a very conflicted read. His posts make me feel mostly negative, but his reaction to me questioning him yesterday about his vote felt ok, and if he was the target of a bus driving attempt, with a possible vig in the game, I think it's super risky to bus drive an unknown power onto your own partner. It might be a scan or a vig. So, if the bus driver is a scumbag, Mat93 should be a villager often.

Negative/null but not pushing there up, Others down

20) Jarrema
21) Autolycus
22) Murska

Can't clear these folks and they give me almost totally negative vibes, and I'm semi-confident one or both of Jarrema and Autolycus are scum based on EOD1. Murska dropped like a lead bowling ball since my last read, which in retrospect was reading villager intentions into otherwise null posts, and not many of them. I feel his participation since then is un-villagery.

Should go into these folks in a different post.

I'm probably always lynching inside of Autolycus, Jarrema, and Murska today.

 

[Askthepizzaguy]

I need a break and breakfast, so follow ups on posts that pinged me and players that pinged me will be coming later today.

 

[Askthepizzaguy]

Town bus driver needs to be super super pure and heroic in their targeting and claim by mid-game unforced, or claim immediately, otherwise the bus driver is always scum.

Role theft is almost impossible to not be a scum role here. If not, claim immediately today.

Those roles are slightly more useful to town than a miller, but approximately as often detrimental to town, and it is much more protown to claim it now, if you ever claim it later you always get lynched barring extreme evidence.

Paranoid doctor / Jailkeeper whichever you prefer is very very very often a townie here.

Town roleblocker is more likely than in most games but treat with suspicion anyway.

Being cleared by a true seer is not absolute proof this game due to likely mechanics in play. Treat as useful info but don't lock clear.

 

[Murska]

Sorry for being low activity this weekend, I've got a RL gaming meet.

I'll go over things once I've got the time, until then I'll try to skim along and reply if there's anything important.

 

[Newyn]

What makes you think those roles can claim so easily Pizza?
I've been clearly told that if I claim it, I lose it and my ability is arguably only marginally useful.

 

[Snerk]

Oh lord, waking up to ten new pages it is then.

Anybody know the tally?

I'll probably vote Auto as it would give a lot of info if he flips wolf. And my minor case on him from yesterday still stands I guess. But I'd like to know the tally first.

Also, as usual I'm up for sharing roles and stuff via PM. Although is private communication allowed in this game? How about player created QT's? Hmm, to the rules!

edit: No communication outside the game allowed.

 

[Sprig]

Have you thought about it yet?

Sorry typo. I am asking you to think about it further.

 

[Askthepizzaguy]

What makes you think those roles can claim so easily Pizza?
I've been clearly told that if I claim it, I lose it and my ability is arguably only marginally useful.

The claim would be for the purposes of removing role-based suspicion. Anything that avoids mislynches is useful, arguably moreso than actually having the power.

Example my power is marginally useful but much better simply for establishing my whereabouts.

 

[Askthepizzaguy]

I can't prove it, but when others get hit by the same vortex it will become more established,

Even without my day ability, being blocked shows I wasn't either murderer, or the bus driver, or the role thief. Doesn't leave me a lot of space to be scum even if it's not impossible yet.

More information will come as the game progresses. That's a lot of information that is largely beneficial to town floating around. You find townies this game as your top priority, that's wildly more important than using your abilities imo.

 

[Arakhor]

I have asked Winston Hughes to sub in for Duff Killigan. Tally coming up.

 

[Newyn]

I'm never lynching you this game unless you survive to the end but I personally don't agree with your view that claiming is the best option.
There are usually better ways to prove yourself than giving up your power especially if your power is anything like mine which would be completely useless in the hands of scum.

 

[Askthepizzaguy]

I'm never lynching you this game unless you survive to the end but I personally don't agree with your view that claiming is the best option.
There are usually better ways to prove yourself than giving up your power especially if your power is anything like mine which would be completely useless in the hands of scum.

Not every power should claim, but a role theft is pretty much a permanent roleblock, way more powerful than a standard mafia roleblocker, and therefore is almost always scum.

If it is somehow (incredibly) the case that that role is a townie, claiming now largely mitigates the suspicions against that role. And this game is really and truly weird. That role will almost always cause massive amounts of problems to town and I'd rather it be gone from the game and know where the source was, whether we lynch that person or not.

A bus driver is very probably useful to the scums, though it can be impressive in very lucky or very wise town hands. I just think it's a scum's role. Claiming now, or bus driving the scum's murder onto a scumbag, or even the vig's kill onto a scumbag, would help alleviate that suspicion.

Those are the only two roles which are scummy enough that you shouldn't ever have them alive and unclaimed much later in the game than right now. Those are special cases.

 

[Arakhor]

Mid-Morning Tally

Autolycus: Newyn, ATPG, dicetosser1
Jarrema: Lassie, Takhisis
dicetosser1: Cuthillius, Zack
Zack: DuffKilligan

Not Voting: Everyone else

 

[Newyn]

Not every power should claim, but a role theft is pretty much a permanent roleblock, way more powerful than a standard mafia roleblocker, and therefore is almost always scum.

If it is somehow (incredibly) the case that that role is a townie, claiming now largely mitigates the suspicions against that role. And this game is really and truly weird. That role will almost always cause massive amounts of problems to town and I'd rather it be gone from the game and know where the source was, whether we lynch that person or not.

A bus driver is very probably useful to the scums, though it can be impressive in very lucky or very wise town hands. I just think it's a scum's role. Claiming now, or bus driving the scum's murder onto a scumbag, or even the vig's kill onto a scumbag, would help alleviate that suspicion.

Those are the only two roles which are scummy enough that you shouldn't ever have them alive and unclaimed much later in the game than right now. Those are special cases.

A role thief, sure. If it's a town role, claim because it'll hurt town more often than not.

Bus driver on the other hand, I feel is a big enough risk/reward situation that it's questionable whether claiming is as clear cut as you say it is.

Of course, that's assuming that other roles also have a similar clause to mine. We definitely don't want bus driving to fall into the wrong hands.

 

[Askthepizzaguy]

Alternative, town bus driver can holster it and not use it.

I am not saying that it will clear them if they claim, but random bus drivings do not make you look townie or help people solve. Unless you miraculously cause a scan or vig or murder to land on a scum exactly, holstering it is vastly better than using it.

Don't screw with the town's vigilante, seer, or protection roles. Holstering after this point will be points in favor, but not clearing.

 

[Cass_]

Alriiiight finally at the computer and catching up. Read/multiquoted to #478 before being interrupted by dinner etc. Responding to stuff and then I'll try and get my thoughts in some sort of order before I have to go to bed

Well, at least I was right

What is this in reference to? Right about what?

I see, thanks.
So when n0 peeks isn't a thing here, it's more of a level question, if scums would kill bsmith to make autolycus look bad, or because he was correct (but that just seems a bit silly, considering his vote didn't seem to be based on anything else than bsmith not saying anything, meaning bsmith could just simply say stuff, today, and at least that part wouldn't be a problem).
I think it's faily null, in regards of getting an idea of his alignment.

Probably more worth to look into how votes developed on the wagons, while of course also looking at Autolycus' posts(I recall he had almost none, anyway I'm reading thread now, so I'll find out)[/spoiler]

FTR I agree with the bottom part, but do n0 peeks ever include scum scans? IIRC I've only seen random Town as an option.

Not threatening Pizza. If Pizza is confident enough in his read on Auto, I'm going to consider taking a (crazy) leap of faith.

1. Why the bold over your own reasons?
IMO tying yourself to other people's reads and justifying it as a leap of faith is never overly helpful if Town, and at this stage is potentially more likely to come from scum.

My reads:
askthepizzaguy: hmmmm -votes for me, changes at Zacks' first suggestion - strange, too feeble of him.
Zack: silliest read in quite a while ??????
(the above two are voting for the only person I can prove is a townie, i.e. me)
Lassie: coöperative so far, but what've you been up to?
Newyn: shameless bandwaggonner
Jarema: good point by Lassie
Cuth: please explain more, if possible
everyone else: where are you?

Yey readable-ish reads!
FTR I agree with most of these as slightly/possibly scummy aorn, but
1. Your question wrt 'why didn't we lynch Lohr' was strange/possibly scummy even if not quite worth a vote at that point imo - what was the purpose of it/where is Lohr in your reads atm?
2. What do you mean by the bold wrt Lassie? How is that relevant to your read?
3. What do you think of Auto?

 

[Cass_]

Why would a vig target ATPG n1?

What makes you think the attempt was made by a Vig?

i'm okay with any of takh, zack, or auto honestly

Why, for each of these?

Jarrema or Autolycus should die today

I can agree with this for now. Tempted to switch to Auto over Jarrema.

he seems really panicky about getting votes

his entire world right now is getting people not to vote him

I think the reaction to votes is null at worst for now FWIW (AFAICT Tak is always reactive to votes on him, and was perhaps moreso in Rappers where he was Town than Snakes where he was maf).

Why do you say 'his entire world'? Considering Tak has actually been questioning and providing views on other players/events it makes the whole thing seem rather opportunistic imo.

I mean, it's not like auto's behavior here is any different from his play in aspiring rappers, but that hasn't changed your opinion of him. You're being weird with tak

This I can at least agree with.

looking thru the spaceman vote period

knight and duff look good

didn't mind atheotes h was first vote and said he was humouring pizza

not keen on mat sure why not? stinks

Jarrema is interesting...."fast things are best" seems mafiaish cause he just wants a townie lynched and quick but is it TWTBW??

kennigts post 189 is just weird wanna see where he ended up

AUTO went for lohrenswald.

and mat got off went lohren talks to pizza then goes back claiming compromise

auto is in lead then lohren votes spaceman

zack quotes a previous game and votes spaceman

that's the last vote

Dice! FTR noted/mindmelded with pretty much all of this . Dice's early snap at Zack also consistent Town meta IMO but
*Crashtackles*
Why are your thoughts/opinions/reasoning on each of the last (bold) actions? - And why did you leave the reasons out?

 

[Cass_]

I tend to agree that Zack isn't looking good, leading lynches on villagers yet again and his attitude and actions are reminding me a lot of his last game where he was scum.

Vote Zack

FTR I don't like Zack's approach to Tak at this point but the bold bothers me here.
@Duff (if you're still around) can you please elaborate:
1. What do you mean 'leading lynches on villagers'?;
2. Do you have specifics/examples about what's reminding you of the last game?

so town for me atm

Pizza
Lohren
Duff
knight


scum
mat slight waffle here very slight tho
zack
auto

vote auto he flips scum I think zack is confirmed

Have you looked at Lassie? I'm getting off vibes and not voting/not being around in the lead up to EOD is off meta as far as I can tell.

Even taking into account this isn't Cass' home board, and how unproductive spammy town was last game,

Feb 17, 2016, 07:49 PM
Feb 19, 2016, 02:35 PM
Feb 19, 2016, 02:36 PM
Feb 19, 2016, 08:06 PM
Feb 19, 2016, 09:41 PM
Feb 19, 2016, 10:08 PM

And only 6 posts is a particularly out of character and scummy postcount/timestamp combination, even ignoring the content, for Cass.

Cass should be nearly as irrepressible as me or Lassie. Even the futility of last game should never cause her enthusiasm and post levels to drop this much, and even if she had made a conscious decision to post less regardless of what role she randed, it still shouldn't be this small from her.

This can be wrong since my meta on Cass isn't extensive, but I have felt town Cass' townie-ness radiate before and this isn't that so it needs to be explained and examined.

Why would you of all people ignore my content (given your previous demonstration of clearing me Town by effectively analysing what I say)??
Also, why not come to me directly and ask what's going on rather than pushing so much at once?

Only one double post seems really wrong, for example.

Why? Read my content wrt timing for each of my posts. When I've been able to get to the computer and post, I've multiquoted everything I had thoughts/questions on until current ITT and then participated RT where I could keep up.

 

[Cass_]

You're suspicious of auto but not me?

Strange question IMO. How are the two of you at all similar/related?

Hm. Voteicetosser.

I find the way in which he comes to the same conclusion as everyone else a little off, particularly as I feel it's in a slightly shady and misdirectional fashion. His reads list is also very consensusy.

Cuth, can you elaborate on the bold? FWIW I'm not getting that vibe.

Most reads not based on all that much, but I'll just do this for the fun of looking back after game:

people I've gotten town impression from:
ATPG
Cuth
Newyn
choxorn
sprig
takhisis
kennigit
Al sipsclar
cass

Spoiler :

people I've gotten no impression from, or who I'm just not sure where to put:
dice
Lohrenswald
Zack
Snerk
Golden1Knight
atheotes
mat93

people I think there's extra reason to be suspicion of:
DuffKilligan
Murska
Jarrema
Autolycus

Ok for most of this but what specifically gives you town impressions on:
- Kenni?
- Al Sips?
- Me?

welcome to my world.

On unrelated note, if you guys think that either me or Auto have to be scum, I will happily vote: Autolycus

Jarrema, do you have thoughts on anyone else??

Here i go to cast aspersions based on my skim read through.

Not a fan of Tak's behavior. A few very off posts so far. Jumping back on Lohren I feel is pretty scummy. However, his soft claim yesterday still give him a bit of leeway for the moment.

Auto is still valid.

No Scum vibes from Zack.

No read on atpg. Not that I'll likely get one.

Dicetosser is town

Cuth is shady.

Lassie slight town.

Can you elaborate on the bold WRT Tak?
1. Why does his behaviour bother you?;
2. Which other posts if any were 'off' for you?

Have you played with the others much before?
3. How many games have you played with Zack as Town/Scum? How confident are you in your ability to read him?
4. What makes Dice and Lassie town for you?
5. What makes Cuth shady?

Particularly interested in your early reads/reasons for Dice and Lassie given that they're relatively new.

OOC: You select all the posts you want to quote by clicking the ‘MULTI’ button at the lower right-hand corner of each, once (it changes colour). Then, when you reach the last one you want to quote, use the ‘QUOTE’ button on that one. If done properly then you get all the selected posts in one convenient post.

But no nested quotes though.

You commented on my supposed fixation on ATPG and scumread me, while saying nothing about DuffKilligan's admitted obsession/tunneling with me, while townreading him. And you had a throwaway vote on me d1 (for the aforementioned "fixation").

So I dunno why Sprig would townread you.

FWIW the bold at least is generally how Town!Dice hunts those he thinks are scum. Gut read on something that stands out, followed by obstinate vote...

For the record, I'm not worried at all, and this is not me worked up. Go re-read my posts, I'm actually pretty calm. There's no panic. You are creating a narrative that doesn't exist.

Zack, can you link me to a recent game where you played Town?

 

[Cass_]

Summary thoughts on above in case previous TLDR/skimming.

[/B]Lassie - feels considerably different to last game, particularly volume/out-there-ish-ness. Not a fan of the lack of activity in the build-up to EoD/abstention from the vote. Mindmelded wrt Lohr in the beginning but on re-read ?sheeping Cuth and Spaceman? Some concern over Auto discussion early day 2 and push for Jarrema over Auto but eh ?tinfoil w/o flips.

Tak - also different to last game but not necessarily in a suspicious way. FWIW I specifically pushed him to try changing his meta to be more helpful in the DT of Rapper's game so it's potentially something like that. I like that he's posting clearer thoughts/reads/questions and tinfoil on buddying etc aside think changing his style this much as scum would probably be overly risky. Apart from the 'why didn't we lynch Lohr' I'm liking his pushes and questions. I'll lol if he is scum because I thought the same a lot of the time in Snakes when he was even less clear, but I'm not voting him any time soon simply for that change.

Zack - is possibly scummy for his jumping on Tak and Dice. ?Opportunistic with Tak and seems overly reactive to Dice's pushing. Also ?fits the deflect/discredit meta. Need to know if Zack also does this when coming under suspicion as Town.

Dice is looking ok to me. The only difference to his usual meta so far is his hedging on me/putting a caveat in that I could be scum, and this could go either way. Responses to Zack and Tak actions is typical Town for Dice. He's a valuable towny to have around for gut reads I won't be voting him today. FWIW general meta says if he's scum he'll start getting more hedgy and less beligerent and it should be fairly obvious as time goes on.

FFOS at Jarrema for knowing he might be today's lynch but not giving any reads;

FOS at Pizza for making a considerable push at me that avoids/dismisses discussing content and before attempting to discuss/understand what's going on - ?outside meta/opportunistic. Possibly relevant if he's not solidly clear/is still alive by end game.

Sorry for multi-posting. Really not sure how to address this during catch-ups tbh.