Yeah, I think at this point we are all desperate for anything. The very long wait for eternally reoccuring (and very discussion provoking) game such as civ becomes unbearable at the end. Just how much you can discuss the same pure theories without anything actually happening. If Firaxis showed us super early announcement, teaser video, a bunch of alpha screenshots and a bunch of vague statements and promises about new game's direction, I'd be fine with it coming not in October but like February, and with us not having much more info for many months.
By the way, how comes I've only now realized that the past two civ6 expansions were announced in autumn to be released in February? Maybe it's a new modus operandi in general.
Speculating on the basis of no information is sort of what 99.9% of these Forums is either all about or degenerates into, but it does get old pretty fast . . .
Expansion Packs have never been as predictable as game releases. Civ game releases have all been in September - October, except for Civ II, which was in February.
Civ III's Expansions were released in October and November, 13 months apart.
Civ IV's Expansions were both released in July, 1 year apart
Civ V Expansions were released in June and then 9 months later in the following March.
Civ VI Expansions, as stated, were both released in February, 1 year apart, and then 15 months later the 'Season Pass' New Frontier Pass was released in May (3 years ago, in 2020)
All the previous games from III to V saw a new game released between 23 and 42 months after the last Expansion Pack. Since it has now been 48 months since the last Expansion Pack for Civ VI, I speculate that the next game was originally scheduled for this year or
possibly late last year. Add in NSP and COVID, though, and I would now bet that the original schedule went out the window a couple of years ago.
Sigh. Much as I hate to admit it, if we assume that NSP 'stands in' as an additional 'Expansion Pack', then October - November of this year would have been right on schedule, and any COVID-disruption slipping of the schedule would put release of the next game into next year, which appears now to be the case.
So, probably at least another 6 months of Zero Information producing copious amounts of nebulous imaginings, speculative fiction and personal whinging - in other words, CivFanatics As Usual.