Political polling and the subconscious

[Hygro]

I didn’t want to take the Trump administration thread into too much of a tangent but I had a question about this, and it is one irrespective of any person’s individual politics:

Does or can political polling reflect the true feelings of its respondents? Is there an element beyond consciousness that we are failing to account for?

I’m not sure what to believe, whether we can say with certainty that a poll is accurately reflective of the true feelings of people regardless of how ostensibly well the polling is done.

I think it reflects who they like more and I think it reflects which political memes are resonating but I don’t believe it’s an accurate reflection of what people actually care about deep down with regard to “the issues”

 

[Lexicus]

Explanation for losing Gen Z men, voters under 50k, a large swing in Hispanic men, black men, while holding steadier with women?

"It's the economy, stupid" about sums it up.

 

[Voidwalkin]

"It's the economy, stupid" about sums it up.

I'd buy into that more if the movements weren't so strongly linked to gender.

 

[REDY]

The West was caught in cultural war nonsense, which allowed idiots like Trump to gain support.
Honestly, I don’t know if it was supposed to happen this way. Whether it’s subversion, the agenda of internal actors, or just an accident.
The economy has been sidelined either way; there is no rational actor now.
It's clear that Trump will not act murderously like the Russians, but he will help them indirectly.

 

[Lexicus]

It's clear that Trump will not act murderously like the Russians

Is it?

 

[Kyriakos]

I don't think anyone can argue that anything in the culture war fundamentally changed between 2020 and 2024 that explains the differing outcome of those two elections. In fact, the only real culture war difference between these two years is that the Democrats got a lot more right-wing on various culture war issues in 2024 compared to 2020. I don't think this supports the thesis that Trump won the 2024 election on the strength of culture war issues.

The glaring difference is the pandemic. Perhaps Trump would have won in 2020 without it - and now we would be post-Trump.

As for the OP question, within the (often very restrictive, as in the case of the US) limits, people choose who they prefer. When both parties are by and large seen as trash (which I think is the prevalent view there), given some more conditions you can indeed see candidates who profess to be about changing the system, become very popular.

 

[Zardnaar]

The glaring difference is the pandemic. Perhaps Trump would have won in 2020 without it - and now we would be post-Trump.

As for the OP question, within the (often very restrictive, as in the case of the US) limits, people choose who they prefer. When both parties are by and large seen as trash (which I think is the prevalent view there), given some more conditions you can indeed see candidates who profess to be about changing the system, become very popular.

Problem with change the system types is they're either bad faith or clueless.

 

[Gorbles]

Problem with change the system types is they're either bad faith or clueless.

Anyone could say the say of the "keep the system" types. But it's reductive and unhelpful. But hey, easy shots.

 

[Zardnaar]

Anyone could say the say of the "keep the system" types. But it's reductive and unhelpful. But hey, easy shots.

Status quo usually keeps the system tricking over.

I'm talking about basic functionality. Eg wages get paid, bureaucracy can function.

Good clue is if the populist is attacking government functions in the basic sense not the political types.

 

[Gorbles]

Syatis quo usually keeps the system tricking over.

Until it doesn't. But enjoy not getting ahead of that.

 

[Zardnaar]

Until it doesn't. But enjoy not getting ahead of that.

Even if you change the government you usually want to keep the bureaucracy around.

Otherwise things tend to fall apart.

 

[amadeus]

hey buddy do you have any idea how far off topic you were going there? I’m only going to issue a warning, but if I see it again you’re going to be getting a ticket.