Pre-Thread: ImmacuNESV

Runaway Climate Change and Extreme Weather

Since twenty-ten the average planetary temperature has risen 8.7˚C. Sea levels have risen 14m. Many had predicted such changes in 2010 but most futurologist would have called them pessimists. While many had understood the potential for what was known as ‘Runaway Climate Change’, none could foresee the numerous overlapping factors that would give rise to the phenomenon.

Obviously the single greatest source of climate change was the carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere since the beginning of the industrial revolution. Later increasingly desperate governments and corporations sought energy, any energy for consumption without concern for the long or short-term effects upon climate, the use of the oil sands energy by Canada, the former USA and Russia as well as the use of methane hydrates from the polar ocean floor all being excellent examples thereof.

The rising temperatures not only led to rising sea volumes, but also decreased capacity to passively absorb carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, warming waters being unable to absorb as much of the gas.

Rising temperatures also led to the thawing of the permafrost in Sibera, northern Canada and Alaska, which in turned inverted their function from net carbon sinks to carbon emitters and caused the release of approximately 90 gigatons of methane and 40 gigatons of methane clathrates from tundra areas. These gases had effects up to ten times that of a similar mass of carbon-dioxide and once this process, along with the reduced buffering of the world’s oceans due to increased temperatures and the massive deforestations undertaken by much of the world’s population in the twenty-fifties and sixties desperate for energy began, a very rapid and obviously irreversible trend in accelerated climate change began. This was known as ‘Run-Away Climate Change’ and, together with the energy shortages of the century, was directly responsible for most of the economic and human suffering we have observed.

Rising temperatures ultimately led to an inversion of many of the world’s ocean currents, ultimately leading to the ‘great freeze’ that currently grips the British isles and much of Scandinavia and the extreme weather phenomena including hurricanes, cyclones and frequent tornadoes that continually harass much of the world’s population.

Run-away climate change has sunk innumerable small islands, including the entirety of the Malidves, the majority of the Netherlands and amongst other major cities, London and New Orleans.

topographic-world-map.jpg


Areas in purple are completely flooded and areas in blue suffer from seasoning and/or tidal oceanic flooding.

‘Run-Away Climate Change’ has also led to massive droughts, especially in western North America, north-eastern Brazil, the Mediterranean basin, Iberia, Southern Africa, and Oceana, often due to reduced mountain glacier spring run-off but just as often not. Drought in these areas has also, in turn, led to greatly reduced agricultural productivity and frequent wild-fires brought on by ever-increasingly numerous lightning storms.

High altitude areas retain less ice and as a consequence many delta regions have suffered due to reduced river flow and rising sea levels Indeed one-sixth of the world’s population, in 2100 was dependent upon meltwater from mountain glaciers and these over the course of the last century, have almost completely disappeared as they migrated to safer areas or succumbed to hunger or disease.

For much of the rest of the world, humidity has sky-rocketed, together with the heat, bringing vector-borne diseases to many regions that had never before felt the effects of dengue, malaria or typhoid fever. Rivers across Europe and parts of Asia have swelled from constant increased rainfall and a lot of once arable land has been overtaken by swamp.

Global climate changes has not only affected the map of the earth and the way humans live, it has also affected its flaura and fauna. By twenty-fifty, over 15% of the worlds plants and animals existing in 2010 had gone extinct or were committed to doing so. As man turned increasingly in the twenty-fifties and sixties to wood-based charcoal for energy, the extinctions accelerated as many habitats were burned. By twenty-one hundred extinction rates neared 50%. The massive loss of biodiversity, especially in the world’s oceans has greatly affected the ecosystems with the loss of one animal species leading to the loss of several others dependent upon that first species. Fisheries in particular have been hit hard and coral reefs are all but extinct. Species thought to have gone extinct include all species of gorillas, all species of hippopotamus, all species of tiger, Javan, black, and northern white rhinos, several sea turtle species, Asian elephants, Bactrian camels, Ethiopian wolves, Iberian lynx, axolotls, Philippine eagle, California condor, Chinese alligators, the blue whale, narwhals, Asian elephants, giant pandas, snow leopards, Bornean orangutan, Tasmanian devils, and many, many more.

Ultimately while the rate of acceleration of climate change has fallen dramatically in the last twenty years, presumably as a reflection of humanity’s greatly reduced fossil fuel usage, it does continue to rise and is expected to continue to do so, though at a reduced rate, for the foreseeable future.

more added... so sad...
Northen wolf will cry.
 
How high precisely do you have to be above sea level to remain unsubmerged?
 
i don't know exactly- a lot of this information i am just stealing from climate change websites. I assume a fair bit because i can't imagine all that blue land is within 14m of sea level (though maybe it is- it does seem reasonable that the purple land is within 14 of sealevel however).
 
Population Crash and Food and Water Crisis

Specialists in 2010 had already warned that the earth was unable to sustainably maintain its current population and that nearly one-third of the world’s current population would have to be removed for long-term stability. Of course the ‘green revolution’ and other technologies meant that human-kind had blown through that limit long ago. But that only meant that the increased population was not sustainable. Ultimately run-away population growth and the complications that it brought, especially upon the climate, effectively greatly reduced the carrying capacity of the earth in the long term . And so it came as no small surprise, despite the massive suffering, when the inevitable occurred.

Amongst the factors that contributed to the population crash, one of the first was the availability of water. Many regions were over-pumping from their water-tables as early as the 1990s. Indeed by twenty-ten, there were 130 million people in China and 175 million in India that were being fed grain irrigated with water from aquifers pumped out faster than they were being replaced and while falling water levels could be compensated for by drilling deeper, this was a short-term solution at best. Indeed loss of aquifers due to overuse led to complete shutdown of wheat production in Saudri Arabia by 2012, though at least they had nice green golf courses, and parts of northern China and California come up dry by the twenty-teens. Depletion of the Ogallala aquifier in the early twenty-twenties quickly turned ‘America’s Breadbasket’ back into the dust-bowl of the 1930s with similar economic and humanitarian effects. Increasing, access to fresh water meant food security; and innumerable small border conflicts over access to fresh water occurred both between nations and within them as populations grew increasingly desperate.

The food crisis was already beginning to be felt by twenty-ten. The food crisis of twenty-eleven and the rise in commodity prices brought an early view of what would soon grip the world but it was only the beginning. For too many decades monocultures of wheat, rice, and corn provided high yield and resistance to chemically-derived herbicides and pesticides weeds did not have. They also left them wide open to pathogens. The UG99 fungus that by twenty-ten had already struck at Africa and Asia, greatly reducing wheat production there and in some nations completely stopping it, by twenty-fifteen could be found throughout the world. Hundreds of millions starved and rising food prices drove over 100 million into extreme poverty every year.

news_ug99.jpg


In the twenty-teens wheat stem rust destroyed countless wheat crops across the globe.

It was the beginning of the end for many of the agricultural megacorporations and ‘species diversity’ became the buzzword amongst farmers though this meant less overall productivity.

As the effects on energy shortages and climate change were felt more and more upon agricultural production, the price of food, especially distant from its production, continued to soar. Government welfare systems failed, often catastrophically, and many districts, provinces, and states went bankrupt attempting to deal with the problem. Ultimately nothing could be done and when a second fungal pathogen swept through rice crops in twenty thirty eight over one third of the world’s population succumbed to hunger or disease.

With energy shortage and severe economic contraction the average human felt a massive drop in their living standards. The lucky ones were able to retreat to some homestead and cultivate their own food but the majority could not and quickly succumbed.

The years from 1940 to the present saw a reversion in the way people lived and many returned to some lifestyle half like those of medieval peasants and half like self-sufficient small-scale communists. By 2180 the worlds population had reached it new low point (somewhere around 750 million) and since that time has climbed, every so slowly, to the current approximated population of 780 million.
 
Well, most of this stuff is predicted to happen to some degree or another. I am, in many cases, taking nearly the worst case scenerio and expanding upon it but so far no major wars or disasters have struck... this is just the stuff that we KNOW will happen... to some degree or another...

... and it is sad.
 
Topographical map, Earth, 2100,

Spoiler :
dzarlz.jpg
 
Greatly exaggerated mind you. There is vertical farming, in vitro meat, precision agriculture, GM crops, synthetic genomics yadda yadda. And with all these catastrophes where are the energy self-sufficient domed cities, where weather and agriculture can easily be controlled. I don't know, this all seems too much. Like a secret organization is going round the world, giving critical scientists cerebral aneurysms and purposely thwarting any kind of recovery efforts.
 
I think you overestimate the funds available to mankind and their capacity to initiate drastic ideological redirection within their governments. Not to offend you Kozmos but i get the feeling that you are proposing a lot of solutions based onthe 'conception' of lot of interesting technology but not the business and financial aspects thereof. These technologies are not free and they require a massive investment in funds that our current debt-ridden population and governments are simply not capable of. I work as a research scientist in a very prestigious Ivy League university and i can assure you that we're not all 'just around the corner' from world-changing technologies. And even if we were, government funding is not always adequate to put these solutions you suggest in place on a scale that would be productive. Please don't take these criticisms personally- i merely mean to argue why i think the scenario i outline is more likely to occur (given non-controllable variables like climate change) then the you propose involving domed cities, etc where 'technology', like some super-human hero, races in to save the day.

Again, i think ultimately, its a situation of too little too late. Most of the damage is already done and if we had a solution, we would need to be implementing it already.
 
Always up for another ImmacuNES. :D
 
Yet each and everyone is in its starting steps by now and many show great promise even with current off-the-shelf technologies. Debt-ridden governments give rise to transnationals, which with their wealth begin to surpass smaller countries, soon starting to offer them flag-of-convenience deals, where they come in, handle the debt and essentially take over. There is profit to be made in these world changing technologies, more so by corporations than by governments. The only uncontrollable aspect is the one meter rise of sea-level. Horrible, but not entirely devastating. With breeder reactors you could run for 8000 years without having to resort to thorium. I think a singularity is far more likely before any kind of disaster on a global level, sans nuclear war or an unforeseeable ice age. I would imagine there would be more of social issue with those who have access to gerontological treatments and those who don't.
 
Breeder plants do not create net fuel.

I agree about the transnational corps.


EDIT: Ultimately i think you'll probably just have to suspend disbelief as you have much more faith in the future of technology than what i illustrate here. Sorry Kozmos i can't make the world work for you. I hope you'll play none-the-less and just accept that technology isn't quite what you expect it to be in this NES. For everyone else, i hope that the NES's history makes SOME sense though i continue to want to hear your thoughts on how it can be adequately fleshed out.
 
(I think he's just suggesting that uranium depletion may not happen for a very, very long time. But then again with our current rate of population growth and electrical waste...

Ah well, I am not knowledgeable enough on nuclear physics and engineering anyways.)
 
But they create more fissile material than they consume. Enough to keep the world (or at least parts of it, like India, Australia and so on) for a long time. Anyway the way I see it, the scenario rests on an overwhelming shortage of energy and problems derived from it. While things should go bad, there are several regions that would do quite well despite initial difficulties.
 
Definitely interested. Also, Kozmos, I have to agree with Immaculate. Thorium has a huge buzz about it currently, but it is a technology in the concept phase, with (as far as I am aware) not a single pilot plant running today. Reading Immaculate's description, this world falls into depression in the next six months(!), preventing further R&D and investment.

Also, I don't believe your 'Transnational' argument either. There's no precedent, and there's no reason to believe that companies run by humans are any more prescient that humans themselves. Companies are controlled by stockholders, and stockholders are terrified of the unknown. If a global depression hit, I think companies would contract, not expand, particularly if governments enact the predictable step of protectionist tariffs.

Anyway, I'm not trying to argue or make personal attacks; please don't take it that way. I'm just less optimistic that the technology you've mentioned can overcome the cultural and institutional obstacles in a "worst case" scenario like this.

Also, I'm in. Do we choose our territory/staring faction, or are those assigned?
 
Also, I'm in. Do we choose our territory/staring faction, or are those assigned?

Hbar- do you have time to visit #NES? I would love to bounce some ideas off your impressive brain.

http://nes-chat.tk/

Also, i'm going to let the players write the political history of the NES over the next 90 years in a sort of team-based exercise (with each player obviously focusing on the nation/faction they want to develop). That will probably be soon as i am getting close to finishing the non-political, non-war and all that end of the intro statement.
 
You pick where you want me immaculate. Msn if you need idea bouncing as well.
 
You can always ask me too, if you want that is :p
 
and me. not that my input is all that valuable, compared to that of more knowledgeable others.
 
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