Questions for our European members

[Phantom Lord]

I have a personal idea of Europe's direction, influenced by personal impressions of course.

Concerning "Core Europe", it will develop around France and Germany with Spain and Italy being the strongest influences as long as Great Britain stays out as it does. Skandinavia and the smaller countries will play an important role though, because they're more progressive in many ways.

But to me the real future involves Russia. Russian / German relations once (in the 19th century) were brillant and I think they will be again. Europe has the technology, Russia has the space and the ressources.

Our language will be english anyway (because it's so simple), the parliament will not represent the people but rather try to integrate political systems in the near future, the Euro will stabilize further and a lot of trading with Asia and Middle East will take place. China and India will probably raise to unknown heights sooner or later, so I see four power blocks in the future.

 

[HAND]

In 15-20 years time Europe will probably have a President, joint military command, aswell as the european single currency.
If Great Britain joins too then there will be 2 nuclear power states (the other being France) in this future Europe.

Its the birth of a Super-Power in other words.

 

[Ossric]

about the Franco-German thing: one of the initial important incentives to create a form of European cooperation (which led to the current EU) was to make France & Germany so closely intertwined economically that their would never be a Franco-German war again.

France & Germany always take a leading rol in the whole EU project, simply because any project needs leaders to work sufficiently. The idea of having 15+ equal partners discussing new rules & regulations with each having it's own ideas, would not result in anything significant.

The idea of a Franco-German seperation of the EU is not realistic now or at any time in the future. A possibility is an EU with 2 "speeds". A number of nations that integrate further & deeper, while others take a more slowly integration. France, Germany, The Benelux & Italy (the founding members) favor deeper integration but have to wait for the other members to make it happen. Therefore an EU with 2 speeds would offer a solution..

 

[Phantom Lord]

Originally posted by Ossric
Therefore an EU with 2 speeds would offer a solution..

I think it already does, some states have the Euro, some don't. You could put it simply that way: The Euro countries drive on the faster lane, but in the long run, full integration will happen.

 

[Grille]

Originally posted by Phantom Lord
I think it already does, some states have the Euro, some don't. You could put it simply that way: The Euro countries drive on the faster lane, but in the long run, full integration will happen.

About the Euro: Some EU members (and just for the record: some non-members) w/o the Euro do indeed link their own currency very, very close to the Euro... (just take a look at some currency's exchange rate).
For example, if the Danish Crown was replaced by the Euro, there shouldn't really change anything.

 

[willemvanoranje]

well, than there's no reasonable reason why they should keep the euro, except for being conservative.

 

[Kinniken]

Originally posted by Phantom Lord
I think it already does, some states have the Euro, some don't. You could put it simply that way: The Euro countries drive on the faster lane, but in the long run, full integration will happen.

Except that 12 of 15 EU countries have the Euro already, and the new members all say they aim to join ASAP.
An "innor core", which will probably appear, especialy if the Constitution fails, will be a lot more reduced, possibly to the orginal six. It is rather doubtful that a country like Greece (which is in the Euro) would be part of it, for exemple. Portugal, Ireland and Finland, while being geographicaly on the periphery, might possibly be part of it. So might Austria. Spain, I strongly doubt it, at least under Aznar.

 

[Archer 007]

Originally posted by Grille


About the Euro: Some EU members (and just for the record: some non-members) w/o the Euro do indeed link their own currency very, very close to the Euro... (just take a look at some currency's exchange rate).
For example, if the Danish Crown was replaced by the Euro, there shouldn't really change anything.

Really? Ive never noticed this. Which other nations follow this practice?

 

[willemvanoranje]

I dount GB is doing it. What about Sweden?

Either way, there's no doubt the Danish and Swedish currencies are heavily influenced by the euro.

 

[Dr. Dr. Doktor]

The Danish national bank follows a policy of a strong Krone. In fact, the Danish krone was once tied to the Deutche Mark, now it is more or less tied to the Euro. Hence consumer goods are really cheap, and getting cheaper. Booze has just been cut in price (hooray)
The Swedes, however, are notorious for their constant devaluations. In fact should the swedes have decided to join the Euro (which they did not) they would have no doubt have been forced to undertake some severe austerity measures.
The Norwegians are simply wallowing in 'easy money', probably due to their oil boom. They have to invest for the future, though. In real capital, not just fancy department blocks in Paris or such