Reapportionment

[Gorbles]

I keep pointing out that the strategy you endorse is hopeless, reality keeps showing that it has failed. But you simply refuse to get it.

The "minorities" are not on board with this liberal idpol crap. Which was always been a distraction to not address the economic issues, the class issues. And these people are not buying into propaganda. They're seeing through propaganda and disgusted. Why vote for one set of thieves over another, when the "liberal set" set on top of being thieves loves finger-wagging and lecturing them?

Sure, there are racists among the "deplorables". There are deluded conspiracy theorists. There are nazis, though I doubt any cares what nazism was all about. There are religious fanatics who would teach the earth was created 400 years ago and criminalize even sex. But there are many more other people. Regular people. People who just want some stability and don't see that coming for them from the "liberals" who have been all about disruption without caring to explain how people fit in changes and what they gain from them. Often because the disruption works against these "deplorables" and the liberal idea is that they should go die far away and without too much fuss. Unemployed? Retrain to be a coder! No health care? Buy insurance! And so on...

@Birdjaguar Obama picked up from Bush to bail out wall street. Refused to protect the victims of fraudulently resold mortgages thrown into the street. Let hedge finds but those defaulted mortgages for cents on the dollar and set up REITs to exploit tenants. Protecting the FIRE sector was his top priority. income distribution grew even more unequal. Notice the wealth share of the bottom 50% in the charts here. It was tiny in 2008, at 1,8%. Obama let it slide to hit 0,3%, and ended his presidency with 1,2%. That looks like peanuts, but for the lower 50% of the population involved it meant living with their wealth halved, living under permanent threat of cruising debt. It was a huge transfer of wreath against the bottom 50% of the population! Of course they were pissed off in 2016.

Then notice that in the last 4 years, despite all the tax breaks for the wealthy, that share of wealth held by the bottom 50% actually grew back to 1,8%. Pre-covid of course. Don't act surprised then that some many "deplorables" stuck to Trump. Again, it looks like peanuts in the grand scheme, but it's a 50% increase in the "financial security" of these people.

I pity this world where people settle for so little. But can perfectly understand why they would rather vote for Trump over Obama's VP.

I can understand why people vote Trump as well. But you're the one arguing against "brainwashing" when that is a literal thing that causes people to vote against their interests. Call it slow-burn indoctrination, hyper-partisan(isation?). Call it whatever word makes sense to you. But "they're not indoctrinated, they're just angry" is a terrible argument that completely ignores the state of being both (as has been repeatedly pointed out).

But hey, I understand your issues with liberals! It sounds like progressive leftism is the way forwards!

. . . oh. You see a lot of cultural progressivism as "liberal idpol crap". How convenient!

 

[Estebonrober]

This is going to be a major topic in the next two years. Regardless how the court cases turn out in the Presidential race, the Republicans will be picking up between nine and fourteen seats in the House. The current leans have it eleven seats with two extremely close races remaining. Giving both of those to Nancy for Christmas, the next Congress will be 224 D - 211 R, a paper-thin thirteen vote margin. Reapportionment could wipe that out, without even starting the gerrymandering.

Below is a two part article on the way the various states look to be settling out. Their final tally is -6 D, +6 R, which would leave Democrats with a single vote majority.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/a...ld_mean_for_house_control_in_2023_144644.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/a...awn_house_maps_could_mean_in_2023_144651.html

J

So if the GOP pulls off this coup of minority tyranny do you feel this is how a representative republic should work? How does minority rule for extended periods of time work out elsewhere around the world? I know you do not care about justice. I'm jsut curious do you care about stability of your nation?

 

[Birdjaguar]

@Birdjaguar Obama picked up from Bush to bail out wall street. Refused to protect the victims of fraudulently resold mortgages thrown into the street. Let hedge finds but those defaulted mortgages for cents on the dollar and set up REITs to exploit tenants. Protecting the FIRE sector was his top priority. income distribution grew even more unequal. Notice the wealth share of the bottom 50% in the charts here. It was tiny in 2008, at 1,8%. Obama let it slide to hit 0,3%, and ended his presidency with 1,2%. That looks like peanuts, but for the lower 50% of the population involved it meant living with their wealth halved, living under permanent threat of cruising debt. It was a huge transfer of wreath against the bottom 50% of the population! Of course they were pissed off in 2016.

Then notice that in the last 4 years, despite all the tax breaks for the wealthy, that share of wealth held by the bottom 50% actually grew back to 1,8%. Pre-covid of course. Don't act surprised then that some many "deplorables" stuck to Trump. Again, it looks like peanuts in the grand scheme, but it's a 50% increase in the "financial security" of these people.

I pity this world where people settle for so little. But can perfectly understand why they would rather vote for Trump over Obama's VP.

Yes Bush did leave Obama a huge mess. there are at least two factors at work here though. i suspect that most of the lost wealth of the bottom 50% was because of the loss of house value or the house itself and maybe some more because they had to spend savings during the recession Bush caused. The bank bailout was the TARP program passed under Bush at the end of 2008, not Obama. This bailout let the worst offenders for the recession get off scott free.

Then in 2009 Obama passed the American reinvestment and recovery act, to counter the Bush recession. The links explain both programs pretty clearly.

The wealth lost by the bottom 50% was from the housing crash and not from anything Obama did. Did Obama bill help the rich? Probably. Did it also help end the recession and begin the longest bull market in US history? Yes.

In your reckoning of what has happened in the past four years, the wealth of the top 10% has far out striped the wealth growth anywhere else since 2006. Obama had a deep recession to deal with and stimulated the economy. Trump had a booming economy and just gave money to the richest.

 

[Birdjaguar]

So if the GOP pulls off this coup of minority tyranny do you feel this is how a representative republic should work? How does minority rule for extended periods of time work out elsewhere around the world? I know you do not care about justice. I'm jsut curious do you care about stability of your nation?

IIRC Syrian Alawites are an example of minority rule.

 

[Zardnaar]

How incompetent are the Democrats that their opponents are winning seats at a time like this?

Like, what's even going on south of the border.. I heard Obama say that the American voters no longer care about policies and instead rely on their emotions (or whatever he said). I am not looking forward to the next.. eh.. couple decades of insanity.

Apparently it's because of several things.

1. The poor PoC victims thing comes across as condescension. Trump attracted them. Alot own small business and aren't that hard up.

2. Radical left wing stuff like defund the police. Obviously reforms needed but defund cones across as abolish.

3. BLM the riots and protests. Counter productive. See GoP winning in 60s with civil rights marches.

4. Mixed messaging on Covid. It's ok to gather enmasse to protest BLM but you're an idiot for your rallies.

5. Loud mouthed socialists. Scares the punters in places like Florida.

You need power to help minoritys. But push that angle to hard you lose the majority in places that matter.

 

[onejayhawk]

I can understand why people vote Trump as well. But you're the one arguing against "brainwashing" when that is a literal thing that causes people to vote against their interests. Call it slow-burn indoctrination, hyper-partisan(isation?). Call it whatever word makes sense to you. But "they're not indoctrinated, they're just angry" is a terrible argument that completely ignores the state of being both (as has been repeatedly pointed out).

But hey, I understand your issues with liberals! It sounds like progressive leftism is the way forwards! . . . oh. You see a lot of cultural progressivism as "liberal idpol crap". How convenient!

They are not voting against their interests. We can see the proof in this thread. People are literally migrating toward Republican run states and away from Democratic run states. That is demonstrated commitment.

Let's not forget why either - because he's black.

In your mind perhaps. You know what happens when you assume too much, right?

Alot of conservatives had their brains broken by a black guy holding power over them, unfortunately their brains will never recover hence trump

Same comment, second chorus.

The Tea Party has deep roots that go way back before 2010. You are just too young to know about it and too far from US culture to see them. Obama being black brought a lot of things to the surface that had been simmering for a long while. What was this huge transfer of wealth under Obama?

This is definitely true. Trump did not create a base. He nurtured something that was already there.

So if the GOP pulls off this coup of minority tyranny do you feel this is how a representative republic should work? How does minority rule for extended periods of time work out elsewhere around the world? I know you do not care about justice. I'm jsut curious do you care about stability of your nation?

The GOP is not trying to pull off anything. We the people did it.

This is a function of people voting with their feet. They are literally leaving Democrat states to move to Republican states, which is democracy in it's most basic form. Every ten years we make adjustments to where the Representatives originate, based on the census ordered by the Constitution. Things co not get any more solidly grounded.

J

 

[warpus]

If you haven't seen proof that many Republicans hate Obama because he's black, then you haven't been paying attention or your head is willfully in the sand. Yes, they hate him for other reasons too, but that's a biggie.

 

[FriendlyFire]

They're not brainwashed, they're pissed. Most of them, I believe. That attitude you heard and repeat that "they're brainwashed" is precisely one of the things they're pissed at. "Liberals" spent their last 4 years sneering at them, despising them. When you declare someone to be your enemy, expect enmity... That, done as part of group dynamics, very much is politics.
Hillary threw the opening salvos and helped define the camps more than Trump did..

Hilarious.
Iam sure most Republicans are decent people, but the word brainwashed is correct, decades of misinformation and scapegoating.

Poll: Majority of Republicans still doubt Obama's citizenship
The poll found that 72 percent of registered Republican voters hold doubts about the president's citizenship.

https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-bo...ll-majority-of-republicans-still-doubt-obamas

 

[Estebonrober]

The GOP is not trying to pull off anything. We the people did it.

This is a function of people voting with their feet. They are literally leaving Democrat states to move to Republican states, which is democracy in it's most basic form. Every ten years we make adjustments to where the Representatives originate, based on the census ordered by the Constitution. Things co not get any more solidly grounded.

J

If the two Georgia seats go to the Democrats, the Senate will be split 50-50, but the Democratic half will represent 41,549,808 more people than the Republican half. The House is worse. . .



I mean that's good representation though right? Except the longer this continues the longer grievances in all these areas are not addressed the more the pressure builds. Thus your minority rule implodes in your hands and eventually something has to give. . .

Also when they vote with their feet to leave overcrowded over priced states they jsut turn the next states slowly blue. See Georgia, Virginia, Texas, Nevada. The only exception is Florida and it has special considerations which are given way too much weight by the pundit class. Cuban ex pats and their kids matter in Florida but no where else.

 

[Gorbles]

They are not voting against their interests. We can see the proof in this thread. People are literally migrating toward Republican run states and away from Democratic run states. That is demonstrated commitment.

They are voting against their own interests.

But if that's the game of correlation you want to play, then at the game time people are literally migrating away from a Republican-lead federal government and towards a Democratic one

 

[Zardnaar]

They are voting against their own interests.

But if that's the game of correlation you want to play, then at the game time people are literally migrating away from a Republican-lead federal government and towards a Democratic one

Yep internal migration is making more states blue.

Once one if those big states reliably flips or the mid west is around the point you can start pushing harder for more progressive stuff.

Risk really is GoP bounces back in 2024 but incumbency advantage for Biden or perhaps Harris if these his appointed successor.

Either way the GoP will likely have to moderate or be left irrelevant by 2032 or so.

Trumpism without the Trump 2024 is the biggest potential hiccup I can see.

 

[caketastydelish]

I think Trump said he will run again in 2024 if they (from his point of view) illegally take him out of office since he won the election.

He would be 78. I'm not sure how many people would vote for a 78-year-old outside of his diehard fans. Incumbent Presidents also have the advantage, as they get re-elected the vast majority of the time, and he blew it. Next time he won't have that advantage, either.

 

[Zardnaar]

I think Trump said he will run again in 2024 if they (from his point of view) illegally take him out of office since he won the election.

He would be 78. I'm not sure how many people would vote for a 78-year-old outside of his diehard fans. Incumbent Presidents also have the advantage, as they get re-elected the vast majority of the time, and he blew it. Next time he won't have that advantage, either.

He would likely be a kingmaker if he doesn't want to do it himself.

He'll have less media attention, no incumbency advantage and if it's not him they don't get his persona advantage.

 

[caketastydelish]

I'm in Texas. By my calculation by the research I conduct, Trump won my state my almost 10 points in 2016, but this time by less than 6.

I'm not sure how much of that has to do with Trump voters who switched (or decided not to vote at all), or how much of it has to do with the changing demographics of the state. If the latter, then things are not looking for the GOP moving forward. If the demographic changes alone continue to chip away an average of 2-3% each general election, then by 2028 the state is probably evenly matched and after that, it would outright be a democratic favorite. Losing Texas would be absolutely devastating for the GOP at the federal level. We have more electoral votes than any other state outside of California.

 

[Zardnaar]

I'm in Texas. By my calculation by the research I conduct, Trump won my state my almost 10 points in 2016, but this time by less than 6.

I'm not sure how much of that has to do with Trump voters who switched (or decided not to vote at all), or how much of it has to do with the changing demographics of the state. If the latter, then things are not looking for the GOP moving forward. If the demographic changes alone continue to chip away an average of 2-3% each general election, then by 2028 the state is probably evenly matched and after that, it would outright be a democratic favorite. Losing Texas would be absolutely devastating for the GOP at the federal level. We have more electoral votes than any other state outside of California.

I know, I think Texas is projected to go blue around 2032.

Well purple anyway.

My main concern would be Biden one term, competent GoP president wins 2024 and does the usual two terms and due to shenigans licks out the Dems.

They can't gerrymander any worse than they have so suppressing the vote is about all they can do.

 

[caketastydelish]

They are already suppressing the vote as much as they can in addition to the maximum gerrymandering they have implemented.

 

[onejayhawk]

If the two Georgia seats go to the Democrats, the Senate will be split 50-50, but the Democratic half will represent 41,549,808 more people than the Republican half. The House is worse. . .

The House is not worse. It's actually much closer to population distribution. The House has a number of Representatives defined by law, specifically the Permanent Apportionment Act of 1929. Each state gets one Representative and the balance is equally divided by population. Every ten years, the nation does a formal census, the reapportions the House according to the new demographics.
https://history.house.gov/Historical-Highlights/1901-1950/The-Permanent-Apportionment-Act-of-1929/

What you are possibly missing is that both of the House and Senate are by design. The delegates to the Constitutional Convention did not want a true democracy. They wanted recognize populations concentrations as important, but not as controlling. Hence, each state was allotted two Senators to decentralize authority. This is written into the Constitution.

I mean that's good representation though right? Except the longer this continues the longer grievances in all these areas are not addressed the more the pressure builds. Thus your minority rule implodes in your hands and eventually something has to give. . .Also when they vote with their feet to leave overcrowded over priced states they jsut turn the next states slowly blue. See Georgia, Virginia, Texas, Nevada. The only exception is Florida and it has special considerations which are given way too much weight by the pundit class. Cuban ex pats and their kids matter in Florida but no where else.

New Yorkers have been moving to Florida in large numbers, but the state is getting more red rather than more blue. Texas is already majority of minorities, indeed Hispanics exceed non-Hispanic whites. However, Texas remains Republican because race does not dictate politics. Those who claim Texas will turn blue rarely understand this.

They are voting against their own interests. But if that's the game of correlation you want to play, then at the game time people are literally migrating away from a Republican-lead federal government and towards a Democratic one

They are only voting against their own interests if you equate Republican with evil.

I know, I think Texas is projected to go blue around 2032.

By whom?

Well purple anyway.

For some definitions of purple, it already is.

My main concern would be Biden one term, competent GoP president wins 2024 and does the usual two terms and due to shenigans licks out the Dems. They can't gerrymander any worse than they have so suppressing the vote is about all they can do.

Trump was competent. That's not rare with Republicans. Sommer doesn't like the idea, but I think Cruz in 2024, mostly because he is smartest, but also the most competent.

 

[warpus]

What is Trump competent at, ignoring a pandemic and making sure that as many people get infected as possible? Scheduling a news conference by a dildo shop? Not understanding geopolitics or politics at all? Throwing tantrums? Lying? Being a sexist pig? Being a racist douchebag? Being unable to read strategic briefs that land on his desk? Ignoring the intelligence community completely and listening to conspiracy theorists instead? Losing billions of dollars and lying about it? Not paying contractors? Trying to lie and cheat his way through everything?

So yeah, he's competent at some things alright, but none of those things really translate to somebody you'd want in public office or even running a company or anything really.

The guy's a dunce, a liar, and a cheat. I would not hire him to manage a team of 4 to break their way out of a wet cardboard box. If Trump is competent then my 6 year old niece is a friggin genius, she figured out how to wipe her butt.

 

[onejayhawk]

What is Trump competent at,

The job of running the country.

ignoring a pandemic and making sure that as many people get infected as possible? Scheduling a news conference by a dildo shop? Not understanding geopolitics or politics at all? Throwing tantrums? Lying? Being a sexist pig? Being a racist douchebag? Being unable to read strategic briefs that land on his desk? Ignoring the intelligence community completely and listening to conspiracy theorists instead? Losing billions of dollars and lying about it? Not paying contractors? Trying to lie and cheat his way through everything? So yeah, he's competent at some things alright, but none of those things really translate to somebody you'd want in public office or even running a company or anything really. The guy's a dunce, a liar, and a cheat. I would not hire him to manage a team of 4 to break their way out of a wet cardboard box. If Trump is competent then my 6 year old niece is a friggin genius, she figured out how to wipe her butt.

Getting large numbers infected would be Mark Cuomo, Phil Murphy, Charlie Baker among others. The Trump administration had excellent foreign policy and has the treaties to show for it. He's competent about doing the job he was elected to do. The substance is good, but you dislike the superficial side.

I am putting a wiki link in OP for those like Estebonrober who are unfamiliar.

Possibly not relevant but worth noting, the apportionment can be done two ways--counting heads, or counting legal heads. UVa did an article about the impact of excluding illegal immigrants.
https://centerforpolitics.org/cryst...grants-from-the-2020-u-s-house-apportionment/

J

 

[Angst]

Possibly not relevant but worth noting, the apportionment can be done two ways--counting heads, or counting legal heads. UVa did an article about the impact of excluding illegal immigrants.
https://centerforpolitics.org/cryst...grants-from-the-2020-u-s-house-apportionment/

J

I like this article, it keeps guard against the people that arrived in pods en masse. We have to stop the practice of people arriving in pods..