Red Dwarf Mafia: The Smeggening [Game Thread - Concluded]

[choxorn]

So, I was scanned last night. Someone should probably know what exactly to do with that information. I can think of this: if the scanner claims either in the thread or to someone he or she trusts, and we make public the fact that someone claimed, and no one challenges that, then we'll have a confirmed scanner. If multiple scanners claim, the things will be more interesting.

I can also confirm another non-lethal ability if they visit me tonight. That is, if I survive the night.

How do you know someone scanned you? Did they tell you? Do you have an ability that lets you know?

If there's anyone village agrees is almost definitely town, I can claim to them by PM. If not, I will do so to Zack or Murska.

I think you should claim to Zack.

 

[Murska]

I'd prefer he claim to me. But that's just because I trust myself more than Zack.

 

[Zack]

If there's anyone village agrees is almost definitely town, I can claim to them by PM. If not, I will do so to Zack or Murska.

Why Murska?

 

[Cuthillius]

Why Murska?

I think he's town, he's reasonable, and a darn good player.

 

[Cuthillius]

For that matter, why should I claim to you instead of him, Zack?

 

[Zack]

I'm town, I'm reasonable, and a darn good player.

 

[Zack]

Why do you think he's town?

It's an odd choice. Murska's been pretty quiet this game, hasn't rocked the boat.

 

[Zack]

Especially considering the last person who claimed to Murska was promptly lynched.

 

[Cuthillius]

Why do you think he's town?

It's an odd choice. Murska's been pretty quiet this game, hasn't rocked the boat.

He seems like Murska typically seems, but less wolfish then I've seen him before, and a bit quieter.

Besides, is there anyone besides yourself you trust as town? Spaceman? Choxorn?

 

[Cuthillius]

You and Mursk seem to me to be the only ones that are almost definitely not scum.

 

[Zack]

He seems like Murska typically seems, but less wolfish then I've seen him before, and a bit quieter.

Besides, is there anyone besides yourself you trust as town? Spaceman? Choxorn?

Claiming to choxorn is fine with me.

You and Mursk seem to me to be the only ones that are almost definitely not scum.

Why?

 

[choxorn]

I am also okay with Cuthilius claiming to me.

 

[Cuthillius]

Claiming to choxorn is fine with me.


Why?

Okay then, why do you trust choxorn?

Look, there are four possibilities.

We could both be scum, which is what you're hoping, and you can quickly lynch both of us and town's clinched it.

I could be a townie and he's scum, in which case I could have a scry and be hoping to at least take one down with me if I get lynched. But then why wouldn't I just say that at this point?

I could be scum and he's town, in which case I'm trying to incriminate a townie before I die.

We could both be town, and I just believe he is town, for not a whole lot of reason, but more so than other people.

If he's scum, this post makes no sense. It's suicide.

I'd prefer he claim to me. But that's just because I trust myself more than Zack.

 

[Winston Hughes]

Winston specifically called out Sprig and Luizeu for low activity. I already pointed out that it's interesting he only mentioned those two by name in his post, as there were several other people who were equally quiet at the time.

As I said at the time, I picked out those two in particular because they were not only quiet, but I'd also got red marks against them for the little they had said. I could have mentioned all of the quieter people, but to do so without analysis (and, as you saw, the analysis wasn't something I could just rush out) would just have diminished the effect, making it look as if I suspected them all equally.

Afterwards, Luizeu started posting more ("how do you feel about Luiz now, Winston?"), which makes the whole thing feel like Winston was trying to push his partner to post more so that when Winston made the later post calling out all the low-posters, hopefully Luizeu wouldn't be there.

Publicly pushing a teammate to post more? I'm sure there are people out there who'd do something as pointlessly risky as that, but do you really think I'm one of them?

Notice how there is no discernible ordering system at work here, and Luizeu is listed last, almost as an afterthought.

All of my analyses were done in ascending order of postcount. I explained already why I started with the low posters. I went through them in order (rather than starting with the people I found most scummy on the initial readthrough) so as to look on the evidence with as fresh eyes as possible, and hopefully avoid getting caught in any kind of confirmation bias trap (ref. my tunnelling an innocent GH in a recent defeat at the org). The only reason Luizeu was last on that second batch is because he was the highest poster with <10 posts at that point. (I'm slightly sad - in both senses of the word - that I have to point out the joke I made following that batch, which was my own tenth post).

This feels pretty weak, like a distancing tactic rather than genuine suspicion. He doesn't actually articulate whether or not this makes Winston looks bad. If anything, it seems like Luiz is not accusing Winston so much as defending himself (you're a hypocrite so your argument is invalid vs. you're a hypocrite and that makes you suspicious).

You're not giving me nearly enough credit here. If you ask me, the tactic you're imagining sounds downright idiotic, and not something I'd even consider as scum. It's just basic psychology. This kind of thing doesn't tend to put a distance between you in readers' minds - it's much more likely to make a connection. What your argument boils down to is me risking association with a scumbuddy for the sake of giving myself a wifom defence against there being a connection between us. That's a terrible trade.

 

[Winston Hughes]

There's some people I want to reread with fresh eyes in light of subsequent developments, but right now my instincts say to lynch Sprig. Granted, it would be a huge slice of luck if I managed to pick out two scum based on so little info on the first attempt, but it's not like he's since given anything to dilute my initial judgement of him.

 

[Zack]

@ Cuthillius

You said that you think Murska and I are "almost definitely not scum," which is much stronger than anything I've said about trusting choxorn, yet you have still not provided any reasoning as to why you're so certain about that, compared to other players (and no, referencing post #562 by Murksa doesn't count because that was after you said you'd be willing to claim to me or him).

Your "possibilities" in #573 are absurd, especially your assertion that post by Murska "makes no sense" as mafia. You really think it's that far-fetched for a mafioso to want you to claim to them in private, and not someone else? The whole concept of mafia is uninformed majority vs. informed minority, of course the mafia want to control information in a way that magnifies that advantage. It boggles my mind that you would try and twist a private roleclaim (where the person you're claiming to is mafia) as a negative for the mafia.

Frankly, unless you're some ridiculous power role, which I doubt, I'd rather you just claim in the thread so everyone can see it. Same for spaceman and Jarrema. Only reasons not to do so are if you fear being nightkilled for it or you're mafia.

Finally, I find the part where you ask who the town thinks is most trustworthy is weird from a town perspective. It's from the point-of-view of an outsider who's fishing to see who is a town leader or which townies are in the know. If you're town, why not go ahead and claim to someone you trust? Why ask for opinions on who is the most townie? It's bizarre.

Cuthillius

 

[Zack]

All of my analyses were done in ascending order of postcount.

No, they weren't, not fully. landlubber, with 3 posts, is listed in between two people with 5 posts. You could say lubber was listed that far down because of Majiffy, but then why list him in between BL and Luiz?

Plus there's no order I can tell between players with the same number of posts (it sure isn't alphabetical).

 

[Zack]

I think it's kinda funny how much you freaked out about how weak the case against you is, considering the weakness of your case against Sprig.

 

[Cuthillius]

I'm Frank Todhunter, Jack of All Trades. I used a kill on bladescape N2, thinking him a scum town-leader, and scried Jarrema as Talia Garret, vanillager, last night. I have a bane, busdrive, and roleblock left.

As for Murska? Like I said, this is similar how he acts all the time. Normally when scum, he's a bit more outspoken and pushy. In this case, he's reading to me as town and he's posted nothing really that could make me suspect him as scum. Unlike everyone else.

Also, sorry if a wolf or two sneaks into my posts, I usually have to go back and paste in scum, as I'm less used to the term.

 

[Winston Hughes]

No, they weren't, not fully. landlubber, with 3 posts, is listed in between two people with 5 posts. You could say lubber was listed that far down because of Majiffy, but then why list him in between BL and Luiz?

Plus there's no order I can tell between players with the same number of posts (it sure isn't alphabetical).

I just worked my way up the 'Who posted' list you get from clicking on the number of posts in the thread, isolating each player's posts in turn. If any are out of that order, it was entirely unintentional. I also left out some completely irrelevant posts from my analysis, which means the number of posts quoted is not necessarily the same as a player's postcount at the time.