Referendum on Scottish Independence

[Alassius]

Actually I don't think that is in the free speech territory - speaking in such a way as to cause another person to fear injury or harm is a crime.

That's where I think the English law is just a tad too tight!

 

[Flying Pig]

Hardly. Making somebody afraid for their safety has no place in civilised society. In politics, even worse!

 

[Alassius]

The thing with this kind of laws is, you always get false positives and false negatives, at the same time. It's impossible to get everything right. In this case (almost) no words were turned into action, and that means the law is strong enough for me, possibly meaning that it can be slightly weakened.

 

[Pangur Bán]

I note the seamless transition from "some people felt intimidated" to "there was intimidation", as if the one naturally implies the other.

Mail & Telegraph tell their No-voting readers that Nat morlocks are gonna get them & eat their babies (or their pets, since most Nos were too old for babies), said readers start complaining that they fear Nat morlocks, Mail & Telegraph tell their readers their readers fear Nat morlocks and castigate the Nats for their intimidation.

The media were the root of almost all actual fear that went around. Both campaigns were well-behaved and disciplined, esp. Yes supporters who had to endure so much largely unreported abuse and assault while constantly being smeared by English newspapers.

 

[Alassius]

Mail & Telegraph tell their No-voting readers that Nat morlocks are gonna get them & eat their babies (or their pets, since most Nos were too old for babies), said readers start complaining that they fear Nat morlocks, Mail & Telegraph tell their readers their readers fear Nat morlocks and castigate the Nats for their intimidation.

55% of the Scottish voters were too old to have babies? Good lord the ageing of population happened a lot faster than I thought!

 

[Borachio]

I don't know so much. If 40 is considered too old for most to start having babies, then it doesn't seem unreasonable to suppose that ~55% of the population are in this state. Especially if we interpret the word "most" as meaning more than 50% of that 55%. Let's go with 75%, say.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Scotland#Age

 

[AljayBoy]

Mail & Telegraph tell their No-voting readers that Nat morlocks are gonna get them & eat their babies (or their pets, since most Nos were too old for babies), said readers start complaining that they fear Nat morlocks, Mail & Telegraph tell their readers their readers fear Nat morlocks and castigate the Nats for their intimidation.

The media were the root of almost all actual fear that went around. Both campaigns were well-behaved and disciplined, esp. Yes supporters who had to endure so much largely unreported abuse and assault while constantly being smeared by English newspapers.

Wow - so the facebook and social media comments were all orchestrated by the Mail and Telegraph? Your post reeks of bitterness, and its the perpetuation of your myths that will be the real legacy of Salmond's vanity project. Good news is he's on his way out.

I'm a proud Scot and proud too of being British, I was overjoyed to wake up this morning with confirmation of a No vote.

 

[Traitorfish]

I'm a proud Scot

I'm not sure that a lot of Yes-voters are felling all that proud to be Scottish today. Pride certainly wasn't the theme running through my Facebook feed this morning. And I dare say that, had the results been to the contrary, you'd be feeling something similar. So it doesn't seem to me that "pride" is an appeal likely to close many rifts.

 

[Winston Hughes]

If he's not careful, the West Lothian question is going to destroy Ed Miliband. The status quo is indefensible, and will only become more so with further devolution of powers to Scotland, but his party seems unwilling to accept any alternative that doesn't preserve the political advantage they gain from it. Blaming the Tories for scuppering the devolution pledge won't wash with Scottish voters, who will blame both sides in Westminster, with Labour having far more to lose as a result. And supporting further devolution of powers to Scotland whilst failing to address the fact that Scottish MPs can still vote on all English matters is going to be a political ball-and-chain south of the border. He needs a very clever, very popular solution, and he needs it soon.

 

[Borachio]

Dearie me! I've just found out this West Lothian question dates back to 1977, and Tam Dalyell (NB /diːˈɛl/ just to confuse you).

That's a very long time to wait for a reply to a question. (I think Tam has died in the meantime.)

Westminster rushed into action with typical aplomb. And by 2011 had decided to set up a Commission to look into the question.

 

[Pangur Bán]

55% of the Scottish voters were too old to have babies? Good lord the ageing of population happened a lot faster than I thought!

This kind of come back is only effective if you read the original comment properly (and much less effective when basic math lets you down )

 

[Alassius]

I don't know so much. If 40 is considered too old for most to start having babies, then it doesn't seem unreasonable to suppose that ~55% of the population are in this state. Especially if we interpret the word "most" as meaning more than 50% of that 55%. Let's go with 75%, say.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Scotland#Age

Again, going with the YouGov poll:

http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.ne...8kmy85paxa/Final_Times_Sun_140917_Website.pdf

16-24: 46% Yes, 46% No
25-39: 51% Yes, 41% No
40-59: 48% Yes, 47% No
60-64: 44% Yes, 51% No
65+: 35% Yes, 61% No

Statistics usually look like that: we say 25-39 year olds are inclined to back Yes, but it's not like all of them are. The numbers are actually quite close.

The weighted numbers of votes from each age group are: 486, 712, 1101, 259, 680.

With a bit of calculation, the number of No voters under 40 is 486*.46+712*.41=515.48, over 40 it's 1101*.47+259*.51+680*.61 = 1064.36.
For Yes, it's 586.68 under 40, 880.44 over 40.

67% of No voters are over 40. 60% of Yes voters are also over 40. It wouldn't be very far off to say "most Yes voters were too old for babies".

This kind of come back is only effective if you read the original comment properly (and much less effective when basic math lets you down )

Half of the 16-24 year olds, and almost half of the 25-39 year olds voted for No. Don't discount them.

 

[Borachio]

There you go. We're none the wiser, then?

 

[Pangur Bán]

Wow - so the facebook and social media comments were all orchestrated by the Mail and Telegraph? Your post reeks of bitterness, and its the perpetuation of your myths that will be the real legacy of Salmond's vanity project. Good news is he's on his way out.

I'm a proud Scot and proud too of being British, I was overjoyed to wake up this morning with confirmation of a No vote.

Social media had much more stuff about Yes voters being intimidated. That stuff didn't get in the British/English newspapers however. Not on message.

The vanity project comment you made is sadly quite typical of many No voters. I will point out to you that the independence movement has a long history, & Salmond is just one of many leaders who have pushed for it. Sturgeon will push for it too & you will probably call it Sturgeon's vanity project. Your newpapers will smear her, likely compare her to Eva Braun or some demonic female leader from history.

You are entitled to feel proud of being Scottish and British. But remember that 'proud' means 'having pride', it should not just be vacuous expression to deflect from the fact that most of the interests fighting Scottish independence weren't Scottish or that No almost certainly won precisely by taking advantage of the lack of pride & self-belief held by a significant number of Scottish people.

 

[Alassius]

Did No voters vote that way because Scottish people lack pride and self-belief, or was it because they did not trust Salmond's economic plan?

 

[Flying Pig]

lack of pride & self-belief held by a significant number of Scottish people.

The 'Yes' campaign made it sound like that, but I don't think pride and self-belief require self-delusion. The 'Yes' campaign failed to win credibility for their optimism - in other words, people simply thought it was ill-founded. Salmond's forecasts for the aftermath of independence were all dependent on a huge amount of luck, which became clear as the referendum neared. Certainly with regard to the EU and the Pound he was making promises which were not necessarily within his power to keep, and those two were absolutely crucial. On oil he used very optimistic estimates, far higher than most other sources. And so on. You can't make disbelieving that about a lack of patriotism.

 

[Winston Hughes]

Dearie me! I've just found out this West Lothian question dates back to 1977, and Tam Dalyell (NB /diːˈɛl/ just to confuse you).

That's a very long time to wait for a reply to a question. (I think Tam has died in the meantime.)

Westminster rushed into action with typical aplomb. And by 2011 had decided to set up a Commission to look into the question.

Aye, we do like to take our time over these things.

(To be fair, it was really just a hypothetical question back in '77. It's only since 1997 that it's been a live constitutional issue, and only since 2010 that we've had a government that weren't direct beneficiaries of the imbalance.)

 

[Pangur Bán]

The 'Yes' campaign made it sound like that, but I don't think pride and self-belief require self-delusion. The 'Yes' campaign failed to win credibility for their optimism - in other words, people simply thought it was ill-founded. Salmond's forecasts for the aftermath of independence were all dependent on a huge amount of luck, which became clear as the referendum neared. Certainly with regard to the EU and the Pound he was making promises which were not necessarily within his power to keep, and those two were absolutely crucial. On oil he used very optimistic estimates, far higher than most other sources. And so on. You can't make disbelieving that about a lack of patriotism.

Yes were probably ahead at the until the last week/10 days of fear bombardment. It was absolutely not about patriotism (didn't say that), the middle group of voters were people who identified as Scottish-not-British in the census but voted No through fear (or if you like to dignify it, pragmatism). What I was saying above was that 'proud Scot' shouldn't be use to kid yourself that you have self-belief about Scotland. If you mean you identify as Scottish & are very happy with that, great but that's not pride. Patriotism & nationalism have for years been used to send little people to their graves in the causes of their rulers. There is a difference between getting emotional at a flag or some pipes and actually thinking a political community is capable of success.

I think everyone will understand these matters better if we separate 1) the rightness / wrongness of a claim from 2) perceived rightness / wrongness of a claim. Democracy is entirely about 2). If you bring up 1), you can have a good discussion, but since the vote is over it's a waste of time and is, in any case, not central to analyzing voting patterns.

 

[Pangur Bán]

Did No voters vote that way because Scottish people lack pride and self-belief, or was it because they did not trust Salmond's economic plan?

Both. And most of them believed that because their information was mediated through a media that was controlled outside of Scotland and almost entirely hostile to independence; not only was it hostile, it was also in large part sneeringly hostile. And indeed, BBC aside, was openly & proudly hostile.

That's not a healthy democracy.

 

[Mouthwash]

Is it worthwhile to note that 71% of 16 to 17 year-olds voted in favor of independence?