Regime change

[caketastydelish]

There has been much talk about American politics lately. What do you think of what's going on? Do you think President Obama will stay in office, or will we have a regime change?

 

[BvBPL]

Polls are really close right now, but I've got my money on Obama. As it happens, the bookmakers also seem to favor him.

 

[Save_Ferris]

"Regime" implies the leader having control over his own Congress.

 

[Ajidica]

That is what I was thinking. Generaly the term 'regime change' is used to refer to events similar to the installation of the Shah, not the results of a democratic election.

 

[JollyRoger]

If Obama loses we may have regime change in the middle of Romney's Presidency without being aware that he is no longer involved in presiding.

 

[caketastydelish]

That is what I was thinking. Generaly the term 'regime change' is used to refer to events similar to the installation of the Shah, not the results of a democratic election.

Spoiler :

It was supposed to be funny.

 

[Save_Ferris]

Spoiler :

It was supposed to be funny.

Sometimes I forget which posters are conservative.

 

[Cutlass]

No matter what happens in November of this year, 9 Supreme Court justices will be the same, and of the 535 members of Congress, some 400+ will be the same. So there's hardly going to be a regime change.

Now will Obama be reelected? I don't know, and I'm concerned that he might not. But the odds are probably somewhat in his favor.

 

[Antilogic]

"Regime" implies the leader having control over his own Congress.

When I saw the title and American politics, I assumed he was talking about the chances of the House or Senate flipping control.

If Obama loses we may have regime change in the middle of Romney's Presidency without being aware that he is no longer involved in presiding.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Obama's got this. Mitt Romney is one of the worst candidates they could have put against Obama. There is a lot of charasmatic conservative candidates the Republicans could have put up against Obama.

But they didn't, so we will win.

 

[BvBPL]

Jill Lepore pretty much called the election for Obama this week.

 

[Tee Kay]

I thought this was about Syria.

There is a lot of charasmatic conservative candidates the Republicans could have put up against Obama.

Name one.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Name one.

I don't have to. I'm making the very broad assumption that somewhere in this continent-spanning country of 300 million people that there is somewhere a muuuuuuuuuuuch better republican politician than Romney.

 

[Tee Kay]

I don't have to. I'm making the very broad assumption that somewhere in this continent-spanning country of 300 million people that there is somewhere a muuuuuuuuuuuch better republican politician than Romney.

I'm going to make a very broad assumption that somewhere on this planet of seven billion people that there is somewhere a benevolent, incorruptible, universally=loved leader who can cure all diseases and usher in world peace.

 

[Ailedhoo]

I'm going to make a very broad assumption that somewhere on this planet of seven billion people that there is somewhere a benevolent, incorruptible, universally=loved leader who can cure all diseases and usher in world peace.

Sid Meier?

 

[BvBPL]

Wil Wright more likely.

 

[Dreadnought]

No matter what happens in November of this year, 9 Supreme Court justices will be the same, and of the 535 members of Congress, some 400+ will be the same. So there's hardly going to be a regime change.

Now will Obama be reelected? I don't know, and I'm concerned that he might not. But the odds are probably somewhat in his favor.

I heard that as many as 3 Justices may retire in the next term.

That being said, here is my prediction. I apologize for not providing links, I'm at work and can't dabble in this for too long.

I think there's a significant chance that Obama is unseated in November. The economic numbers today were pretty dismal. Romney has been catching up in polls (even winning in some: see my sig). Most disconcerting of all: polling in Iowa (one of the two states that'd put Romney over 270) shows Romney either in a tie or beating Obama (those results honestly surprised me; perhaps we need more data before drawing a significant conclusion). The GOP is also making strides in Wisconsin and Michigan. Midterm elections in Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, New Hampshire and Virginia went to the GOP, perhaps signifying a significant trend in those areas.

Obama has had several noticeable gaffes over the past few months; most recently, the "You didn`t build that" slip is becoming a major focus for the Romney campaign. Heck, we might look back on that and say, "Wow, that really helped out his election."

The thing is, Obama is on the defensive this election. The economy is not going to go his way. Obama's attacks on Romney are not working (and costing him hundreds of millions of dollars for no effect). Romney is outspending Obama; Romney is outraising Obama (if you include SuperPACs). These are all significant trends here.

I will gladly talk more about this when I have more time.

 

[JollyRoger]

Obama is on the defensive? What candidate has endured so much heat stateside that he has taken his gaffefest abroad?

 

[Dreadnought]

Here:

The economy is not going to go his way. Obama's attacks on Romney are not working (and costing him hundreds of millions of dollars for no effect). Romney is outspending Obama; Romney is outraising Obama (if you include SuperPACs).

Romney's trip was planned far in advance of Obama's recent attacks.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

^ ^ ^ ^ ^

And Obama still has a lead in national polls (which are really quite irrelevant this far out).

Oh and he successfully concluded a war, helped overthrow a dictator, got healthcare reform passed for millions of unisured, killed Bin Laden, kept the American auto industry from imploding. I could go on and on. Obama has this in the bag. A rough month from the punditry and a few low polls mean nothing.