SCOTUS Nomination II: I Like Beer

[metalhead]

Because he's not a very good liar. He's used to being taken at his word and never had to deal with people challenging his integrity before. He thought he would produce those calendars, explain what he thought they meant, and then everyone would just go along with his version of events and he would be vindicated.

He never expected that people might not fully trust the angry man with all the broken capillaries in his face who is yelling about how he doesn't have a drinking problem.

 

[Lexicus]

Depends on how you define "virgin"

The trick is that when Kavanaugh insisted he was a virgin through high school he was only talking about his left ear.

He never expected that people might not fully trust the angry man with all the broken capillaries in his face who is yelling about how he doesn't have a drinking problem.

Yes, some of us know that when you have a drinking problem you always deny it with a smile on your face and an even keel!

Also, as @metalhead or others pointed out, people are convicted on the testimony of people who are remembering events from decades past all the time. Yes, memory is fallible but that doesn't mean that a collective body of evidence and testimony don't prove a crime happened simply because the memories are old.

From what I understand neuroscience says that long-term memories of extremely traumatic events are likely to be quite reliable. Whereas Kavanaugh may well be telling the truth in his denials, because this sort of thing was far too run-of-the-mill to have imprinted properly on his memory.

 

[Berzerker]

Would he get confirmed if he was honest about his past? Assuming of course rape was not his intent. "Yeah, I drank too much and I was a putz, I'm sorry".

 

[Timsup2nothin]

Would he get confirmed if he was honest about his past? Assuming of course rape was not his intent. "Yeah, I drank too much and I was a putz, I'm sorry".

Probably so. Fifty-one Republicans are looking for any excuse to vote yes, no matter how flimsy. That would probably have been sufficient.

 

[Synobun]

Ummmmm....he actually testified that he was a virgin, which is not the same as couldn't get off. Please tell me I don't have to explain this to you in any detail.

Is there a difference to a spoiled Yale boy in the 80s? It's my understanding that the elites tended (tend?) to see women as receptacles and nothing more.

At any rate, you can't be ruining my snark, man. I'm your ally. Laugh with me.

Would he get confirmed if he was honest about his past? Assuming of course rape was not his intent. "Yeah, I drank too much and I was a putz, I'm sorry".

Depends on what you mean by 'honest' here I guess. Honest about drinking? Yeah, I think so. I don't think the Democrats would have an issue with that either if that's all it was and it was indeed in the past.

Honest about sexually assaulting women? Nah (if we're going by good reason).

 

[Lexicus]

I'm pretty sure he's going to be confirmed regardless, but we'll see what ends up happening. I read a piece in the Atlantic today written by a "moderate" and "anti-Trump" Republican blaming the Democrats for forcing conservatives to support the President even when they don't want to, and berating the Women's March for calling Flake a rape apologist even though he cares about sexual assault etc.

The logic was basically that liberals represent such an existential threat to conservative values that conservatives now feel they must support Kavanaugh, because if they don't they are rewarding the "Avenattization" of politics.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Would he get confirmed if he was honest about his past? Assuming of course rape was not his intent. "Yeah, I drank too much and I was a putz, I'm sorry".

Yeah I think so unfortunately. The Republicans have made a ton of forced errors on this issue that have backed them into a corner. I think if they had made less of these mistakes I think they would have gotten away with it. The biggest forced error is the large body of lies that Kavanaugh told during his second Senate hearing.

Absent that and they would have probably had enough plausible deniability to force him through.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

Nah, Kavanaugh's made himself radioactive. They'll realize he'll cause them pain at the ballot box this year and beyond if they go through with it. While we're past the point where they could appoint another Judge using the normal confirmation process before the election, they can still invent a new process and get someone else through.

That's the easiest path forward for them and in the end they can still pull off a major coup. I'm kind of struggling to understand why they aren't already moving in that direction. But for all I know they already are behind the scenes while they bide their time to plan this out by going through the motions with Kavanaugh.

They don't care about norms and constitutional process so the confirmation process the next guy goes through will be a joke. I wonder if they'll even hold public hearings in all honesty.

If the Republicans do better than a total wipeout this year it will also help convince them that there is only minimal risk in these sort of tactics which will further embolden them. The end game from the current right seems to be full-up banana republic status at least at the federal level to ensure one-party rule in perpetuity.

 

[Timsup2nothin]

At any rate, you can't be ruining my snark, man. I'm your ally. Laugh with me.

It's that dog avatar man. The snark is in such a conflict with the googly eyes that it is too confusing to register as funny.

 

[Lexicus]

Nah, Kavanaugh's made himself radioactive. They'll realize he'll cause them pain at the ballot box this year and beyond if they go through with it. While we're past the point where they could appoint another Judge using their normal confirmation process before the election, they can still invent a new process and get someone through.

That's the easiest path forward for them and in the end they can still pull off a major coup. I'm kind of struggling to understand why they aren't already moving in that direction. But for all I know they already are behind the scenes while they bide their time to plan by going through the motions with Kavanaugh.

I dunno. I'm going to hunt around for more conservative takes on the whole thing. It may be that Kavanaugh has become a sort of mini-Trump, forcing Republicans to decide between alienating the base (for whom the accusations only make them support Kavanaugh more) and alienating a good chunk of the people they need to actually competitive general elections. But that one piece I mentioned made me think that there may be a dynamic in play that essentially forces the Republicans to confirm Kavanaugh because if they don't, they will be capitulating to a Democratic conspiracy to sink a qualified, respectable judge blah blah blah with gossip. Many Republicans seem to think that would basically declare open season for the Democrats to destroy any Republican they want with sexual misconduct allegations which don't even need to be proven to ruin someone's career.

If Kavanaugh isn't confirmed, then we have to hope the result is a fight between the Trumpist hard-core and the RINOs, with lots of bitterness and mutual recrimination, rather than a "we need to mobilize to give Trump/Republican majorities a freer hand." If he is confirmed, we have to hope the result is that women vote against the Republicans as much as non-white people do.

 

[Gori the Grey]

While we're past the point where they could appoint another Judge using the normal confirmation process before the election,

They don't have to get it finished before the election, just before the BLUE WAVE is seated, next January.

It may be that Kavanaugh has become a sort of mini-Trump, forcing Republicans to decide between alienating the base (for whom the accusations only make them support Kavanaugh more) and alienating a good chunk of the people they need to actually [win] competitive general elections.

I think this is exactly what has happened.

I also think they've made the calculation that a seat on the court will last longer than voter disgust at the process by which Republicans put him there. That will fade, in people's overall assessment of the Republican party, over time, I think they're thinking to themselves.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

I dunno. I'm going to hunt around for more conservative takes on the whole thing. It may be that Kavanaugh has become a sort of mini-Trump, forcing Republicans to decide between alienating the base (for whom the accusations only make them support Kavanaugh more) and alienating a good chunk of the people they need to actually competitive general elections. But that one piece I mentioned made me think that there may be a dynamic in play that essentially forces the Republicans to confirm Kavanaugh because if they don't, they will be capitulating to a Democratic conspiracy to sink a qualified, respectable judge blah blah blah with gossip. Many Republicans seem to think that would basically declare open season for the Democrats to destroy any Republican they want with sexual misconduct allegations which don't even need to be proven to ruin someone's career.

If Kavanaugh isn't confirmed, then we have to hope the result is a fight between the Trumpist hard-core and the RINOs, with lots of bitterness and mutual recrimination, rather than a "we need to mobilize to give Trump/Republican majorities a freer hand." If he is confirmed, we have to hope the result is that women vote against the Republicans as much as non-white people do.

I just think they can have their cake and eat it too. They can pick another fighter with a clean record to come out and attack the Democrats as he winds through whatever sham process they roll out. All he has to do is not be a rapist/homophobe/racist and he can fly through. The Democrats have no real parliamentary levers to pull here and have relied almost entirely on public outrage to make the Republicans even pause for just a week on Kavanaugh's appointment.

If they ditch him and revise the parliamentary procedures for the approval process then they can be done I think in 3 or 4 weeks.

 

[Lexicus]

I just think they can have their cake and eat it too. They can pick another fighter with a clean record to come out and attack the Democrats as he winds through whatever sham process they roll out. All he has to do is not be a rapist/homophobe/racist and he can fly through. The Democrats have no real parliamentary levers to pull here and have relied almost entirely on public outrage to make the Republicans even pause for just a week on Kavanaugh's appointment.

If they ditch him and revise the parliamentary procedures for the approval process then they can be done I think in 3 or 4 weeks.

Well I agree with you that would be the obvious move for them. The question is whether they see it that way, or whether they will see the Democratic conspiracy thing I talked about. My guess right now is that we'll see the latter but wouldn't exactly be surprised by the former. The only thing I will say on it is that choosing another guy would have been a lot more plausible/likely before the events of last week.

 

[hobbsyoyo]

They don't have to get it finished before the election, just before the BLUE WAVE is seated, next January.

Totally fair. But if they believe their base wants a SCOTUS appointment more than anything else then they would necessarily believe that ramming one through before the election will help them in the election.

At the same time, the fact that they still have basically 3 full months to end up with a SCOTUS appointee then they may not even have to change the appointment approval process to get it.

Well I agree with you that would be the obvious move for them. The question is whether they see it that way, or whether they will see the Democratic conspiracy thing I talked about. My guess right now is that we'll see the latter but wouldn't exactly be surprised by the former. The only thing I will say on it is that choosing another guy would have been a lot more plausible/likely before the events of last week.

It's going to be interesting to see how this plays out nonetheless. I just hope the ending isn't as ugly as the opening act.

 

[Lexicus]

I just hope the ending isn't as ugly as the opening act.

I am touched to see that you still have hope. If there is one thing I'm sure of, it's that this is going to keep getting uglier and uglier. The only difference is that it will stop getting uglier pretty soon if he isn't confirmed, while if he is on the court for life it may keep getting uglier for 30 more years.

 

[Gori the Grey]

it may keep getting uglier for 30 more years

I'm touched to see you put this in the subjunctive.

 

[Lexicus]

Well I'm leaving open the possibility that the Democrats will impeach and remove him, or that they pack the court to make him irrelevant.

 

[Gori the Grey]

Never mind my touched one-upsmanship.

Yes, yours are things worth hoping for.

 

[rah]

But until the party grows some balls, it's all just rantings on the internet.

 

[Lexicus]

But until the party grows some balls, it's all just rantings on the internet.

I'll remember this when I am Supreme Generalissimo and Dictator-for-Life of the Grand Lexicus Polity.