SGOTM 16 - U'nu'sual S'us'pec'ts

[Revent]

I have to be the devil's advocate Giving an alternate view is necessary in these games!
Perhaps there is indeed no rush for CR but the extra 4000 beakers is very compelling in my opinion. At our current stable tech rate, that's around 15 turns of research or so?

Also, I think it's very easily plausible for us to research Economics as well. Neil's idea of using the EP slider for one turn will let us know when he is almost started/done with Lib. We let him research guilds for us, trade for it, research gunpowder whilst hoping he will research banking for us for a trade. If not, we research banking, go econ, whilst we bulb SM. Easily plausible imo.

 

[neilmeister]

I have to be the devil's advocate Giving an alternate view is necessary in these games!

Indeed, it is invaluable. You made us re-evaluate our invasion plans, and I think for the better.

Perhaps there is indeed no rush for CR but the extra 4000 beakers is very compelling in my opinion. At our current stable tech rate, that's around 15 turns of research or so?

Also, I think it's very easily plausible for us to research Economics as well. Neil's idea of using the EP slider for one turn will let us know when he is almost started/done with Lib. We let him research guilds for us, trade for it, research gunpowder whilst hoping he will research banking for us for a trade. If not, we research banking, go econ, whilst we bulb SM. Easily plausible imo.

The extra free beakers would be very nice, but the cost easily outweigh it.

Beelining Electricty will take ~38 turns at current sustainable tech rate, and assuming we use 2 GS for bulbing.

If we delay Economics by 38 turns, that is ~2300 commerce we have forfeited (or about 3000 beakers) from not being in Free Market. (3 per city with 20 cities). This doesn't even add in anything like delayed Banks, delayed Custom Houses, delayed Biology Farms, delayed Sushi........

edit: if we do get both Guilds & Banking in trades, then we can slot Economics in, but I think it is rapidly becoming unrealistic. I'm just hoping for Guilds, I don't expect to get Banking or Chemistry.

 

[Revent]

Well, I guess my plan does rely on trading a bit.
Remember earlier when we were talking about Astro or Phil first? And you said that it's unlikely we will get Maths OR Calendar via trade? Guess what happened?

I think trading is very well possible. You just have to give the AI a bit of a nudge since these are both high priority techs for the AI.

As for our GS, it will give us around 1900 beakers.

So at 50% research:
We will reach Gunpowder in 5 turns.
Let's say we trade for Phil here. Get our GS (hopefully).
Start researching Lib until 1 turns: 5 turns.
Trade for Guilds.
Research SM for 5 turns.
Bulb SM.
Start researching Physics. Get another GS hopefully.
Research Physics for 11 turns.
Trade for Banking in between if possible and switch to Economics.
Finish Economics if applicable (6 turns)
Bulb Physics with GS.
Get free GS and another GS from GP farm hopefully.
If AI has Edu and Phil, trade for Chem, bulb bio and Lib Electricity.
If not, research Electricity for 9 turns.
Double Bulb Electricity.
Lib Radio.



The idea is that if we need something to fall back on, we can just use Lib to get Electricity and bulb biology at the same time whilst getting us our merchant.

The AI do have priorities of techs and luckily for us, the Chemistry line is a very high priority! So it's very well feasible that we will be able to do our trades. By the way, for Sushi, we do need Corporations as well which requires constitution. I think you may have not taken that into account in your plan.

Edit: We have no risk of losing the Econ race because as soon as we can trade for Banking, we can research Economics whilst the AI will have to research Paper AND Education before getting to Econ which is why I'm so confident with our Lib race!

 

[SteelHorse]

Good play
IMO - First to Econ and a good Lib tech should be the priorities.

Babylon is loading up on culture wonders Sistine and SP are his.
Wonder if we should build AP?
Perhaps spread Bud to Hammy and Sal.

 

[Revent]

Good play
IMO - First to Econ and a good Lib tech should be the priorities.

Babylon is loading up on culture wonders Sistine and SP are his.
Wonder if we should build AP?
Perhaps spread Bud to Hammy and Sal.

Aren't we stealing that from Ramesses?

 

[Revent]

I'd also like to say that why are we building 8 universities?
Surely, in a city like production, a university will almost certainly never pay off?

 

[neilmeister]

Well, I guess my plan does rely on trading a bit.
Remember earlier when we were talking about Astro or Phil first? And you said that it's unlikely we will get Maths OR Calendar via trade? Guess what happened?

We didn't get Maths in trade, we teched it ourselves, didn't we?
We were pretty lucky to get Calendar, it literally became available just before we needed it, I don't want to rely only on luck.

I think trading is very well possible. You just have to give the AI a bit of a nudge since these are both high priority techs for the AI.

Like Kevin Garnett, anything is possible

Before I start on this, I really appreciate you articulating what you propose in a plan. It allows us to approve/improve/argue....
My criticisms aren't aimed at you, I'm just trying to think it through.

So at 50% research:
We will reach Gunpowder in 5 turns.
Let's say we trade for Phil here. OK, but what happens if we can't trade for it here, in 5 turns. What do we research then? Do we turn research off?
Get our GS (hopefully).(GS from GP farm)
Start researching Lib until 1 turns: 5 turns.
Trade for Guilds.(Hopeful this early, as Qin won't finish it until the turn after, but we don't need it yet for pre-reqs, so OK)
Research SM for 5 turns.
Bulb SM.
Start researching Physics. Get another GS hopefully.(GS from GP farm)
Research Physics for 11 turns. (13 turns)
Trade for Banking in between if possible and switch to Economics. (a bit hopeful, but possible)
Finish Economics if applicable (6 turns)
Bulb Physics with GS.
Get free GS and another GS from GP farm hopefully.(GS from GP farm)
If AI has Edu and Phil, trade for Chem, bulb bio and Lib Electricity. This is very unrealistic. Oh crap, your going for Lib, please give me Chemistry so I can bulb Biology & Lib Electricity
If not, research Electricity for 9 turns. What happens if they start Lib while we are researching this?? What do we Lib then?
Double Bulb Electricity.
Lib Radio.

This plans seems to rely on getting 3 GS' from GP Farm.
While I have assumed we will get 1 for SM, both of our plans rely on this, so its a moot point. But 3?

edit: assuming we DO NOT go for Economics, this plan is 36 turns. We get another GP in 5 turns, the next one is in ~19 turns, the one after that is in ~35 turns. So it is possible. How lucky do we feel to get 3 GS' at 60-70% odds each.

edit 2: If we get 3 GS' then on the Biology first plan we can almost double bulb Physics after Libbing Biology.

The idea is that if we need something to fall back on, we can just use Lib to get Electricity and bulb biology at the same time whilst getting us our merchant.

Getting Electricity from Lib doesn't appeal to me at all to be honest, even as a backup.

The AI do have priorities of techs and luckily for us, the Chemistry line is a very high priority! So it's very well feasible that we will be able to do our trades. By the way, for Sushi, we do need Corporations as well which requires constitution. I think you may have not taken that into account in your plan.

Oh yeah, move along, nothing to see here.....

 

[neilmeister]

I'd also like to say that why are we building 8 universities?
Surely, in a city like production, a university will almost certainly never pay off?

This is a research game, a race to FT1.

Production has 26 base commerce, and this will only increase. A Uni gives it +3.75 beakers at 50% research right now.

When it gets Sushi, it will have 10-15 scientists, if we are in Representation, this will give it ~100 base bpt, so a Uni will add 25 bpt.

Do you really think it is not a good idea to build a Uni here?

 

[Revent]

We didn't get Maths in trade, we teched it ourselves, didn't we?
We were pretty lucky to get Calendar, it literally became available just before we needed it, I don't want to rely only on luck.

We did research but, but I believe that it was available for trade. However, Calendar was available. We're not relying on luck so much so to speak to be honest. If an AI randomly chose any tech with each tech having equal weighting, that would be relying on luck. However, we KNOW that AI tend to go for certain techs. Why do you think it's possible to win the Lib race on Deity? The AI don't prioritise Education. Some games, I've seen the AI with rifles but STILL no education!

Like Kevin Garnett, anything is possible

All things are possible but some things are more possible than others

Before I start on this, I really appreciate you articulating what you propose in a plan. It allows us to approve/improve/argue....
My criticisms aren't aimed at you, I'm just trying to think it through.

Perfectly fine

This plans seems to rely on getting 3 GS' from GP Farm.
While I have assumed we will get 1 for SM, both of our plans rely on this, so its a moot point. But 3?

Our GP farm gives us 3 great people in the time frame I have calculated. I've included the scientists we lose from TGL and the loss of the GP points it contributes as well.

edit: assuming we DO NOT go for Economics, this plan is 36 turns. We get another GP in 5 turns, the next one is in ~19 turns, the one after that is in ~35 turns. So it is possible. How lucky do we feel to get 3 GS' at 60-70% odds each.

I think it is fairly reasonable. If anything, we do have something to fall back on.

Getting Electricity from Lib doesn't appeal to me at all to be honest, even as a backup.

It may not be the best tech of all, but it is an expensive tech and a preq for many more important techs so although it directly may not have a benefit, it will save us quite a few turns.

 

[neilmeister]

I still think you place far to much weight to the free beakers from Lib.

I also want to get an expensive tech, but one that will help us immediately.

I will put together a plan so we can compare.

 

[Revent]

This is a research game, a race to FT1.

Production has 26 base commerce, and this will only increase. A Uni gives it +3.75 beakers at 50% research right now.

When it gets Sushi, it will have 10-15 scientists, if we are in Representation, this will give it ~100 base bpt, so a Uni will add 25 bpt.

Do you really think it is not a good idea to build a Uni here?

I've never played around with Sushi much so I don't actually know how much surplus food it gives us or how powerful it is! If it is the case that we can get 10 scientists, a university in every city should be the case, no?

 

[Revent]

The issue is not that we are Libbing biology itself. Bio is a great tech to get! But I think the issue is that we can get something better out of it firstly. Secondly, the issue I have is that we are going to research a ton of techs that AI will always research themselves almost all the time! It just feels like such a waste especially considering that we could have spent those turns researching something the AI does not research and trade for these backfill techs.

 

[neilmeister]

At 50% sustainable tech rate, current cash in bank ignored (as in Revents plan)

Great people in: 5t, ~19t, ~35t. About 60-70% chance of GS on each. For the consistency of the plans, lets just assume 3 GS.

Assuming we trade for Philo, Guilds & Banking
Turns from now
5 - Gunpowder
14 - Chemistry
19 - SM (assumes we use 1 GS to part bulb it - we have 2 chances to get a GS)
19 - Trade for Philo (we need it by now)
24 - 1 turn from finishing Lib
24 - Trade for Guilds (we need it by now)
25 - Trade for Banking (we need it by now)
30 - Economics
31 - Lib Biology
35 - Physics (double bulb)

Assuming we trade for Philo & Guilds
Turns from now
5 - Gunpowder
14 - Chemistry
19 - SM (assumes we use 1 GS to part bulb it - we have 2 chances to get a GS)
19 - Trade for Philo (we need it by now)
24 - 1 turn from finishing Lib
24 - Trade for Guilds (we need it by now)
28 - Banking
34 - Economics
35 - Lib Biology
38 - Physics (double bulb)

Assuming we trade for only Philo
Turns from now
5 - Gunpowder
14 - Chemistry
19 - SM (assumes we use 1 GS to part bulb it - we have 2 chances to get a GS)
19 - Trade for Philo (we need it by now)
25 - Lib Biology
29 - Guilds
33 - Banking
39 - Economics
42 - Physics (double bulb)

As you can hopefully see, in this plan:
- we need to trade for Guilds in 24 turns, your plan doesn't need Guilds
- we need to trade for Banking in 25 turns, your plan doesn't need Banking
- we need 1 GS in the next 2. Yours needs all 3 to be GS's
- we get Chemistry, Biology & Economics instead of Electricity & Radio on t35. (assuming 3 GS and that we trade all 3 Philo, Guilds and Banking)

edit: I know which techs I would rather have.

edit 2: Even if we don;t get the desired trades, we can Lib Biology in 25 turns. Your plan we are waiting 36 turns. If the AI are nowhere near Lib, then we can go for Economics or even Medicine.

 

[neilmeister]

The issue is not that we are Libbing biology itself. Bio is a great tech to get! But I think the issue is that we can get something better out of it firstly. Secondly, the issue I have is that we are going to research a ton of techs that AI will always research themselves almost all the time! It just feels like such a waste especially considering that we could have spent those turns researching something the AI does not research and trade for these backfill techs.

I agree that we don't want techs the AI would research & trade to us.

The problem is trying to predict exactly what they will go for, and not betting the farm.


edit: I will now do some contingency plans, firstly assuming we do not get a GS in 5 turns, and then assuming we miss the 2nd GS as well. I will focis on just Philo & Guilds in trade fro simplicity.

 

[Revent]

As you can hopefully see, in this plan:
- we need to trade for Philo in 19 turns, your plan needs it in 5
- we need to trade for Guilds in 24 turns, your plan doesn't need Guilds
- we need to trade for Banking in 25 turns, your plan doesn't need Banking
- we need 1 GS in the next 2. Yours needs all 3 to be GS's
- we get Chemistry, Biology & Economics instead of Electricity & Radio on t35. (assuming 3 GS and that we trade all 3 Philo, Guilds and Banking)

Just for clarification, we don't NEED Phil in 5! I just had to slot it in there to clarify I didn't forget it!
My plan requires a trade for guilds AND banking!!!!
If my plan does not work out with the GS's, we can see what to do and change accordingly. For example, we can lib electricity instead of radio.

 

[neilmeister]

At 50% sustainable tech rate, current cash in bank ignored (as in Revents plan)

Great people in: 5t, ~19t, ~35t. About 60-70% chance of GS on each. For the consistency of the plans, lets just assume we miss the first GS.


Biology first plan
Assuming we trade for Philo, Guilds & Banking
Turns from now
5 - Gunpowder
14 - Chemistry
19 - SM (part bulbed by 2nd GS)
19 - Trade for Philo (we need it by now)
24 - 1 turn from finishing Lib
24 - Trade for Guilds (we need it by now)
25 - Trade for Banking (we need it by now)
30 - Economics
31 - Lib Biology
41 - Physics (single bulb)

Assuming we trade for Philo & Guilds
Turns from now
5 - Gunpowder
14 - Chemistry
19 - SM (part bulbed by 2nd GS)
19 - Trade for Philo (we need it by now)
24 - 1 turn from finishing Lib
24 - Trade for Guilds (we need it by now)
28 - Banking
34 - Economics
35 - Lib Biology
44 - Physics (single bulb)


Radio Plan
5 - Gunpowder
10 - SM (still needs to be bulbed)
10 - trade for Philo (need it by now)
15 - 1 turn from finishing Lib
?? Next GP is still 4 turns away, so just research Guilds/SM saving cash at 0% for 4 turns
19 - SM (bulbed)
34 - Physics (4 turns at 100% due to saved cash from before, rest at 50%)
42 - Electricity (double bulbed)
43 - Lib Radio


As you can hopefully see, in this plan:
- we need to trade for Philo in 19 turns, your plan needs it in 10
- we need to trade for Guilds in 24 turns, your plan doesn't need Guilds
- we need to trade for Banking in 25 turns, your plan doesn't need Banking
- we get Chemistry, Biology & Economics instead of Electricity & Radio.

 

[Revent]

I agree that we don't want techs the AI would research & trade to us.

The problem is trying to predict exactly what they will go for, and not betting the farm.

But it's very frequent that an AI will research these techs! It would be a rare occurrence in which no AI will research these high priority techs. Of course, there is a gamble we are taking, but a 99% chance of winning in a fight with a mace is also a gamble.

 

[neilmeister]

Just for clarification, we don't NEED Phil in 5! I just had to slot it in there to clarify I didn't forget it!

OK, you are right, you don;t need Philo and to research Lib when you do. I will edit my post

My plan requires a trade for guilds AND banking!!!!

Only to get Economics, its not required to Lib Radio, is it? Or have I missed something.

If my plan does not work out with the GS's, we can see what to do and change accordingly. For example, we can lib electricity instead of radio.

Once we commit to a plan, we have to commit. I don;t want to suddenly the plan is no longer tanable half-way through it.

But it's very frequent that an AI will research these techs! It would be a rare occurrence in which no AI will research these high priority techs. Of course, there is a gamble we are taking, but a 99% chance of winning in a fight with a mace is also a gamble.

Oh I know, 99.4% to be exact.

 

[Revent]

edit: I will now do some contingency plans, firstly assuming we do not get a GS in 5 turns, and then assuming we miss the 2nd GS as well. I will focis on just Philo & Guilds in trade fro simplicity.

Thing is, even with my plan at its worst, we will be researching techs we want anyway, and Biology will STILL be open to us once we trade for chemistry which again, is an AI high priority tech.

 

[Revent]

OK, you are right, you don;t need Philo and to research Lib when you do. I will edit my post

Only to get Economics, its not required to Lib Radio, is it? Or have I missed something.



Once we commit to a plan, we have to commit. I don;t want to suddenly the plan is no longer tanable half-way through it.

Yeah, but the rate the AI is currently at, I think it's perfectly possible for us to get Econ and lib Radio.

There's nothing wrong with having a contingency if things don't go to plan!

Edit: Your plan seems to have missed out Chemistry.