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[BTS] SGOTM 25 - Home Slices

Discussion in 'Civ4 - Succession GOTM' started by AlanH, Jan 13, 2018.

  1. LowtherCastle

    LowtherCastle Deity

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    Btw, thanks for all your feedback during the turnset, folks! I really appreciate not having to wait for a response.
     
  2. LowtherCastle

    LowtherCastle Deity

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    Alphabet

    No AIs in SG25 will tech trade with us at Annoyed. Mehmed (tech trade at Cautious), JC (Cautious), and Toku (Pleased) are the only AIs currently Cautious with us. Toku already has +1 Resource Trades with us, so we could now get him to Pleased with +4 Fair Trade, simply by gifting him a city or a tech once he gets Alpha. He's got Bureau so should tech pretty fast. We need someone to trade us Alpha or tech it ourselves. Here's a dive into AI attitudes as of T29.

    SG25 T29 AI Attitudes.jpg

    As you know, the hidden attitude value needs to be between -2 and 2 for Cautious, 3 to 9 for Pleased, and 10+ for Friendly. So Roosy needs +2 from Fair Trade or something to get to Cautious. I have highlighted in green, where the AI above is Pleased with the AI to the left, that is, where we'll get negmods for DoWing. For example, JC won't like us DoWing Toku, whereas Mehmed couldn't give two hoots about anyone.

    Note that, like Toku, Stalin needs to be Pleased to tech trade so we can basically forget about tech trades with him. Churchill and Bismarck would be PITAs to get to Pleased. Our basic choices for Alpha are:

    de Gaulle
    Roosy
    Toku
    Mehmed
    don Julio

    I guess that's not as bad as I thought. Anyone done any guestimates on when they'll start comping Alpha?
     
  3. Kaitzilla

    Kaitzilla Lord Croissant

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    Ok, I have the save.
    Will put out a 1st draft plan tomorrow.

    Hardest question is certainly tech choice.
     
  4. Kaitzilla

    Kaitzilla Lord Croissant

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    Tokugawa is the only AI with decent teching ability right now.
    He finished Iron Working 9 turns ago, has Bureau, and has noticeably higher (GNP) than us, even without any trade routes.

    Shall we spend +20:espionage: on the slider this turn to see if he is teching Alpha for us?
    He also has Science flavor (medium), which automatically makes him a bit more likely to tech Alpha after Iron Working than the rest of the AI.

    If he is teching Alpha, we could conquer Bismark's city and then gift it to Toku for Pleased Open Borders which would give him another +4:science: per turn due to trade routes.

    **Edit**
    I've estimated the test game Deity AI Toku will pay around 74% of the cost we do for Alpha, so 337:science: instead of 456:science:
    Subtract off the the 20% prereq bonus Alpha gets, and that is 281:science: RAW that Toku has to produce total to tech Alphabet himself.

    Estimated tech rate for Bureau Toku is:
    Palace - 8 commerce from Palace * 50% = 12 commerce
    Capital tiles - 8 commerce from tiles * 50% = 12 commerce
    2nd city - 8 commerce from tiles = 8 commerce
    No trade routes
    80% Science Slider

    So Tokugawa should have around 25:science: per turn RAW (RAW means not counting 20% tech bonus) right now on Turn 29 thanks to the Fur.

    That means 12 turns to Alphabet if he picked it right after Iron Working..
    Since Tokugawa finished Iron Working 9 turns ago on Turn 20 due to power surge/score boost, then the earliest Alphabet possible is on Turn 32.
    Spoiler :









    Remember, GNP(Gold) is:
    total commerce + total culture + total espionage + (total research * research bonus) - expenses (F2)
    I think.
     
    Last edited: Feb 17, 2018
  5. Kaitzilla

    Kaitzilla Lord Croissant

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    Here are the techs by Era as recorded by Refar.
    https://forums.civfanatics.com/threads/bts-technology-eras.265996/#post-6563436

    This should help focus our Science Bureau goals.

    Ancient Era Techs
    FISHING
    HUNTING
    MYSTICISM
    MINING
    PRIESTHOOD
    THE WHEEL
    AGRICULTURE
    ARCHERY
    MEDITATION
    POTTERY
    MASONRY
    POLYTHEISM
    SAILING
    ANIMAL HUSBANDRY
    MONOTHEISM
    WRITING
    BRONZE WORKING

    Classical Era Techs
    IRON WORKING
    LITERATURE
    HORSEBACK RIDING
    MATHEMATICS
    MONARCHY
    DRAMA
    AESTHETICS
    ALPHABET
    CONSTRUCTION
    CODE OF LAWS
    CALENDAR
    COMPASS
    CURRENCY
    METAL CASTING

    Medieval Era Techs
    THEOLOGY
    MUSIC
    PAPER
    OPTICS
    FEUDALISM
    BANKING
    MACHINERY
    CIVIL SERVICE
    PHILOSOPHY
    GUILDS
    ENGINEERING
    DIVINE RIGHT

    Renaissance Era Techs
    GUNPOWDER
    LIBERALISM
    ECONOMICS
    CORPORATION
    PRINTING PRESS
    REPLACEABLE PARTS
    NATIONALISM
    EDUCATION
    CHEMISTRY
    MILITARY SCIENCE
    MILITARY TRADITION
    CONSTITUTION
    ASTRONOMY
    RIFLING
    DEMOCRACY

    Industrial Era Techs
    FASCISM
    SCIENTIFIC METHOD
    COMMUNISM (Civ 4 code calls it UTOPIA :high5:)
    STEEL
    STEAM POWER
    BIOLOGY
    COMBUSTION
    PHYSICS
    ARTILLERY
    MEDICINE
    ELECTRICITY
    RAILROAD
    ASSEMBLY LINE
    FISSION
    INDUSTRIALISM

    Modern Era Techs
    MASS MEDIA
    REFRIGERATION
    ROCKETRY
    FLIGHT
    ADVANCED FLIGHT
    ECOLOGY
    RADIO
    SATELLITES
    SUPERCONDUCTORS
    COMPUTERS
    LASER
    PLASTICS
    COMPOSITES
    FIBER OPTICS
    ROBOTICS

    Future Era Techs
    GENETICS
    STEALTH
    FUSION
    FUTURE TECH
     
    Last edited: Feb 17, 2018
  6. Kaitzilla

    Kaitzilla Lord Croissant

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    Here are the AI tech speed estimates on Turn 29 assuming 80%:science: slider and no Libraries.

    #1 Japan - 10 Population (2 cities plus another Settler) / No trade routes / +25:science: per turn? thanks to Bureaucracy
    #2 America - 9 Population (2 cities) / 1 trade route to human / +18:science: per turn?
    #3 Germany - 8 Population (2 cities) / No trade routes due to Rome running Mercantilism / +15:science: per turn?
    #4 England - 6 Population (2 cities) / No trade routes due to Mercantilism / +12:science: per turn? (Library would be huge :science: boost with +1 Free Specialist)
    #5 Rome - 3 Population / No trade routes due to Mercantilism / +12:science: per turn? (Library would be huge :science: boost with +1 Free Specialist)
    #6 France - 4 Population / No Open Borders with anyone / +10:science: per turn?
    #7 Russia - 2 Population / No trade routes, landlocked / +8:science: per turn?
    #8 Ottomans - 2 Population / No trade routes, landlocked / +8:science: per turn?

    It should have been tight for Ottomans to get Iron Working done by Turn 22. :hmm:
    Iron Working would require the AI to accumulate around 187:science: RAW, or 8.5:science: per turn.
    Maybe the 1 city civs run 100%:science: slider?

    **Edit**
    Huh, that's weird, techs on Classical are 10% cheaper than normal?
    Alphabet is 507:science: on Ancient Start normal/deity, and 456:science: on Classical Start normal/deity.

    **Edit2**
    Good heavens, the worst AI has 13 GNP according to Demographics screen.
    Spoiler :
    Take off 4:espionage: and 2:culture: from Palace, and that is abysmal :science:+:commerce:+:culture:-expenses for someone considering how many +5:culture: per turn holy cities there are.
     
    Last edited: Feb 17, 2018
  7. babybluepants

    babybluepants Deity GOTM Staff

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    The slider rate is the important variable. Ottomans and Rome were among the fastest to IW, along with Japan. Their sliders must be at 100%, while everyone else must be much lower. Since we've relieved Stalin of distance maintenance, he might be speeding up a bit, too.
     
  8. babybluepants

    babybluepants Deity GOTM Staff

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    If you are estimating completion in as little as 3t, is it really worthwhile using the espy slider?
    What is the plan if he does get Alpha?
     
  9. Kaitzilla

    Kaitzilla Lord Croissant

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    Tokugawa only trades Techs at pleased.

    We have +2 with him currently due to +1 fair trade and +1 resources.
    Gifting Tokugawa 1 city would definitely get him to Pleased.

    But, we are currently eye-balling his fat city Manchou since it has Fur.
    If we DOW and take it, that will destroy any chances for trading for Alphabet.

    Using the slider to put +20:espionage: to peek at what Tokugawa is teching will instantly clear up our future war plans, and add a bit more :espionage: for the eventual Civil Service tech steal.

    Espionage costs for Toku are 104%, so he has used his espionage slider already?


    If we see that Tokugawa is teching Alphabet, then we need a city to gift him briefly, trade for Alpha, then DOW to take his cities.
    If Alpha is more than 4 turns away, we'd have to delay the next war.
     
    Last edited: Feb 17, 2018
  10. Kaitzilla

    Kaitzilla Lord Croissant

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    What a strange game.

    No AI are building wonders for us to steal.

    And there are no barbs on our continent yet.
    What on earth did the mapmaker do?!?
     
  11. Kaitzilla

    Kaitzilla Lord Croissant

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    Need more time.
    Will try to have a draft plan tomorrow.
     
  12. LowtherCastle

    LowtherCastle Deity

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    Absolutely put enough espies on Toku. That's brilliant thinking, Kait! :goodjob::goodjob::goodjob::goodjob::goodjob::goodjob: Toku is often the first to tech Alpha. We'll need those eps on Toku to steal CS anyway. If we don't capture Tsing, we could also plan to gift Gua or whatever.

    :rockon:
     
  13. LowtherCastle

    LowtherCastle Deity

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    I think it's too soon. We've only just begun the game. I wonder if we settle the second stone and connect and gift that city to Roosy's city, if it will build wonders. It's got chops galore.

    I think he had to make a barb city with a stack of units that garrison. But how does he stop the barbs from killing them off? Maybe he put a palace in that city. Gyathaar gave the barbs a palace once.
     
  14. LowtherCastle

    LowtherCastle Deity

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    Another way to get Roosy to build lots of wonders might be to tech Astro, gift him stone and CS.
     
  15. Kaitzilla

    Kaitzilla Lord Croissant

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    I'm pondering the choice of leaving Tokugawa alone and grooming him to be our main trading partner.
    He has a pretty good track record of going for Alphabet sooner or later historically.
    So far, we have not gotten a single -diplo with Toku even though we've acted like beasts.
    Tokugawa's capital with the Palace and Bureau might do more work for us than if we owned that island city ourselves.
    Spoiler :

    If we could bribe Tokugawa into a war (he will DOW anyone he is Pleased with or under), then we could get a further +4 shared war relations.
    Having Gua whip a Settler in 4 turns and gift Toku a city on his island would be instant +4 fair trade and +1 Liberation.
    Shared War and Liberation diplo bonuses would be crucial towards a Friendly Toku once we pick Taoism as a religion and get -2 with Toku for being different religions.

    Friendly Toku (+12 relations) would trade any tech, more than just Alpha or Monarchy.
    It would probably require 2 gift cities on his home island for +3 (Liberate)

    Is it possible to take Tokugawa as a Peace Vassal? (WastinTime is really good at this mechanic)
    Island civs are a bit notorious for not being interested in DoWing others.
    Do we need to put a 3rd city on his island and give it to France before Toku will be willing to DOW someone?
    I'm sure we could get Land Vassal status with Toku if he is allowed to keep his Fur City, but the -diplo from border pressure would be worrying.
    Tokugawa is rather irritable to border pressure if I remember right, so -diplo from border tension would be a barrier to good relations if Toku kept Manchou.




    Also, what does the team think about Colossus?
    I know it gets obsoleted very, very fast if we beeline Astro with Scientist bulbs, but it would be a huge joke if no other AI built it and we couldn't because it became obsolete and we missed out on 4 points. :sad:

    Imagine if Gua and Shanghai both got Forges?
    Whip overflows could be used in both cities to Construct Colossus for fail gold and +1:gold: on water tiles.
    Cities with Forges (+2 happiness currently) are also able to 2-pop Workers cold with good results with +60% production bonus. :)

    Would need the Bronze from Bismark's city. :devil:
     
    Last edited: Feb 18, 2018
  16. LowtherCastle

    LowtherCastle Deity

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    @Tokyo has no TRs: Doesn't it have TRs with Manchou right now?
     
  17. LowtherCastle

    LowtherCastle Deity

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    Possible Toku plusmods, assuming we DoW once:

    Fair Trade: +4
    Shared War: +4 (requires 32 turns of shared war, +5 while war still ongoing)
    Resource trades: +2 (100 trade turns)
    Shared religion: +4 (30 turns)
    OBs: +2 (50 turns)
    Fav Civic (Mercantilism): +6 (50 turns)
    LIberation: +6 or more (4 liberated cities or more)

    Seems like we could get him to Friendly with ease if we so choose.
     
  18. LowtherCastle

    LowtherCastle Deity

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    Toku has to be Pleased with us to accept a DoW bribe. We'd have a short window of opportunity before DOWing him, but against whom? This would allow us to immediately re-OB with Toku after capturing Manchou.
     
  19. Kaitzilla

    Kaitzilla Lord Croissant

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    It should not have domestic trade routes yet.

    Maybe if the mapmaker unfogged the coastline for Toku before the game started.
    Or we could trade Toku our map.
     
  20. LowtherCastle

    LowtherCastle Deity

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    What GPs do we need, aside from possibly 2 GSes for Astro? At least one Artist, maybe one more Spy, and any GPs for GAges. Anything else?
     

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