Suicide bomber in Ansbach, Germany

[Falk]

Deportation is not always that easy. For instance, it has been reported that deporting people to Morocco is difficult because Morocco doesn't allow its own people back into the country. What are you going to do? Fly them over and parachute them out of the plane?

I guess it's similar with Syria. Even if we deported people to Syria, how's it going to work? Do we fly them over with Luftwaffe planes and leave them at some military airport?

The huge mistake has been made years ago when the refugee situation in Greece and Italy was ignored by - among others - the German government. That's what got us into this mess. And now there is not much wiggle room. It's easy to demand better handling of the refugee situation, but it's now pretty much impossible to do anything right short term.

That's also true for the "Merkel invited millions of people" legend - it's a compelling narrative, but it's not true. When Merkel briefly suspended the Dublin agreement and had photos taken with refugees, those millions were already on their way. Closing the borders would simply have shifted the problem south, to Austria, Hungary, the Balkan countries and Turkey. That would have likely spelled disaster.

Of course, I don't really have too much sympathy with Merkel. She could have avoided most of this by taking action years ago, but for populist reasons she choose not to.

 

[kronic]

Deportation is not always that easy. For instance, it has been reported that deporting people to Morocco is difficult because Morocco doesn't allow its own people back into the country. What are you going to do? Fly them over and parachute them out of the plane?

Or give them extra money. Or cut development aid. Or make payments conditional. You portray it as if there were no policy options at hand.

The huge mistake has been made years ago when the refugee situation in Greece and Italy was ignored by - among others - the German government. That's what got us into this mess. And now there is not much wiggle room. It's easy to demand better handling of the refugee situation, but it's now pretty much impossible to do anything right short term.

That is true. Plus, why not help countries like Lebanon? But no, they even cut support in 2014/15.

That's also true for the "Merkel invited millions of people" legend - it's a compelling narrative, but it's not true. When Merkel briefly suspended the Dublin agreement and had photos taken with refugees, those millions were already on their way. Closing the borders would simply have shifted the problem south, to Austria, Hungary, the Balkan countries and Turkey. That would have likely spelled disaster.

That is not true. Some were on their way, others weren't. She gave the clear signal that everyone from Syria would be welcome. Hence, everyone tries to be Syrian these days.

 

[luiz]

Deportation is not always that easy. For instance, it has been reported that deporting people to Morocco is difficult because Morocco doesn't allow its own people back into the country. What are you going to do? Fly them over and parachute them out of the plane?

I guess it's similar with Syria. Even if we deported people to Syria, how's it going to work? Do we fly them over with Bundeswehr planes and leave them at some military airport?

The huge mistake has been made years ago when the refugee situation in Greece and Italy was ignored by - among others - the German government. That's what got us into this mess. And now there is not much wiggle room. It's easy to demand better handling of the refugee situation, but it's now pretty much impossible to do anything right short term.

That's also true for the "Merkel invited millions of people" legend - it's a compelling narrative, but it's not true. When Merkel briefly suspended the Dublin agreement and had photos taken with refugees, those millions were already on their way. Closing the borders would simply have shifted the problem south, to Austria, Hungary, the Balkan countries and Turkey. That would have likely spelled disaster.

Of course, I don't really have too much sympathy with Merkel. She could have avoided most of this by taking action years ago, but for populist reasons she choose not to.

Your main point is correct, but about Merkel inviting refugees, the problem is that people respond to perception as much as to fact. When she suspended the Dublin agreements, took photos with refugees, allowed trainloads of them to enter Germany daily with no controls whatsoever, the message that was received from Morocco to Pakistan was quite clear: "Germany is open, nobody will be kicked out, no questions asked, we're all welcome to pack and go!" That's why there are so many "refugees" from Algeria, Egypt, Pakistan, and etc. And of course a lot of Syrians who were already at safety in Lebanon or Turkey decided to come as well. The perception that Germany was open and welcoming intensified a lot the migration that was already being caused by the war (and the economic migration that is always going on).

There is no doubt that Merkel committed grave mistakes in her initial handling of the situation. And you're right, there's no easy solution, and it's not like the over 1 million people who came last year will go back once Syria is pacified. So Germany and Europe will suffer the consequences of the mistakes of 2015 for decades to come.

 

[Falk]

@kronic

Or give them extra money. Or cut development aid. Or make payments conditional. You portray it as if there were no policy options at hand.

Why do you assume that such policies are not being used? Because it's exactly what the German and the state governments are doing!

That is not true. Some were on their way, others weren't. She gave the clear signal that everyone from Syria would be welcome. Hence, everyone tries to be Syrian these days.

That's the narrative, yes. It's not true though, it's not even remotely plausible. It's an incredibly technocratic view of the situation - it ignores that we are talking about real people. Do you seriously think that there were Syrians sitting at home on their couch seeing pictures of that nice old German lady and going "Oh dear, I gotta flee to Germany".
No one flees their home, their home town, their home country, their friends and family to make a life-threatening "journey" across an ocean and many borders just because the chancellor of some distant country seems welcoming.

That this wildly implausible and technocratic story has taken hold of so many people's minds is what truely worries me.

@luiz
There is no indication that Merkel's actions and words led to any of the things you claim it led to. It's just that powerful story.

and it's not like the over 1 million people who came last year will go back once Syria is pacified

Again, this is technocratic thinking. If one just looks at the numbers it seems unlikely that any Syrian will head back home, because after all, they are better off here in a stable country with a strong economy. If you look beyond the numbers, things aren't quite as clear. We know from other refugee situations (during the Balkan wars for example) that quite many refugees will go back home as soon as possible. Indeed, the number of current refugees already choosing to go home is increasing!

These refugees are human beings. They had a life that they've left behind!

It might be less clear for the "refugees", as you call them, from other places, but it's the government's task to deport these people if they have no good reason to be here. And the government will do that, it's just taking time.

 

[FriendlyFire]

@kronic

Why do you assume that such policies are not being used? Because it's exactly what the German and the state governments are doing!

If Greece dosnt want Germany Euromonies, then its time to unleash the Panzers Bankers again !
Thats why I suggest housing the troublemaker and problematic refugees in a remote Greek island, it wont be long before most will opt to return to their home country willingly.

Moderator Action: spam
Please read the forum rules: http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=422889

 

[GoodSarmatian]

If Greece dosnt want Germany Euromonies, then its time to unleash the Panzers Bankers again ! Thats why I suggest housing the troublemaker and problematic refugees in a remote Greek island.

I think it's time you see a doctor about your hate boner for Greece.

 

[Kyriakos]

If Greece dosnt want Germany Euromonies, then its time to unleash the Panzers Bankers again ! Thats why I suggest housing the troublemaker and problematic refugees in a remote Greek island.

You should really think of stopping posting such idiocies, i suppose not even you believe we will run a pan-euro prison here to get some money - although you may be as out of touch with reality to actually think so. Apparently for the last year you are a 1-issue poster, yelling anti-Greece stuff, and the novelty of such a freak-show by you has worn off by now. Given you provide zero insight with your anti-Greece strange ranting, i do hope the mods catch up with this sooner rather than later, and given other 1-issue posters were perma-banned despite not attacking/trolling others, your fate will - i hope - be the same.

 

[Falk]

I thought his postings were meant as satire. Is he serious...?

And by the way, the way some people, German politicians among them, talk about Greece is the same technocratic approach that I highlighted above: it's easy to say that Greece has to reform their economy, spend less, protect their borders, whatever, but this is ignoring that there are actual human beings living in Greece. Reality is not a game of civilization where you lazily select policies from some policy tree or something. That is not how things work.

 

[FriendlyFire]

No one says anything when you called German leaders, Nazi concentration camp guards and your rants against just the Germans which seem to be the sole cause of all the problems inside Greece.

Yes Iam joking, the EU has allocated 700Mil euros to Greece to deal with its 60k Refugees and there has been talk in the EU that 160k be fined against non refugee accepting countries to those countries willing to accept refugees. Germany cant even get Greece to carry out reforms, let alone to accept more refugees. While Greece proclaim solidarity its also has a long history an annimosity with its neighbour across the Med. I doubt Greece will be able to take on refugees euromonies or no euromonies

 

[luiz]

@luiz
There is no indication that Merkel's actions and words led to any of the things you claim it led to. It's just that powerful story.


Again, this is technocratic thinking. If one just looks at the numbers it seems unlikely that any Syrian will head back home, because after all, they are better off here in a stable country with a strong economy. If you look beyond the numbers, things aren't quite as clear. We know from other refugee situations (during the Balkan wars for example) that quite many refugees will go back home as soon as possible. Indeed, the number of current refugees already choosing to go home is increasing!

These refugees are human beings. They had a life that they've left behind!

It might be less clear for the "refugees", as you call them, from other places, but it's the government's task to deport these people if they have no good reason to be here. And the government will do that, it's just taking time.

The fact that they are human beings who respond to emotion and perception and not only to cold hard facts is also why Merkel's initial response no doubt drew an enormous additional influx of people.

And yes, there is a very good indication that her actions were directly responsible for a greatly increased influx of people. 2015 saw the number of "refugees" from throughout North Africa and the Middle East skyrocket. Even if we assume that Merkel's decisions had nothing to do with the influx of Syrians, which is debatable, why was there a boom in the influx from everywhere else? Did things suddenly get a lot worse in Morocco or Eritrea or Pakistan? No, people just heard an invitation and acted on it.

As for going back... again, the majority of refugees are young men. It's not like they're leaving behind that much of a life. Young men are and have always been the most mobile and rootless of any demographic. They will not go back, much like the "guest workers" never went back. You're engaging in wishful thinking (or rather, repeating the official wishful thinking of the German government).

 

[emzie]

I feel like this is the second cold war.

 

[FriendlyFire]

Vice Report on Bulgaria, EU was spending Millions of euromonies in closing up the border routes from the border at Greece close up the border in 2014. 137 Mil Euros per year to Bulgaria with allocation of armed forces from EU.

EU already had a refugee problem already
Merkles announcement made the problem worse.

The Irony that was mentioned is that on the one hand EU actively paying for closing up borders, and fortifying fences. While at the same time EU condems the fences and closing of border.
Also the issue of Dublin rule, for a long time never really was addressed, the poorer EU border countries unable to close there borders while being subject to house and fed refugees coming into EU.


Link to video.

 

[Akka]

Yeah if his asylum was denied one year ago what the hell was he still doing in Germany?

Hu, well, it's explicitely written in the OP ?

"He had been given leave to stay temporarily given the situation in his home country and provided with an apartment in Ansbach"

the thing with deporting refugees who break the law is it only highlights that they are second class citizens

Hu, hello, they AREN'T citizen to begin with ? That's the whole point of seeking refugee status instead of, you know, simply being a citizen of the country ?

 

[Old Hippy]

Hu, hello, they AREN'T citizen to begin with ? That's the whole point of seeking refugee status instead of, you know, simply being a citizen of the country ?

my bad, I just thought that if you granted refugee status to someone they would have the right to live in that country and make a life there it just seems dumb that a country would say you can live and work here, but you have none of the rights of citizens, you live and learn

that explains the rush of radicalisations, how can countries be so dumb as to accept refugees and not give them the same rights as citizens, while far right parties are condemning the same refugees. With IS saying they hate you, its a recipe for tragedy.

 

[Akka]

my bad, I just thought that if you granted refugee status to someone they would have the right to live in that country and make a life there

He WAS REFUSED refugee status. FFS, did anyone actually even read past the first sentence ?

it just seems dumb that a country would say you can live and work here, but you have none of the rights of citizens, you live and learn

No it's not. That's the entire definition of "refugee", it's about shelter. If you want to become a citizen... *drumroll* apply for citizenship ! It's like there actually is a specific request for it, unbelievable !

Who would have thought that "refugees" and "citizen" are actually not the same thing. It's like... different concepts and situation and status !
Blowing minds, right ? And that's only a start, next time we'll see how being a wife is different from being a sister, stay tuned !

that explains the rush of radicalisations, how can countries be so dumb as to accept refugees and not give them the same rights as citizens, while far right parties are condemning the same refugees. With IS saying they hate you, its a recipe for tragedy.

Well, maybe countries should just blankedly reject all refugees then ?

 

[Old Hippy]

He WAS REFUSED refugee status. FFS, did anyone actually even read past the first sentence ?

FFS, I was responding to

Government must toughen deportation rules – Bavarian minister

Joachim Herrmann, the Bavarian interior minister, has said that he will push the federal government to tighten rules governing the deportation of asylum seekers who break the law.

and said that if people are allowed to stay in a country, make a life and work it is a dumb idea not to treat them as equals,(i.e. as citizens ) when everybody is so concerned with young males becoming radicalised, if that was written in a misleading way think how Muslims are saying FFS about what they hear there governments saying

it should be noted most terrorist are dead after committing their crime, so it becomes rather pointless, unless you deport all refugees from a country

 

[Falk]

The fact that they are human beings who respond to emotion and perception and not only to cold hard facts is also why Merkel's initial response no doubt drew an enormous additional influx of people.

And yes, there is a very good indication that her actions were directly responsible for a greatly increased influx of people. 2015 saw the number of "refugees" from throughout North Africa and the Middle East skyrocket. Even if we assume that Merkel's decisions had nothing to do with the influx of Syrians, which is debatable, why was there a boom in the influx from everywhere else? Did things suddenly get a lot worse in Morocco or Eritrea or Pakistan? No, people just heard an invitation and acted on it.

As for going back... again, the majority of refugees are young men. It's not like they're leaving behind that much of a life. Young men are and have always been the most mobile and rootless of any demographic. They will not go back, much like the "guest workers" never went back. You're engaging in wishful thinking (or rather, repeating the official wishful thinking of the German government).

No, I'm engaging in boring statistics and a more realistic view of the world.

What boom in the influx from everywhere else? Can you back that up? Because the vast majority of refugees did flee conflict (Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan) or came from countries that "traditionally" have many people trying to migrate to Germany (Albania, Serbia and other Balkan countries). The only other country that saw relatively high refugee numbers was Eritrea, but the situation did get worse there if I am not mistaken.

This sudden influx from "everywhere else" doesn't show in the statistics.

And as I said, we know from the Balkan wars that very many refugees do indeed return to their home countries. If you speak German, google for articles from the late 90s about the "Rückkehr" (return) of Balkan war refugees. And btw, there were many Muslims among those refugees. So the current situation is not actually that novel.

Guest workers are something completely different, they were not refugees. And by the way, many guest workers did indeed go back. It's just that Germany expected pretty much all of them to go which unsurprisingly didn't happen.

And your young man line of argument is self-defeating: Families might be more inclined to stay here after they've spent a couple years here, whereas young single males are indeed less rooted and might find it a good idea to get back to their family and friends once it's safe to do so.

This is not wishful thinking. It's past experiences. I know it's counter-intuitive in this age of hysteria and fear...

And to make this clear: I'm not trying to say that there are no problems and challenges. There are plenty of them and we need to take a strong and principled stance to integrate those refugees who choose to stay here into our society and culture, and that those whose asylum application is not accepted are brought back to their home countries. I'm not some kind of hippie who thinks that all will be well automatically. I just prefer to not play the gut feeling based blame game.

 

[Cheetah]

Could I ask both of you to provide some numbers though? This seems like a relatively easy question to answer, if there are actually numbers for this.

 

[Groff]

No, I'm engaging in boring statistics and a more realistic view of the world.

What boom in the influx from everywhere else? Can you back that up? Because the vast majority of refugees did flee conflict (Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan) or came from countries that "traditionally" have many people trying to migrate to Germany (Albania, Serbia and other Balkan countries). The only other country that saw relatively high refugee numbers was Eritrea, but the situation did get worse there if I am not mistaken.

This sudden influx from "everywhere else" doesn't show in the statistics.

And as I said, we know from the Balkan wars that very many refugees do indeed return to their home countries. If you speak German, google for articles from the late 90s about the "Rückkehr" (return) of Balkan war refugees. And btw, there were many Muslims among those refugees. So the current situation is not actually that novel.

Guest workers are something completely different, they were not refugees. And by the way, many guest workers did indeed go back. It's just that Germany expected pretty much all of them to go which unsurprisingly didn't happen.

And your young man line of argument is self-defeating: Families might be more inclined to stay here after they've spent a couple years here, whereas young single males are indeed less rooted and might find it a good idea to get back to their family and friends once it's safe to do so.

This is not wishful thinking. It's past experiences. I know it's counter-intuitive in this age of hysteria and fear...

And to make this clear: I'm not trying to say that there are no problems and challenges. There are plenty of them and we need to take a strong and principled stance to integrate those refugees who choose to stay here into our society and culture, and that those whose asylum application is not accepted are brought back to their home countries. I'm not some kind of hippie who thinks that all will be well automatically. I just prefer to not play the gut feeling based blame game.

Could I ask both of you to provide some numbers though? This seems like a relatively easy question to answer, if there are actually numbers for this.

As Cheetah said I too would like to see some official numbers.

My family was forced to flee Croatia during the war and we ended up in Bosnia (and we are still here). I can tell you that a huge majority of people that left Bosnia (mostly muslims) do not live or work here. They come once a year to take care of their property (mow the lawn and general housekeeping), usually on their way to the Croatian coast and go back to Germany/Sweden (where most of them live) as soon as possible. They don not want to come back and they do not want their children to come back here (most of the kids can't even speak Serbo-Croatian). They might not be classified as refugees anymore but they certainly haven't come back.

 

[kramerfan86]

It's just a dumb mindset, you tell a person "hey no asylum for you" which presumably means you found something bad in their background like criminal activity or terrorism sympathizing and you tell this bad person they can stick around... For a little while, who knows how long. So now this bad person is resentful because they know they are going to have to leave sometime, and you just leave them to wander around your citizens. Surprised that hasn't backfired before