The Burning Question and Jevon's paradox


See, I had already poked around a bit and couldn't find anything to support the assertion that there is no way to prevent severe environmental damage associated with the same sorts of mining as currently used for coal. Not to mention the enormous difference in scale between coal and REE.

Here's a really helpful PDF that goes into this in some detail:
http://reviewboard.ca/upload/projec...lements_-_Associated_Environmental_Issues.PDF




That's it making the rich even richer and the poor even poorer, lovely how things work out in real life rather than fantasy land, that you are currently living in. What happens in practice is always different from the theory. Basically Renewable energy right now is a sham.
OK, so what I see here are policy problems that aren't the result of the energy source. As a counter, let's look at Denmark:
wiki said:
Wind provides 30% of the electricity generated in Denmark. Denmark is a long-time leader in wind energy, and as of May 2011 Denmark derives 3.1 percent of its Gross Domestic Product from renewable (Clean) energy technology and energy efficiency, or around Euro6.5 billion ($9.4 billion).
Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_in_Denmark

Quite the sham indeed! Since 2004 their population has grown 2% all while their total electricity use has dropped 4%, and their CO2 emissions have fallen by almost 8%. I think this should demonstrate that alternative/sustainable energy isn't in and of itself a problem, but poor policy implementation will always be a problem.

461px-Fossil_fuel_consumption_in_Denmark.svg.png
 
That might be true for now (although if we pay 10ct/kWh for solar power and sell it at 6ct/kWh that is still a net loss). But there were already periods where the price for electricity went negative.
Yes, obviously. But those periods were very rare, and several were due to miscalculations of the grid operators, not pricnciple problems.
I can heartily recommend those data collections for the German electricty production of the last years, some very interesting things in there (both English and German):
http://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/en/renewable-energy-data?set_language=en

Of course, simply continue to expand renewables the same way as it was done in the past, and keep the current structure of the electricity market is not feasable. There need to be fundamental changes, but simply throttling down renewable expansion to next to nothing is about as bad as unlimited expansion via-feed-in tariffs in a merit-order market.
It means basically letting all those past subsidies go to waste.
Wind is already competetive with anything else as far es new constructions are concerned, solar is already competetive with new nuclear (see Hinkley Point for the costs of new nuclear). And both are getting cheaper stilll, while thermal power plants tend to get more expensive.
And we need more renewables, for a multitude of reasons.

At the moment the peak capacity of installed wind and solar power plants in Germany is roughly the same as the peak power consumption in Germany.

In the ISE pdfs are figures showing the combined production of solar and wind, and it gets clear that both are basically complementary. Maximum combined output is about half the total capacity, and those peaks are reched very rarely.

If new plants are built as predicted by the government, solar plant power production alone in 2050 will peak three times as high as (current) consumption - while doing nothing for power production at night. Where is all that power supposed to go?
At times of high production they will be throttled, stored or exported. Renewable peaks tend to be much higher than typical output, so seemingly massive oversupply (by installed capacity) is needed and desired.

At the moment, we can sell our excess power most of the time. But this cannot continue forever. Especially if our neighbors tried to do the same, they would also have surplus power at roughly the same time, so we rely on our neighbors not following us.
In addition, there will be no market for renewable energy in Europe outside Germany when we flood the market with cheap electricity.
The rest of europe doing the same is exactly what is needed for an electricity market where renewables have a high market share.
The larger the grid area, the more smoothed out and dependable intermittent renewables get. Wind strenght has a correlation length of something like 1500 km, cloud cover even less, and every 15° longitude shift the solar peak by one hour.
And Norway would be in principle able to almost single-handedly solve the storage problem for all of central/westen Europe.
Of course we would need much higher cross border grid capacity for this, but we are looking some decades into the future here.
 
And Norway would be in principle able to almost single-handedly solve the storage problem for all of central/westen Europe.

Do you fancy expanding on this? I have always thought that energy storage should be doable and would make renewable's (as well as things like nuclear that cannot be turned on and off easily) vastly better, but I have not come across a technology that can really do it on a large scale.
 
Yep, Germany has turned to coal for power. Obviously I was wrong. :rolleyes:

Yes, you are. If you would have bothered to actually look up the sources of your anti-renewable propagandists, and checked for yourself you might have noticed that.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...stations-in-germany-the-netherlands-and-spain

a few excerpts:

In addition to 2.7GW of lignite capacity that became operational in 2012, a further 8GW of new coal capacity is currently under construction and expected to commission by 2015.
This apparent surge in coal and lignite is not a recent development, and needs to be
understood as being due to highly unusual historical reasons:

- favourable market environment in 2007/8;
- temporary presumption of free carbon allowances for new build plants in Phase III of
the EU ETS
- inability or reluctance of developers to cancel projects when the circumstances changed and when technical problems delayed their build.

Steeply rising capital costs, fierce local and environmental opposition, the priority dispatch for renewables, the economic downturn, falling demand, low wholesale electricity prices and the expectation of high carbon prices in the future make the short- and long-term investment cases for new thermal plants in Germany unattractive. While there are reportedly 2.7GW of coal or lignite projects in development stage, most of them have not advanced for some years, suggesting likely cancellation. Since 2007, four coal and lignite projects have been postponed and a further 22 abandoned as a result of a combination of the reasons stated above

It is our opinion, that there will be no major new unabated coal or lignite projects in Germany for the foreseeable future beyond those currently under construction. Our view appears to be endorsed by the German companies: three majors have very publicly announced that they have no intention of building additional coal-fired power stations in Germany until at least the end of the decade

Oh and the fourth has just announced that it will shut down it's largest lignite strip mine (and attached powerstations) earlier than originally scheduled.

A significant amount of new coal and lignite-fired plant is coming on line in Germany.
2.7GW of lignite plant became operational in 2012 and 8GW of coal plant is currently
under construction. However, they represent the end of a business cycle rather than being part of a longer term trend.
The financial investment decisions on all this new capacity were taken in the period
2006-2008 when the market environment was generally bullish and dark spreads were
high.
...
With this proposition and ageneral bullish environment for new power plants, at one time almost 30GW of new coal projects were being developed.

down to 10GW from 30GW originally planned ...

2.5 No further coal or lignite plant investment in this decade

While 8GW of legacy coal projects are still under construction, there are hardly any new ones in developers’ pipelines. Historically rising capital costs and fierce local and
environmental opposition reduced developers’ appetites but from 2009 onwards, falling
demand, lower electricity prices and the economic downturn, have continued this trend.
Only 2.7GW of coal or lignite projects are reported as being in a development stage as shown in Table 3. Most of them have not advanced significantly in recent years and there is now good cause to doubt any proceeding further.

In comparison to the short pipeline project list stands a long register of planned projects.
A combined capacity of 25.5GW that have been put on hold or postponed (4 projects, 3.4GW) or abandoned (22 projects, 22.1GW) in the last 5 years is shown in Annex B, Table 8 and Annex B, Table 9. Most recently in July 2012, SüdWestStrom and around 100 municipal energy partners have abandoned their plans for a 1.8GW coal power plant at Brunsbüttel as it would not be able to operate economically and there was a lack of a market framework for thermal generation.

So rather than a coal renaissance, it is more likely that those 10GW are the last coal powerstations constructed in Germany for the foreseeable future (the next decades). If that much is commissioned, which is far from clear (ongoing ligitation, some might be mothballed outright due to low revenue prospects)

Spoiler :
coalvre1.png


And this is just a brillant piece of misleading presentation. First of all, it's far from sure that the 10.7 GW mentioned in the article this is based on will indeed go into operation.
Next he did neglect that at the same time 1.8 GW are scheduled to be decommissioned, and the only thing that could prevent this are some new plants NOT coming on-line.
So it's 8.9 GW increase in capacity, at best.
And than he uses a capacity factor of 80% for the conversion to TWh. That's already slightly optimistic for lignite plants, but only 2.1 of those 8.9 GW of effective new capacity will be lignite plants.
Hard coal is running at an average capacity factor of close to 50%.
And those numbers will be coming down with increasing renewable capacity.

The realistic picture would look more like this:

Spoiler :
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Do you fancy expanding on this? I have always thought that energy storage should be doable and would make renewable's (as well as things like nuclear that cannot be turned on and off easily) vastly better, but I have not come across a technology that can really do it on a large scale.

Norway has a tremendous amount of seasonal storage, that could be upgraded at comperatively low cost (compared to any existing storage alternatives) to pumped storage. With capacity of the order of 100 TWh, which equals about 20% of Germanys annual electricity consumption.

Some slides:
http://norwegen.ahk.de/fileadmin/ah...Future_Pumped_Storage_CEDREN_Killingtveit.pdf

More in-depth article
http://www.files.ethz.ch/cepe/Top10/Heineman.pdf
 
Norway has a tremendous amount of seasonal storage, that could be upgraded at comperatively low cost (compared to any existing storage alternatives) to pumped storage. With capacity of the order of 100 TWh, which equals about 20% of Germanys annual electricity consumption.

Some slides:
http://norwegen.ahk.de/fileadmin/ah...Future_Pumped_Storage_CEDREN_Killingtveit.pdf

More in-depth article
http://www.files.ethz.ch/cepe/Top10/Heineman.pdf

Thanks. When I was a kid (quite a while ago) I went to Dinorwig which is a trial of this sort of thing, and I have been disappointed since that it has not taken off. I am glad to see there is at least talk of this sort of technology.
 
Yes, obviously. But those periods were very rare, and several were due to miscalculations of the grid operators, not pricnciple problems.
I can heartily recommend those data collections for the German electricty production of the last years, some very interesting things in there (both English and German):
http://www.ise.fraunhofer.de/en/renewable-energy-data?set_language=en
[...]
In the ISE pdfs are figures showing the combined production of solar and wind, and it gets clear that both are basically complementary. Maximum combined output is about half the total capacity, and those peaks are reched very rarely.

Thank you for those files, quite interesting.

So during the first quarter of 2014, I count 6 incidences where the price went negative, two of them major. 6 days out of 90 is not that rare and this will increase as installed capacity increased. I would argue that miscalculations are at least partly a principle problem, because the weather has some inherent unpredictability that cannot be avoided. If you look at the last incident, wind supplied more than half of the power (more than 70% of capacity, more than the half you claimed), and the contribution from solar was zero. Add more wind turbines and a bit of sun and you are in a situation, where there is a problem, even if you get the calculations right. Note that the day-ahead price was already very low, so even if everything went as predicted, we would still have made a loss, as wind turbine operators still have to be paid more than electricity was worth at the time.

At times of high production they will be throttled, stored or exported. Renewable peaks tend to be much higher than typical output, so seemingly massive oversupply (by installed capacity) is needed and desired.

Exportation is going to be hard if there is no demand for it (ideally one would try to create demand, but that is quite hard and needs a lot of infrastructure). Throttling is neither possible by law nor is it supported by current infrastructure. Storing would be perfect of course, but currently there are no capacities and I am not aware of any large scale projects that would add significant amounts of storage in the mid future.

The rest of europe doing the same is exactly what is needed for an electricity market where renewables have a high market share.
The larger the grid area, the more smoothed out and dependable intermittent renewables get. Wind strenght has a correlation length of something like 1500 km, cloud cover even less, and every 15° longitude shift the solar peak by one hour.
And Norway would be in principle able to almost single-handedly solve the storage problem for all of central/westen Europe.
Of course we would need much higher cross border grid capacity for this, but we are looking some decades into the future here.

1500 km is already quite a long distance for the grid and extending grid capacity seems to be met with resistance everywhere. The day unfortunately has a correlation length on the scale of the globe, which won't be covered by a grid. And even areas so far apart that they're uncorrelated have a non-negligible chance of being with no wind or sun at the same time. So without gigantic storage capacities, a grid spanning Europe would still have to partly rely on fossil fuels or nuclear power. Building those storage capacities, even if Norway could do it, takes a lot of time. It might be a few decades until we really need them, but we need to start building them now.

I don't think it is impossible to have a large part of our electricity to be supplied by renewable energy, but it is a hard task and we seriously need to put less emphasis on power generation and start investing in the infrastructure necessary to support it. Generation of renewable energies has been quite a success so far, but that was the easy part. The hard part is still to come, and if people won't accept that renewable energies might require a power line in their back yard and we don't revise some of our more stupid policies, we will indeed just burn a lot of natural gas in the future.

Going back to the climate: Even if we succeed, and manage to generate electricity close to carbon neutral in a few decades, there is still a problem: By then we will have exceeded the 450ppm by quite some amount and we might still emit a large amount of CO2 for heating our homes or driving trucks.
 
Well, the end goal needs to be carbon neutral electricity. Even if we don't get away from fossil fuels for transportation, that will really buy us some time and vastly reduce the impact. Now, I've lived with electric heat for some time, and so the idea of 'needing' fossil fuels for building heat is a bit strange to me, but since my local powerplant burns oil to produce electricity, it's not an outrageous thing for me to wrap my head around.

The goal, I think, is to maximize economic growth while tapering off the fossil fuels. Now, (as the book points out) "increasing efficiency" just leads to increased consumption (Jevons paradox), but we cannot get continued economic growth without increasing efficiency. It just comes to a simple fact that not all the carbon can be taken up from the ground. Luckily, each person (those concerned with AGW or not) can help chip away at the problem. I mean, increased efficiency is basically a goal for everyone already.
 
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