The European Project: the future of the EU.

[AdrienIer]

The real problem is the french are addicts to the nanny state. There is no other path than for france to follow in argentina's footsteps in a few years: they will never voluntarily go into rehab

I'm so happy that this is never, ever, ever going to happen.

 

[bc1]

it will happen much sooner than that: france is trapped in a public debt spiral, as lenders ask for ever higher interest rates, debt refinancing plus deficit spending becomes ever more expensive and things have to blow up at some point

 

[danjuno]

it will happen much sooner than that: france is trapped in a public debt spiral, as lenders ask for ever higher interest rates, debt refinancing plus deficit spending becomes ever more expensive and things have to blow up at some point

Does the US actually top Europe in anything besides shootings?

 

[Akka]

Fun fact, USA has actually exactly the same percentage of debt than France (114 % of GNP).
Another fun fact : what increased significantly debt in France wasn't "more spending on nanny state" (which actually decreased) but "worse tax policy by taxing less wealthy people".

Of course, these facts go directly contrary to what some would prefer to believe so I expect these facts will be ignored, because Macron is actually the poster child of these economic policies they would like to implement, and it just happens that they are disastrous and causing the very problems they claim to fix.
BTW, you want a nanny state, there is the Scandinavian countries, which have among the lowest debt in Europe. Go figure.

 

[bc1]

Other fun facts: france total tax to gdp ratio is above 45% while us's is only 27%. Yes it's possible for france to raise it back above 48% like before macron, but that won't solve the 5%+ GDP state deficit nor the looming pension crisis with boomers retiring, shrinking worker base etc.

 

[Verbose]

Fun fact, USA has actually exactly the same percentage of debt than France (114 % of GNP).
Another fun fact : what increased significantly debt in France wasn't "more spending on nanny state" (which actually decreased) but "worse tax policy by taxing less wealthy people".

Of course, these facts go directly contrary to what some would prefer to believe so I expect these facts will be ignored, because Macron is actually the poster child of these economic policies they would like to implement, and it just happens that they are disastrous and causing the very problems they claim to fix.
BTW, you want a nanny state, there is the Scandinavian countries, which have among the lowest debt in Europe. Go figure.

Never knew what to make of the "nanny" slur.

Also because the Nordic countries operate welfare rather differently, if one lifts the bonnet. Danes do "flexicurity" with hiring-and-firing almost US-easy, but the world's highest taxes to support people. Sweden does not, is by Nordic standards a tax-haven, and gets by on entrepreneurialism and instant tech-upgrading, while accepting higher unemployment and growing income inequalities (if from historically low levels). Norway currently has a debate about whether their oil-wealth has ruined the country? – but rich they are, and able to pay generously to support people. While Finland looks rather a bit like fx France, not yet at a govt debt rate of 100% of GDP, but projected 85% for 2025, and rising, with endemic budget deficits. (Denmark is at 36%, Norway 55%, Sweden 34% general govt debt rates.)

 

[Akka]

Other fun facts: france total tax to gdp ratio is above 45% while us's is only 27%. Yes it's possible for france to raise it back above 48% like before macron, but that won't solve the 5%+ GDP state deficit nor the looming pension crisis with boomers retiring, shrinking worker base etc.

Which is nearly exactly the same ratio as Denmark, which has the second-lowest debt in Europe and is considered the most business-friendly country in the world (yep, above USA).
Also, high-tax countries happen to have better Gini coefficient (unlike the USA, which has downright third-world countries level of inequalities). Once again the wet dreams of economic feudalism doesn't look like the actual solution rather than the root problem.

 

[bc1]

i don't get your point: if the danes are keeping their debt in check fine but how does that help france handle theirs and avoid argentina's or greece's fate ? the high french tax to gdp ratio just shows there is little margin left to increase state revenue without crashing their economy

 

[Verbose]

i don't get your point: if the danes are keeping their debt in check fine but how does that help france handle theirs and avoid argentina's or greece's fate ? the high french tax to gdp ratio just shows there is little margin left to increase state revenue without crashing their economy

The French don't see the US turn towards big-digital-tech to produce more GDP, while parking the profits from it with a dwindling number of mega-rich techbros, as much of a solution.

Macron has looked at and talked a fair bit about the Danish model as something maybe useful for France. Getting the fractured French political landscape to agree on any particular course of action is a matter of trying to herd cats otoh.

 

[bc1]

... parking the profits...

that's a key misconception: us techbros are reinvesting profits (even tomorrow's) and burning cash like crazy
it's the age old seed problem: plant or eat ? no one will ever agree on the right balance, but push things too far and reality strikes back hard like it did in argentina and greece

 

[Akka]

i don't get your point: if the danes are keeping their debt in check fine but how does that help france handle theirs and avoid argentina's or greece's fate ? the high french tax to gdp ratio just shows there is little margin left to increase state revenue without crashing their economy

=>

Of course, these facts go directly contrary to what some would prefer to believe so I expect these facts will be ignored, because Macron is actually the poster child of these economic policies they would like to implement, and it just happens that they are disastrous and causing the very problems they claim to fix.

I spelled it out already. The "let's fix the debt by reducing taxes, slashing social benefits and favouring big companies" IS what has been used the last 8 years. Its only result has been to WORSEN the situation.
Just like the USA have the exact same level of debt despite being a social security nightmare and a big companies paradise. Man, maybe it's not coincidental.

 

[EvaDK]

i don't get your point: if the danes are keeping their debt in check fine but how does that help france handle theirs and avoid argentina's or greece's fate ? the high french tax to gdp ratio just shows there is little margin left to increase state revenue without crashing their economy

You can't really claim that the 'nanny state' - as you put it - is at the root of the problems that France is dealing with. Some nanny states are doing fine with strong economies, high taxes, low debt and low unemployment. France needs reforms and they know it, yet some refuse to admit the state of things and swallow the medicine.

Denmark has undergone countless reforms since the mid 1980s; taxation, pension, labor market, healthcare, immigration, welfare, energy, public administration. It's a very different country now, compared to when I was a kid. Danish governments did something that benefits the Danes greatly today; they paid off the debt in good times with a percentage of the budget surplus. Didn't matter if it was a liberal, conservative or social democratic government coalition in power; they stayed on track paying down the debt. Also, the profits from the oil & natural gas adventure in the Danish part of the North Sea, is being used primarily for the green energy transition and upgrading train infrastructure.

 

[bc1]

@Akka : yes macron failed to decrease spending more than reducing taxes, making the debt problem worse. But the french state debt problem is over 3 decades old.

@EvaDK : the root of the problem is not balancing the books for the past 30+ years. The nanny state simply makes it more difficult to do, as people easily become addicted to high levels of state assistance. And now it's fast becoming too late to avoid a fate like greece or argentina's.

 

[Akka]

@Akka : yes macron failed to decrease spending more than reducing taxes, making the debt problem worse. But the french state debt problem is over 3 decades old.

Yes, but it only worsened by using the solutions you support. That's my point.

@EvaDK : the root of the problem is not balancing the books for the past 30+ years. The nanny state simply makes it more difficult to do, as people easily become addicted to high levels of state assistance. And now it's too late to avoid a fate like greece or argentina's.

You seem to refuse to register the facts that were already pointed because they don't fit your narrative, so let me repeat them :
The USA, which is the very opposite of a nanny state and is going full speed with what you recommend, has the same level of debt (114% of GNP) and WORSE deficit (6,5 % vs 5,8 %) than France.
So for the third time : your solutions are WORSENING the problem, not SOLVING it. Will I need to repeat it a fourth time before you start addressing it rather than just droning on by repeating the same BS while staying deaf and blind to any fact proving you wrong ?

 

[Joij21]

I think it's a matter of France simply having an un-innovative economy compared to other welfare states.

In order to have welfare states be sustainable you need to have some kind of wealth generating cash cow type industry. Norway & Denmark have access to North Sea oil, Denmark in particular is home to one of the world's largest shipping giants (Maersk), and Sweden & Germany are host to a lot of high tech manufacturing (Germany), software development (Sweden) respectively.

What does France have other than wine, cheeses, and tourism? Tourism isn't gonna work if fat ass Americans have a devaluing dollar and can't spend as much on travel anymore, and cheese & wine exportation will be quite limited profits wise with a tariff regime imposed by angry orange man.

Remember Greece has an economy very similar to France (agricultural cash crops, tourism based).

 

[bc1]

Yes, but it only worsened by using the solutions you support. That's my point.

how did you come to believe i thought there was a solution ? it's the exact opposite: i believe argentina / greece like crash is fast becoming unavoidable

The USA, which is the very opposite of a nanny state and is going full speed with what you recommend, has the same level of debt (114% of GNP) and WORSE deficit (6,5 % vs 5,8 %) than France.

the usa may not be better disciplined than france, but it's situation is very different. For starters, it could easily raise taxes thanks to its low tax to gdp ratio and balance its books (something you would clearly support but that won't happen with maga in power). Second it can simply print money, and screw dollar holding foreigners into susidizing the us. Last there is simply no comparison between the dynamism and strength of the us economy with france's, even the gdp per capita is more than 2x.

 

[AdrienIer]

I think it's a matter of France simply having an un-innovative economy compared to other welfare states.

In order to have welfare states be sustainable you need to have some kind of wealth generating cash cow type industry. Norway & Denmark have access to North Sea oil, Denmark in particular is home to one of the world's largest shipping giants (Maersk), and Sweden & Germany are host to a lot of high tech manufacturing (Germany), software development (Sweden) respectively.

What does France have other than wine, cheeses, and tourism? Tourism isn't gonna work if fat ass Americans have a devaluing dollar and can't spend as much on travel anymore, and cheese & wine exportation will be quite limited profits wise with a tariff regime imposed by angry orange man.

Remember Greece has an economy very similar to France (agricultural cash crops, tourism based).

Also some of our strengths are countered by various factors that need reform (and not just french reforms unfortunately). For example the european energy market is forcing the price of electricity to go up in France just as France is producing very cheap electricity. We invest in energy yet don't reap the benefits.

 

[bc1]

What does France have other than wine, cheeses, and tourism?

agriculture is less than 2%

 

[Snowygerry]

(...) , even the gdp per capita is more than 2x.

Likely because you all work 70 hrs. a week - nothing to be proud of

 

[bc1]

Also some of our strengths are countered by various factors that need reform (and not just french reforms unfortunately). For example the european energy market is forcing the price of electricity to go up in France just as France is producing very cheap electricity. We invest in energy yet don't reap the benefits.

good point but hardly relevant to the public debt crisis