The European Project: the future of the EU.

[Kyriakos]

Well, the whole 90s prophecy thing is lame, but what can one expect when nearing war. Still, it sends a very stupid message, given obviously no winning, but not even a losing side would end up losing territory and having sanctions against it (how does that even work? I mean one could get losing territory and the other side getting sanctions, but not both ills on the same side ).

 

[r16]

uhm , mistakenly posted before finishing . Made me see the additional two posts . Oh-kay , some confidence increasing measure then . When ı became the hobby of these retirees , you know , like "raising" this 30 plus dude to do some good , ı would be suddenly smacked with stuff out of the blue . Risking weeks supply of sleep , because if she wasn't like older now , it would be months . Laughter first , as ı would be reported as ... Then , when the laughter died , denial , because ı am this ugly nothing . Rejection and cursing because Jews! ı would be denying , they would call me a liar behind my back , it would take ages for them to decide she just wouldn't , not everyone goes to bed because money and finally they would remember ı am poor , despite all the allegations . Yeah , it is related to me only by the unfortunate coincidence and yes , ı only know her name , because ı went through 30 pages of a thread to find the specific picture . With the totally true thing that there is nothing between me and her , and the bets are that it will be forgotten within 10 days or not . Yeah , another opportunity to curse the Stuntwoman . (Hers took a year or more because she is Jewish and ı am called one like every week)

 

[Kyriakos]

Ok, I think the above is considerably stranger than the aforementioned prophecy.
So I guess it helps

 

[Hrothbern]

I wonder
did we ever had on this forum a RL war in which all the involved countries had forum members ?

 

[Kyriakos]

Well, yes. Wasn't there a poster from Ukraine?

 

[EnglishEdward]

uhm , mistakenly posted before finishing . Made me see the additional two posts . Oh-kay , some confidence increasing measure then . When ı became the hobby of these retirees , you know , like "raising" this 30 plus dude to do some good , ı would be suddenly smacked with stuff out of the blue . Risking weeks supply of sleep , because if she wasn't like older now , it would be months . Laughter first , as ı would be reported as ... Then , when the laughter died , denial , because ı am this ugly nothing . Rejection and cursing because Jews! ı would be denying , they would call me a liar behind my back , it would take ages for them to decide she just wouldn't , not everyone goes to bed because money and finally they would remember ı am poor , despite all the allegations . Yeah , it is related to me only by the unfortunate coincidence and yes , ı only know her name , because ı went through 30 pages of a thread to find the specific picture . With the totally true thing that there is nothing between me and her , and the bets are that it will be forgotten within 10 days or not . Yeah , another opportunity to curse the Stuntwoman . (Hers took a year or more because she is Jewish and ı am called one like every week)
View attachment 567801

Now I understand; it seems that the ultimate purpose of the

Re: The European Project: the future of the EU.

is to simply re-host the suspended Babe thread.

 

[Kyriakos]

The realization came too late, EE, it cannot be stopped now. Re-establishing a babe thread in CFC is actually behind the pending war in the Aegean as well.
I cannot reveal much more even now, but in another plane what is here manifested as CFC is an actual living organism, involved in an ongoing 50000 year battle on comet x35503002-334. And the balance has just tipped to one of the sides.

 

[Hrothbern]

Before we get overwhelmed by a Trojan war...

Here an article fresh from the press on the French book from François Heisbourg: " Le Temps des prédateurs; La Chine, les États-Unis, La Russie et nous. "
Translated: The era of the predators China, US, Russia and us [Europe]

Europe is being bullied

It's 2049, and big party in Paris: China is celebrating the centenary of the People's Republic for seven days in an air-conditioned "golden triangle" in the center. Except for Chinese tourists, only French people who do not wear a face cover, have a bionic chip and score at least 95 out of 100 points in the social credit system for good behavior are allowed in that triangle. These demands have been in place since an attack by the anti-capitalist Black Blocs, in 2028, on a fashion temple on the Champs-Elysées. Dozens of Chinese customers were killed. In response, China stated that it would henceforth regulate security in the triangle of Champs-Elysées, Avenue Montaigne and Avenue George V. France refused. But China shut down all French 5G networks. Hospitals closed. Patients died like flies. Meanwhile, Chinese elite troops took over the principality of Monaco.
This unpleasant future scenario comes from the new book by the French-Luxembourg foreign and security expert François Heisbourg, Le Temps des prédateurs; La Chine, les États-Unis, La Russie et nous. Wanted? He doesn't think so. He fears that Europe will fall prey to the ruthless geopolitical ambitions of China, the US and Russia. "If history doesn't repeat itself," he writes, "it will avenge itself by turning yesterday's European predators into today's prey."

With the royal snapshots in Greece and tourists from Spain who did not want to be quarantined, the Netherlands already had enough trouble this week. But let's see what else happened in Europe. Heisbourg has a point. Europe is being bullied. Things are rumbling along the European external borders.
First of all, the Chinese Foreign Minister traveled through Western Europe this week. He wants our governments to contract Huawei. France and Great Britain have said no. Now we get the thumbscrews tightened: China wants to separate us from the US. European irritation about this pushy business is growing, even after top-heavy Chinese self-promotion in the corona crisis and the increasingly militant actions of some Chinese ambassadors who criticize host countries “as if we are in a state of war”, Heisbourg says.

Donald Trump calls us a "foe" (enemy) and is sabotaging European companies in every way. Because of the Republican convention, he was too busy this week to bully us. However, the USS Seawolf suddenly appeared near Tromsø, a super-advanced submarine worth 3 billion dollars. Meanwhile, the Swedish army hastily brought reinforcements to Gotland, in the Baltic Sea. The Baltic region is on extreme alert for the first time since the Cold War: Russia and Belarus are conducting military exercises on the Suwalki corridor from Belarus to Kaliningrad. Russia can cut off Poland from the Baltic states in one go.
Then there was Turkey, which does not appear in Heisbourg's book but now taunts Greece with drilling on the Greek continental shelf. The EU is militarily powerless. NATO cannot do anything, because Greece and Turkey are in it. So Athens drummed up France, Israel, Egypt and the Emirates for an anti-Turkish front. According to the German minister Heiko Maas, who attempted to mediate, everyone plays "with fire". One accident and it's war.

Heisbourg does not believe in appeasement with Russia or China, because they want us on our knees. Europe is an economic giant that dictates standards worldwide. But militarily it cannot defend itself against three predators. That is why we must keep working with the Americans, Heisbourg says, at least militarily. Despite Trump's populist excesses, they are closer to us. Washington is seeking support against China. This should not prevent us from doing business with China. In fact, the weight of a powerful, reformed NATO will boost our negotiating position in Beijing.

If in doubt, read Heisbourg's scenarios for Berlin and Warsaw in 2049. Painful, but recommended reading for what promises to be a hectic autumn.

https://www.nrc.nl/nieuws/2020/08/28/europa-wordt-gebullied-a4010138

I think that after the collapse of the Soviet Union we got caught up a bit too much by all the turmoil in the Middle East including the Islam threat, war on terror... and behind that smoke we did not quite see clearly enough what was happening behind the smoke.
Our national governments in the last couple of decades no longer that much legitimised by coherent political programs with or without compromises.... and since many years only deriving legitimacy of decisions by the urgency of crisisses.
Reactive governing already hurting the domestics... but really not that suitable in a world where China and Russia are in the political position to apply long term strategies and the US so strong that their erratic colds are for Europe a flu.

I think Heisburg is a bit OTT, but we cannot continue to ignore these developments as well.

 

[r16]

Now I understand; it seems that the ultimate purpose of the

Re: The European Project: the future of the EU.

is to simply re-host the suspended Babe thread.

thanks for failing to get to entire purpose of the post . Which is of course to sow doubts in Athens , down to more graspable , as it were , levels . Because am a fool and not real and a fool and if ı was to have to have a T-65 , ı could personally destroy the entire Greek Airforce in a single day , including the lunch break . lnstead they can argue that the only possible explanations of the evident confidence are either we know something that they don't or Jews! (to whom Greeks once lost an entire empire , if you were to go fool to examine) . And thanks to your post , they can also add another ... That London sees New Turkey as its most valuable colony and Albion Perfide and all that jazz . Considering BBC threatened UAE and Egypt with how deadly drones are these days , this week or the last . Rest assured that you might have saved lives tonight .

 

[innonimatu]

What passes for french foreign experts, or the promoted "public intellectuals" in general now, is truly pathetic. Elite chinese troops in Monaco, really?
There was a time when they were honest, if often wrong. Now they knowingly produce silly propaganda attempting to shore up a crumbling imperial project that never really delivered.

 

[r16]

so , the radio tells that the Greeks have budgeted an emergency 10 billion Euros . Uhm , not yet an exact breakdown , but it is expected France will get most of the contracts . Egypt , still being the most inclined Arab country to think far ahead , has immediately offered its Rafale contract to Greece , Cairo's deliveries postponed . Macron is sending the French flagship to the Mediteranean on a "special mission" , fully loaded for war ! Because some country must get most of the contracts . Confidence increasing measure has been a pain , to compansate can ı now sink Charles de Gaulle ?

 

[Hrothbern]

A background article on natural gas in the Mediterranean and players gaming each other.

One of the conclusions is that Turkey, needing gas, is cornered by all players including Israel, Egypt, Jordan and Palestine and driven into the tension of a US wanting nobody to buy Russian gas.
Another conclusion is that the EU has a delicate situation where natural gas, with a lower CO2 footprint than oil-coal, is still very much needed for the base load energy demand of the transition period, but is undervalued as needed in the public opinion and political realities.

As a side note from me: it will be interesting to see whether Merkel will slow down the plan to close nuclear plants.

The absence of the previously noisy United States is making itself felt all over the world and is bringing dormant conflict back to life. Without a dominant power that quickly suppresses regional ambitions with a credible threat, old and new conflicts easily flare up. The domestic chaos created by the corona crisis in many countries makes this period even more susceptible to risky foreign adventures. Especially if the potential referees themselves are fiddling with rearranging regional relations, or too busy with domestic problems.
The skirmishes between India and China, China's ambitions for power in its own region and - closer to home - the European Union's intricate relationship with Turkey, Russia and the US fit into the picture of dormant conflicts flaring up. Sometimes, intentionally or unintentionally, energy suddenly plays a leading role.
We see this in the increasingly complicated and with more politically peppered Nordstream 2 dossier, the pipeline to transport gas from Russia to Germany. And we see that in the battle over the possibly gas-rich territorial waters between Greece and Turkey. Germany is increasingly in the position to (temporarily) call off the commissioning of the Nordstream 2 pipeline at the very last moment. While the EU is committed to a successful Green Deal and tries to organize the flight to the front, it is often forgotten to mention that natural gas must indeed accommodate the transition from one energy system to another. But for many, transition fuel natural gas has become the backguard. This makes gas relations even more difficult, because gas is politically a thing of the past.

Relationship with Russia
For example, the German retirement of nuclear energy and coal in the next 15 years without a reliable gas supply is difficult to imagine, especially as long as the North-South electricity connections are not in order. The route through Ukraine and now Belarus adds additional political risk to the already deteriorating relationship between Germany and Russia. Due to internal divisions and different interests, the EU is struggling to get the gas relationship with Russia into calmer waters. It also opens the door to outside interference to conduct regional politics via the gas dossier.
In addition to the problems surrounding Nordstream 2, more gas unrest has arisen on the southeastern side of the EU in recent weeks. Gas relations with Turkey as a transit country - once the dream gas corridor for bringing Turkmen and Azerbaijani gas to the EU - had already been seriously disrupted. Of these earlier plans, only the Trans-Anatolian gas pipeline (TANAP) to Italy has come. The rest of these plans have largely died in political ugliness.

The discovery of gas in the Eastern Mediterranean and especially south of Cyprus has sparked long-standing conflicts over the territorial waters of Turkey and the Turkish part of Cyprus, which is recognized only by Turkey. At stake are the potential gas reserves in the east of the Mediterranean, south of Cyprus. It may not even be the potential gas reserves themselves that are re-igniting the conflict, it is much more about how the gas is brought to market.

Isolation Turkey
Egypt and Israel have joined forces and are exporting liquefied gas (LNG) to the world market. But recent major discoveries have led to new plans for a pipeline to Greece and then further into the EU. Turkey is thereby skipped and that hurts. Especially since the Turkish gas market has grown considerably in recent years and has become quite dependent on imports from Russia. The formation of the EastMed Gas Forum early this year by Cyprus, Egypt, Greece, Israel, Italy, Jordan and the Palestinian Territories has further isolated Turkey. As a cat in the corner, Turkey tries to attract some of the potential gas flows, so that the origin of gas imports for Turkey can become somewhat more balanced. The heavy reliance on Russian imports earned Turkey, like Germany, unpleasant American attention in December 2019.
With America's hot breath on its neck, the EU must find a way out for both flaring conflicts. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's statement that she heads the most geopolitical Commission may take on new meaning given the complex relations within the EU and with neighboring countries. Instead of shaping the geopolitical future itself, the EU seems to be becoming a plaything.

The economic consequences of the corona crisis are dire everywhere and are already causing enough headaches. A major crisis in the gas dossier could easily fuel centrifugal forces in the EU. Together with the European Council, the Commission should keep all the frogs in the wheelbarrow while ensuring that there are no accidents in terms of security of gas supply in the long transition to another energy system.

With a policy aimed at gas as a transition fuel, it was still possible to talk to the various parties in terms of common interest. But now that gas is seen by many countries in the unspoken role of back-guard, it is precisely its unpredictability that leads to unexpected risks.

Coby van der Linde is director of the Clingendael International Energy Program (CIEP) and (part-time) professor of geopolitics and energy at the University of Groningen. Reply via expert@fd.nl.

https://fd.nl/opinie/1356575/eu-moet-leiderschap-tonen-om-regionale-gasconflicten-te-temperen

 

[Kyriakos]

A background article on natural gas in the Mediterranean and players gaming each other.

One of the conclusions is that Turkey, needing gas, is cornered by all players including Israel, Egypt, Jordan and Palestine and driven into the tension of a US wanting nobody to buy Russian gas.
Another conclusion is that the EU has a delicate situation where natural gas, with a lower CO2 footprint than oil-coal, is still very much needed for the base load energy demand of the transition period, but is undervalued as needed in the public opinion and political realities.

As a side note from me: it will be interesting to see whether Merkel will slow down the plan to close nuclear plants.

Altered clown maps (& now flags)

This is apparently the makeshift flag of "Turkish-European relations", whatever that means
Projected for a while in the Eu parliament meeting (via satellite) with the representative of Turkey.

Also, the friendly country of Turkey, still in theory candidate state to be part of the Eu, now threatens to take over some greek islands cause it thinks it is their protector (ala what it thought it was in Cyprus). Those islands are moreover inhabited.
Always fun to see this braindead Eu do nothing - apart from France, which does stuff cause it wants to secure its own interests in the med, and won't allow some oriental state to stand in its way.
Still better than the nothing the rest of the Eu is doing.

 

[r16]

what blasphemy ! France donates you 8 Rafale planes that supposedly took part in the attack you personally liked so much , you know , the one on the airbase ! All you have to buy 10 brand new !

and yes , expect more heartbreak , too . Your TV channels are always reported here as so much in awe of all the cool stuff New Turkey produces !

 

[Hrothbern]

what blasphemy ! France donates you 8 Rafale planes that supposedly took part in the attack you personally liked so much , you know , the one on the airbase ! All you have to buy 10 brand new !

and yes , expect more heartbreak , too . Your TV channels are always reported here as so much in awe of all the cool stuff New Turkey produces !

Has the Rafale enough serious real life combat experience ?
I mean against other modern fighters and missile defense systems ?
Or is some exercising needed ?
The main feature so it seems of the Middle East.

 

[Hrothbern]

Erdogan is still on the road of spontaneous self-combustion of his position:

Moody's downgrades Turkey's rating and warns of a possible currency crisis
Turkey's credit judgment has been pushed even deeper into the junk segment by Moody's. The rating agency warned of a potential currency crisis and lowered its rating of the country from B1 to B2, the lowest rating it ever gave Turkey.

A B2 credit rating is five steps below the investment grade safe segment and is comparable to Egypt, Jamaica and Rwanda. The company maintains a negative outlook for the rating and said the tax situation could deteriorate faster than currently expected.

"It is increasingly likely that Turkey's external vulnerabilities will turn into a currency crisis," Moody's analysts said in a report Friday.

GDP growth above anything else
Moody's, which last lowered Turkey's rating more than a year ago, now rates the country one level below the S&P Global Ratings and two levels below Fitch Ratings. For the July 2016 coup attempt against President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey achieved investment grade scores with two of the three major credit rating agencies.

Turkey's reputation with investors suffers from Erdogan's approach to prioritizing growth above all else and refusing to raise interest rates. In order to keep the growth of the economy going as much as possible and to provide companies with credit cheaply, interest rates must remain very low.

As a result, investors are losing confidence and withdrawing from Turkey, creating a scarcity of foreign currencies and constant pressure on the lira exchange rate.

"your ratings don't matter"
The Turkish economy is on the rise and not currently declining, but "they are lowering our ratings again," Erdogan said in Istanbul on Saturday after the Moody's announcement. He added, 'do what you want to do, your ratings don't matter.'

https://fd.nl/economie-politiek/135...ije-en-waarschuwt-voor-mogelijke-valutacrisis

 

[Kyriakos]

Erdogan is still on the road of spontaneous self-combustion of his position:

I don't think this matters much to Erdo's voters. Turkey isn't a society similar to the known european ones, where you will see dissent and criticism. Virtually all media are controlled by the ruling party and as for the population it seems they care more about imagining some great future where they will have added lands to Turkey, rather than notice what is currently going on.
Which is why, long-term, Turkey cannot co-exist with its neighbors, unless part of it forms Kurdistan and so changes the sense of supposed manifest destiny to expand in land or sea.

I do notice though, Hrothbern, that you didn't care to write your view as to the Eu not doing anything while a member state (or two, Cyprus is also a state there) is threatened with invasion (occupying islands) and war.

If it wasn't for France needing to control the med gas trade and very publicly presenting itself as a major power next to 2nd tier power Turkey, I am sure there would already have been war between Greece and Turkey. Not that it is impossible for it to happen even with France in the game, cause Erdogan is unlikely to shut up and people should be reminded it isn't just him but virtually everyone in his government and coalition speaking of war and taking stuff on a daily basis.
Then again his enemy party, eg the one run by Davutoglu (former PM iirc, or foreign minister of imperialism) is in no way having less aspirations. If anything it asks for all the same things.

 

[Hrothbern]

I don't think this matters much to Erdo's voters. Turkey isn't a society similar to the known european ones, where you will see dissent and criticism. Virtually all media are controlled by the ruling party and as for the population it seems they care more about imagining some great future where they will have added lands to Turkey, rather than notice what is currently going on.
Which is why, long-term, Turkey cannot co-exist with its neighbors, unless part of it forms Kurdistan and so changes the sense of supposed manifest destiny to expand in land or sea.

I do notice though, Hrothbern, that you didn't care to write your view as to the Eu not doing anything while a member state (or two, Cyprus is also a state there) is threatened with invasion (occupying islands) and war.

If it wasn't for France needing to control the med gas trade and very publicly presenting itself as a major power next to 2nd tier power Turkey, I am sure there would already have been war between Greece and Turkey. Not that it is impossible for it to happen even with France in the game.

Did you ever play chess Kyr ?

And if so... did you develop your horses, bishops, Queen first ?...hopping all over first ?

Or... quite another approach... did you first gain control with pawn moves and using your heavier pieces behind and around the positional gained ground ?

As long as Greece is able to keep its head cool Erdogan can never risk to be the first to start real acts of war because he will be toast if that happens.
And as long as Greece keeps its head cool... and Erdogan wriggles around filling up one hole by creating the next bigger hole... everything goes like a charm... and there will always come a moment that the oligarch sub-layer of Turkey decides to change its face.
My guess is that the Greek government is able to understand positional play but needs or sees it as opportune to keep the sentiments at elevated temperature for domestic purposes.

 

[Kyriakos]

Did you ever play chess Kyr ?

And if so... did you develop your horses, bishops, Queen first ?...hopping all over first ?

Or... quite another approach... did you first gain control with pawn moves and using your heavier pieces behind and around the positional gained ground ?

As long as Greece is able to keep its head cool Erdogan can never risk to be the first to start real acts of war because he will be toast if that happens.
And as long as Greece keeps its head cool... and Erdogan wriggles around filling up one hole by creating the next bigger hole... everything goes like a charm... and there will always come a moment that the oligarch sub-layer of Turkey decides to change its face.
My guess is that the Greek government is able to understand positional play but needs or sees it as opportune to keep the sentiments at elevated temperature for domestic purposes.

They don't need to fire first. Recall that italian drilling ship which had to leave due to turkish warships near it?
The point is to be able to actually make use of the gas, not just prevent the other side from stealing it.
And there isn't much positional play here - Greece just had to spend billions to buy new weapons. Meanwhile, you can play chess in the north

 

[Hrothbern]

They don't need to fire first. Recall that italian drilling ship which had to leave due to turkish warships near it?
The point is to be able to actually make use of the gas, not just prevent the other side from stealing it.
And there isn't much positional play here - Greece just had to spend billions to buy new weapons. Meanwhile, you can play chess in the north

Sometimes you need to get hit first before you can hit back
as long as you avoid taking the first hit you can get bullied


And what a stupid decision to buy additional military on top what was already in the pipeline.
You are already above 2% of GDP military spending and are as economy in desperate need of upgrading and expanding that economy.
Or was that the deal with Macron ?
Macron fast in reacting in the arena and a bit more vocal to get orders for its domestic military industry with Airbus in problems ?
Never heard of the military spending debt trap.?
Mali is an excellent example.
But the former Soviet-Union probably more well-known.