The European Project: the future of the EU.

[Kyriakos]

Sometimes you need to get hit first before you can hit back
as long as you avoid taking the first hit you can get bullied


And what a stupid decision to buy additional military on top what was already in the pipeline.
You are already above 2% of GDP military spending and are as economy in desperate need of upgrading and expanding that economy.
Or was that the deal with Macron ?
Macron fast in reacting in the arena and a bit more vocal to get orders for its domestic military industry with Airbus in problems ?
Never heard of the military spending debt trap.?
Mali is an excellent example.
But the former Soviet-Union probably more well-known.

A stupid move surely not having anything to do with the Eu doing nothing to force Turkey to back down, right?
Why do you think the new weapons were bought? Cause they look good?
And while Macron obviously wanted to sell, he cares about Libya far too much to allow Turkey to control anything there. Secondarily there is the prospective gas pipeline from Israel-Cyprus-Greece-Italy to the Eu.

 

[Hrothbern]

A stupid move surely not having anything to do with the Eu doing nothing to force Turkey to back down, right?
Why do you think the new weapons were bought? Cause they look good?
And while Macron obviously wanted to sell, he cares about Libya far too much to allow Turkey to control anything there. Secondarily there is the prospective gas pipeline from Israel-Cyprus-Greece-Italy to the Eu.

You fully ignore the positional play by the EU
perhaps you don't understand it... perhaps you do not want to understand it
your reality is filled with statements of strongman and semi-strongman + military stuff.
Turkey is the party in desperate need of natural gas as I already outlined in post #852. Turkey needs to lessen the import for the trade balance to protect the Lira and needs less geopolitical dependency on Russia.
And from the time I was regularely in Turkey... I know how important gas supply is for Turkey... one of the many hope straws of Turkish business community already before the GFC

Why do you think the new weapons were bought? Cause they look good?

You cannot win alone from Turkey. Just cause a lot of mutual war damage when it comes to it without help.
You already fulfill the NATO demand of >2% GDP spending. For military conflicts initiated by Turkey the treaties are there.
You are part of the EU. For economical conflicts the sanction retalliations can devastate Turkey.

Why on Earth do you behave like a Global Greece ?
Nobody in the EU or the NATO will be grateful for that.
You are not entitled to command the EU or the NATO what to do !!!
You neither have the Right of Might to do that !

 

[Kyriakos]

You fully ignore the positional play by the EU
perhaps you don't understand it... perhaps you do not want to understand it
your reality is filled with statements of strongman and semi-strongman + military stuff.
Turkey is the party in desperate need of natural gas as I already outlined in post #852. Turkey needs to lessen the import for the trade balance to protect the Lira and needs less geopolitical dependency on Russia.
And from the time I was regularely in Turkey... I know how important gas supply is for Turkey... one of the many hope straws of Turkish business community already before the GFC


You cannot win alone from Turkey. Just cause a lot of mutual war damage when it comes to it without help.
You already fulfill the NATO demand of >2% GDP spending. For military conflicts initiated by Turkey the treaties are there.
You are part of the EU. For economical conflicts the sanction retalliations can devastate Turkey.

Why on Earth do you behave like a Global Greece ?
Nobody in the EU or the NATO will be grateful for that.
You are not entitled to command the EU or the NATO what to do !!!
You neither have the Right of Might to do that !

Funny, for some reason I thought Greece also needed the gas. And why should one be a global power to just make use of their own national resources on land or sea? Apparently we have no need of money and can keep on siphoning billions to the Eu with no issue - and in return get no support from the "union" we are part of.
Too bad that the gods placed the important and much needed oil/gas of Turkey in other people's countries and seas, right.

You must think Greece is bordering Sweden or Switzerland and can rely on others instead of maintaining a serious army.
There is no "positional play of the Eu", Hrothbern: There are no meaningful sanctions... There barely is a union other than in name, and if threats of war and taking of land against a member won't make you see that, can the voice in your head at least inform you that nothing will?

 

[Hrothbern]

Funny, for some reason I thought Greece also needed the gas. And why should one be a global power to just make use of their own national resources on land or sea? Apparently we have no need of money and can keep on siphoning billions to the Eu with no issue - and in return get no support from the "union" we are part of.
Too bad that the gods placed the important and much needed oil/gas of Turkey in other people's countries and seas, right.

You must think Greece is bordering Sweden or Switzerland and can rely on others instead of maintaining a serious army.
There is no "positional play of the Eu", Hrothbern: There are no meaningful sanctions... There barely is a union other than in name, and if threats of war and taking of land against a member won't make you see that, can the voice in your head at least inform you that nothing will?

I think we can agree not to agree

Let's pick the discussion up again when some more major stuff happens (without needing to stop posing events or info we consider meaningful)

 

[Kyriakos]

Sure, let's move from the threat of occupying territory of an Eu state to something of equal significance, eg Holland losing some money if no deal brexit happens.

 

[Hrothbern]

Sure, let's move from the threat of occupying territory of an Eu state to something of equal significance, eg Holland losing some money if no deal brexit happens.

When that occupying happens we have something of substance to discuss worthy strong actions.

And because we both have no access to what happens behind curtains we will have to wait.

 

[Kyriakos]

When that occupying happens we have something of substance to discuss worthy strong actions.

Don't you think that may be excessive? I mean some actions, but not having to be strong. After all it is just an invasion. Agree that by logic strong actions are only called for in cases of forcing austerity.

 

[innonimatu]

Don't you think that may be excessive? I mean some actions, but not having to be strong. After all it is just an invasion. Agree that by logic strong actions are only called for in cases of forcing austerity.

Even austerity, do recall, can only be forced by the EU with the help of traitors inside each country. The greek people were betrayed by their government after the referendum.

And the brutish very narrowly escaped betrayal after their referendum, with the EU's "negotiations" always being carried out with a strategy to empower its fifth column in London.

 

[Lexicus]

Even austerity, do recall, can only be forced by the EU with the help of traitors inside each country. The greek people were betrayed by their government after the referendum.

What could the Greek government have done? It didn't have popular support for alternatives. IIRC clear majorities of the Greek population were against the EU's bailout deal, but clear majorities were also against leaving the EU or ditching the Euro...so what was left?

 

[Kyriakos]

What could the Greek government have done? It didn't have popular support for alternatives. IIRC clear majorities of the Greek population were against the EU's bailout deal, but clear majorities were also against leaving the EU or ditching the Euro...so what was left?

Wouldn't it be nice if the Eu actually did something to secure the Eu itself having access to Eu-controlled gas/oil through the east med pipeline? Maybe the negative here would be taking off one country from austerity.
Austerity is doing wonders for the economy of certain Eu countries that play usurer and then have the nerve to ask for thanks for those forced loans as if they are gifts

 

[innonimatu]

What could the Greek government have done? It didn't have popular support for alternatives. IIRC clear majorities of the Greek population were against the EU's bailout deal, but clear majorities were also against leaving the EU or ditching the Euro...so what was left?

Doing what the referendum said: refusing the EU's "deal" for "saving" Greece. Then either the EU folded (kept supporting greek banks, as it did the others) or finally released Greece from the Euro by letting the ones inside Greece lobbying to keep it there (the bankers and the wealthier portion of the population, those who though they had something to lose) go bankrupt.
Bankruptcy, allowing for the state to step in and reorganize things because it was necessary, would have been better that what Greece has been suffering through.

"Clear majorities" in several countries are not against leaving the Euro or or the EU. Most people don't even think too much about this stuff until a crisis in going on. Then they're scared by a barrage of propaganda, that no one with influence over the media wants to counter. Rather the opposite. The comprador elites in each country keep deploying that propaganda because the EU is their political shield.

The EU is a paper tiget waiting to be ripped in pieces. The only reason it has influence is because people believe it has influence - fall for the porpaganda. The rationale for the existence of the EU is supposedly economic, the one for the Euro certainly was, but the economic performance of the EU, and the "eurozone" in particular, has been miserable compared to either the pre-EU decades in Europe, and the contemporary developed world.

It's built on a lie. A lie that is not exposed because of the real purpose of the EU: to be a political shield for the corrupt elites in each country. This is no accident, no "flaw" in the design: it has been the sole goal of the design from day one.

To understand this one has to dig into how political parties are financed in continental Europe, how political influence was bought by the elites of some countries in others, how stability has been sought through processes of imitation by the conservative/business strata in each country... it's a big puncture, and a dirty one. As dirty as politics in the US, really. Corruption plays as big a role here as in the US and the UK.

 

[r16]

boys , boys , calm down will you ?

post 842 , those who betted it would be forgotten or ignored within 10 days , they won . Locals are back to dumb US State Department crews . For the moving goal posts and the million or so of people who have died there will be no pipeline . lt is totally wrong to claim New Turkey needs extraction of gas or anything like that ; it is just that the current claims the 5 best friends of the PM and their obesely hungry companies must be paid 240 billion US dollars worth of taxpayer , because if they don't their foreign partners will order them to support some other political personality . CHP promises to nationalize them , after winning the next elections , because everybody knows fools must be kept under control with false promises .

a full sandstorm in Ankara yesterday , and how very fitting , too . And was playing Civ during the day so missed it long enough ... So , the impression is New Turkey opened fire on a MiG in Libya , because there is to be actual peace there because let me guess , neither the British or the French have the heart for a little war , this being the centennary of RAF increased in size and like put on alert against some French bombing raid or something ... And the MiG or its pals might or might not have fired on New Turkey ships , this is far less clear and there is no online discussion . So , Putin orders its PR people to create a video that New Turkey can distribute amongst its rank and file on how they gloriously downed another Russian jet . What was ı saying ? Ah yes , everybody loves New Turkey , because OMG , what is dat thing lurking in the shadows ????? Actually much believed in New Turkey , the combined Turkish / EU flag thing has been around since maybe 2005 , maybe 1996 , ı really don't know , and some EU person in some meeting said he/she didn't want to see it . To be given the most awesomrly glorious answer in an instant because the guy in that picture in the last page is the secretary for foreign stuff of the palace cabinet and aren't they always glorious ? Only people more glorious are the TV presenters , so full of themselves and one said Çavuşoğlu taught them the Power of New Turkey and the Anatolian ideals or something like that . Because one must remember the Republic of 1923 was the final result of emigrees from the Balkans , who like knew what any more defeats would lead too . Blasphemous Europeans , New Turkey is helping you so greatly and you must offer them gold , money and free chocolate ! They have saved you from Jews!

 

[Kyriakos]

@Hrothbern , check the Dutch Mep, starts at 9.00

That said, it would have been a great idea for Greece to just declare 12 miles of control in the Aegean, as mentioned by your mep as well, an entirely legal and UN-protected right of each country. Why doesn't it? Not sure, one can suspect the worst. Should have happened yesterday, and certainly now when the issue is focused upon by the Eu.

Got to say I was amused by Cavusoglu (turkish speaker to the Eu on this) when he showed a map with the Aegean zones if Greece practices its UN right to extend to 12 miles, saying that this will cut off Turkey from the Aegean. Well, yes, much like Greece is cut off from control of the Marmara (sea between the straits). Tends to happen when the geography allows it - how this is an argument against allowing a country to have its rights is beyond me (reminding that Turkey still says it will automatically declare war if this happens, and the Eu Meps there waking up to this and asking about it). Almost seems like some people think what is right has to be in their favor because reasons

 

[r16]

it is only normal for friends to disappear when you got an advantage to press . Erasing small print when you think nobody is watching is not cool as one would think and the disasters A-K-P imposes on the country should not be encouraging in any way ... Dassault is probably getting orders for 18 new Rafales even if Greece gets only 6 of them , 4 frigates loveably expensive , money to be set aside for orders from America and so on .

(anatolian values was the phrase ı was looking to say in my previous post and yes , the Greek military has been steadily expanding since 2014 when their best friends' hold on power started to seem diminishing)

 

[Hrothbern]

After some tit for tat making clear that Turkey will not like the EU sanctions that will come if it continues:its position reacting on the quoted remark of Turkey to "go to war" if Greece would apply that 12 mile territorial waters move.
That Dutch MEP of the Liberals (Dutch VVD, EU Renew) makes the following chained row of suggestions
* as sign of de-escalation the Turkish drilling ship is withdrawn
* we need a constructive way forward by impartial mediation for example the ICJ, the International Court de Justice in The Hague.
* Dear Turkey, consider this (above) as a "proposal" to move forward

To consider as well in this mess is that Turkey has not signed the UN UNCLOS treaty on maritime law, unlike Cyprus and Greece.
Turkey, like the US wanting no outside interference, like China wanting to increase its sea surface, regards itself as a "big player" standing above the law, but also facing historical bad luck with the coastline of Turkey.

Now.. some two weeks ago I saw in a Dutch Newspaper a short remark that IF the issue would be put forward to the ICJ the likely verdict would decrease the total area of Greek waters a little bit but would keep all important oil-gas areas Greek.
But such a ICJ verdict would in general be very bad for Turkish claims on sea surface.

You would say from a distance that the richness of oil-gas would be a common sense ground for Cyprus, Greece and Turkey to come to some practical agreement to start exploiting fast the oil-gas before the increasing amount of renewable energy sources in the world decrease the price of oil-gas so much that more expensive oil-gas exploitation makes no commercial sense anymore for the big fossil multinationals, especially if you add up the risk for those fossil multinationals that exploitation and therefore return on investments is interrupted by political issues, which further affects the commercial drive to invest.

It's like two dogs fighting for a bone with the third dog walking away with that bone.

What that Dutch pro-business Liberal MEP does is simply proposing a solution by International Law hoping-assuming thiswill restore "peace" and a stable future for new investments in oil-gas to the benefit of an EU member Greece, making the EU more independent from oil-gas of the Middle East, Russia, the US.

EDIT
And yes... if you can make a deal now, and do not have to wait for a long ICJ court case and perhaps give Turkey some bones as well from the huge amount of bones available...
everybody is better off.

But if that is going to happen ?

For now Turkey tries with Libya to get hold of the migrant streams from Africa as well to the EU.
And with Middle East AND Africa migrant stream control seeks long term leverage on the EU.

 

[Kyriakos]

After some tit for tat making clear that Turkey will not like the EU sanctions that will come if it continues:its position reacting on the quoted remark of Turkey to "go to war" if Greece would apply that 12 mile territorial waters move.
That Dutch MEP of the Liberals (Dutch VVD, EU Renew) makes the following chained row of suggestions
* as sign of de-escalation the Turkish drilling ship is withdrawn
* we need a constructive way forward by impartial mediation for example the ICJ, the International Court de Justice in The Hague.
* Dear Turkey, consider this (above) as a "proposal" to move forward

To consider as well in this mess is that Turkey has not signed the UN UNCLOS treaty on maritime law, unlike Cyprus and Greece.
Turkey, like the US wanting no outside interference, like China wanting to increase its sea surface, regards itself as a "big player" standing above the law, but also facing historical bad luck with the coastline of Turkey.

Now.. some two weeks ago I saw in a Dutch Newspaper a short remark that IF the issue would be put forward to the ICJ the likely verdict would decrease the total area of Greek waters a little bit but would keep all important oil-gas areas Greek.
But such a ICJ verdict would in general be very bad for Turkish claims on sea surface.

You would say from a distance that the richness of oil-gas would be a common sense ground for Cyprus, Greece and Turkey to come to some practical agreement to start exploiting fast the oil-gas before the increasing amount of renewable energy sources in the world decrease the price of oil-gas so much that more expensive oil-gas exploitation makes no commercial sense anymore for the big fossil multinationals, especially if you add up the risk for those fossil multinationals that exploitation and therefore return on investments is interrupted by political issues, which further affects the commercial drive to invest.

It's like two dogs fighting for a bone with the third dog walking away with that bone.

What that Dutch pro-business Liberal MEP does is simply proposing a solution by International Law hoping-assuming thiswill restore "peace" and a stable future for new investments in oil-gas to the benefit of an EU member Greece, making the EU more independent from oil-gas of the Middle East, Russia, the US.

EDIT
And yes... if you can make a deal now, and do not have to wait for a long ICJ court case and perhaps give Turkey some bones as well from the huge amount of bones available...
everybody is better off.

But if that is going to happen ?

For now Turkey tries with Libya to get hold of the migrant streams from Africa as well to the EU.
And with Middle East AND Africa migrant stream control seeks long term leverage on the EU.

So why go to court, since Unclos already gives Greece the right to have 12 miles? Why should a country limit its own rights? Btw, afaik there is no oil/gas in the central Aegean, so the issue isn't about that there. It is about control of the sea for movement, which is very important. Like I said, greek ships can't go to the black sea just cause they feel like it, and certainly not if they are warships. Should be the same with greek closed seas.

 

[EnglishEdward]

@Hrothbern , check the Dutch Mep, starts at 9.00

Well I watched the first 85 seconds which was all about stars on flags on slides overshadowing other flags.and switched off.

 

[Lexicus]

Doing what the referendum said: refusing the EU's "deal" for "saving" Greece. Then either the EU folded (kept supporting greek banks, as it did the others) or finally released Greece from the Euro by letting the ones inside Greece lobbying to keep it there (the bankers and the wealthier portion of the population, those who though they had something to lose) go bankrupt.
Bankruptcy, allowing for the state to step in and reorganize things because it was necessary, would have been better that what Greece has been suffering through.

"Clear majorities" in several countries are not against leaving the Euro or or the EU. Most people don't even think too much about this stuff until a crisis in going on. Then they're scared by a barrage of propaganda, that no one with influence over the media wants to counter. Rather the opposite. The comprador elites in each country keep deploying that propaganda because the EU is their political shield.

The EU is a paper tiget waiting to be ripped in pieces. The only reason it has influence is because people believe it has influence - fall for the porpaganda. The rationale for the existence of the EU is supposedly economic, the one for the Euro certainly was, but the economic performance of the EU, and the "eurozone" in particular, has been miserable compared to either the pre-EU decades in Europe, and the contemporary developed world.

It's built on a lie. A lie that is not exposed because of the real purpose of the EU: to be a political shield for the corrupt elites in each country. This is no accident, no "flaw" in the design: it has been the sole goal of the design from day one.

To understand this one has to dig into how political parties are financed in continental Europe, how political influence was bought by the elites of some countries in others, how stability has been sought through processes of imitation by the conservative/business strata in each country... it's a big puncture, and a dirty one. As dirty as politics in the US, really. Corruption plays as big a role here as in the US and the UK.

I think you're being too gung-ho about the difficulties the Greek government would have faced in navigating an exit from the EU without a clear popular mandate to do so. Even with massive popular support it will not be easy for a government to do this, particularly a country with as many socioeconomic problems as Greece.

 

[Kyriakos]

I think you're being too gung-ho about the difficulties the Greek government would have faced in navigating an exit from the EU without a clear popular mandate to do so. Even with massive popular support it will not be easy for a government to do this, particularly a country with as many socioeconomic problems as Greece.

It is also why there were threats of being kicked out of the Eu, when it is known there is no way to actually force a country out of the Eu. Leaving the Euro (common currency zone) is a different issue.

 

[Hrothbern]

So why go to court, since Unclos already gives Greece the right to have 12 miles? Why should a country limit its own rights? Btw, afaik there is no oil/gas in the central Aegean, so the issue isn't about that there. It is about control of the sea for movement, which is very important. Like I said, greek ships can't go to the black sea just cause they feel like it, and certainly not if they are warships. Should be the same with greek closed seas.

I know that all

It is also not going to solve the situation
certainly not of that little rock near the Turkish coast where 300 people live... ot was it 500 during summertime ?
(and that 200 miles sea )