This game is so arbitrary, makes me quit.

[Snarkhunter]

I would put it to bed if it were not so irritating. I have been playing board and miniature war games since 1970. . . .

'67, with fumbling attempts at ones I designed myself--got you beat But it wasn't until Panzerblitz & discovering S&T that I really took off.

I keep wondering if I should break out Trevor Dupuy's Qualitative Lethality Index equations to determine exactly what values to use for the units, but I am not sure that I am interested in that much work, plus the equations start breaking down when it comes to armored vehicles, and really break down when it comes to aircraft, and he never had the foggiest idea as to what to do with warships.

Now you have my undivided attention. I've been wondering what the professional take on Dupuy's work is since I started running into it 30 years ago. First thing I read was an attempt to quantify the value of surprise, based fairly heavily on the '67 & '73 Arab-Israeli wars.

As I recall, the equations have a lot of parameters (which I don't remember). Why do you think they break down with armor & aircraft? A dimension to the combat(s) not foreseen? Or something the methodology fundamentally isn't suited for?

kk

 

[Chamnix]

Thanks for posting the saves, meisen. I have been playing with the first save posted by meisen, and I have satisfied myself with the results. The inescapable conclusion is that in the battle to capture Yekaterinburg the RNG is biased. That is to say, there is something going on in that battle that cannot be explained by the combat factors I know of.

First, I changed some things before hitting enter. Specifically, I made it much simpler. I disbanded all units in Yekaterinburg and moved the 8/8 elite cossack (defense=8) into Yekaterinburg and fortified him. The AI attacked with knights or (once) a war elephant (both attack=7). By taking promotions and defensive bombard out of the equation, all I had to do was count the number of hps lost by the AI’s knights before they had taken 8 hps from the Cossack and killed him. I also changed builds so that nothing would complete for the player in the IBT to save time. The save I used is attached. I ran that turn 100 times, and here are the results:



The fortified Cossack defending in a city on flat ground should have a modified defense of 14.8 (8 * (1 + 25% + 50% + 10%)). With an attacker of strength 7, I would expect the defender to take around 16 hps before losing all 8 of his. Instead he averaged around 11.25 and very infrequently took 16 or more. You could also look at the data as 1824 individual battles of a 7 vs. a 14.8. Instead of the expected 1238, the 14.8 only won 1024.

Someone who has used statistics more recently than I have can no doubt determine 95% confidence intervals and whatnot, but to me eyeballing it that data simply can’t be for a 7 vs. 14.8 battle.

This is not to say I’m ready to join the camp of those who believe the RNG cheats in favor of the AI. I still find that explanation unpalatable, and I really hope it’s not true, so I will be the first to propose an alternative theory even though I haven’t tested it at all yet: When defending a city in resistance, the defender (whether human or AI) does not get the normal defensive bonuses. This theory has the following advantages:

1. It is reasonable based on the data I have right now, and
2. I like it better.

Carry on…

 

[mr_lewington]

"preserve random seed"

What is that anyways?

 

[TheOverseer714]

Do you work for Take 2? Is there something we ought to know?

I wish... I take that back, working there would require me to like Civ 4...

 

[TheOverseer714]

What is that anyways?

-preserverve random seed-
It boils down most simply as "the same combat results will occur every time you reload if done in the same order" if it is checked. Un-checked "a different outcome is possible for the same combat if you reload".

 

[Lone Wolf]

When defending a city in resistance, the defender (whether human or AI) does not get the normal defensive bonuses.

From the Civilopedia: (#GCON_Terrain_Combat)

Cities with resisters do not give defensive bonuses.

 

[Chamnix]

From the Civilopedia: (#GCON_Terrain_Combat)

Cities with resisters do not give defensive bonuses.

Ah, yes, the old "check the Civilopedia trick"

BTW, Chamnix, how did you post a thumbnail in the middle of your post? I tried doing that before, but it didn't work.

I upload the pictures to imageshack.

 

[timerover51]

I am finishing up my initial test scenario, and have the following interesting item to report with respect to the AI and combat results. I have the Knights Templar set not to go obsolete, as I like Crusaders, and use them as combat engineers for fortresses and road building (no animation for that as yet). I have been hitting my Aztec opponents with Crusaders, modern paratroops, and Marines. In about 20 combats between Crusaders and the Aztec mix of spearmen and medieval infantry, my Crusaders have taken about 2 hitpoints of damage. That is not two hit points per combat, but TWO HITPOINTS TOTAL. When I attack the spearmen and medieval infantry with modern paratroops, if about half the combats, my 10/11 paratroops with boosted hitpoints are taking 2 to 3 hitpoints of damage per paratroop per combat. I have not lost any so far, but the difference is astonishing, since the Crusaders are 5/5. I have even had Crusaders take out spearmen in towns with no damage, while the paratroops take a fair amount.

My only conclusion is that the AI random number generator is biased against high tech level troops. Plus I had a caravel do 3 hitpoints of damage to a nuclear sub, which had boosted hitpoints, otherwise it might have been sunk. At least I have not yet lost any aircraft to archer fire, but I am waiting to see something like that.

 

[jtdog]

I would like to add my 2 cents to this forum from a Newby trying to wage a warmongering island campaign against the biggest bully in my world (the Aztecs).

I had my first "what the bleep, I hate this game" moment last night. I finally made a beachhead in Aztec land with a settled fort city and miltary units and had captured one of there size 6 cities, even had one of their allies (the Iros) give up and offer me a peace treaty (everyone other CIV still hates me), I had the galleon/caravel convoys going with new units and was feeling pretty good THEN I had civil disorder in all my cities (shutting down my production), followed one turn later the Iros joined the French (2 turns after our peace treaty) to attack me (my foreign advisor says they had an MPP). and worst of all by my fort city flipping to the Aztecs and I think they call this a culture flip. What amazed me was that I settled the city and had a Leader in the city, one turn from barracks, and worst of all had just drop off 7 units. I assume all my cannons, knights, legions and musketmen in that city are now Aztec units. This represented half my invading army.

Questions

1. I don't really know what I'm doing when their is civil disorder on the hhome front. I just increase my entertainment spend to 20% and wait. any better methods?

2. Did the fact I had been waging a war for umpteen turns cause the civil disorder or is it chance?

3. Culture Flipping - I assumed it could happen in a captured town, but this was my settler and we were starting to win to the point where the CIVs where asking for peace treaties and I was getting greedy. What can I look for to know when I'm vulnerable to a culture flip?

4. Because of the flipped city, and my perception of its military strength, I'm ready to quit the invasion. Should I be able to get a good peace treaty out of giving the Aztecs back their city or does the AI know I'm stuck and I should be happy with anything they offer?

5. Any chance or method to make my fort city flip back to me?

 

[Aabraxan]

I would like to add my 2 cents to this forum from a Newby trying to wage a warmongering island campaign against the biggest bully in my world (the Aztecs).

I had my first "what the bleep, I hate this game" moment last night. I finally made a beachhead in Aztec land with a settled fort city and miltary units and had captured one of there size 6 cities, even had one of their allies (the Iros) give up and offer me a peace treaty (everyone other CIV still hates me), I had the galleon/caravel convoys going with new units and was feeling pretty good THEN I had civil disorder in all my cities (shutting down my production), followed one turn later the Iros joined the French (2 turns after our peace treaty) to attack me (my foreign advisor says they had an MPP). and worst of all by my fort city flipping to the Aztecs and I think they call this a culture flip. What amazed me was that I settled the city and had a Leader in the city, one turn from barracks, and worst of all had just drop off 7 units. I assume all my cannons, knights, legions and musketmen in that city are now Aztec units. This represented half my invading army.

Questions

Aaaaannnndd . . . welcome to the wonderful world of culture flips. Sorry to hear about it. Though it may be no consolation, most if not all of us have lost troops to culture flips. I remember losing a cav army (or was it 2?) to the Sumerians in a culture flip once.

1. I don't really know what I'm doing when their is civil disorder on the hhome front. I just increase my entertainment spend to 20% and wait. any better methods?

30%? One of the issues that you may have run into is War Weariness. There's a War Academy article here that may help explain this better than I can.

Also, he basic rule is that a city goes into civil disorder any time that unhappy citizens outnumber happy citizens. Neither content citizens nor specialists make any difference in determining civil disorder. Example: A size 9 city with:
5 happy and 4 unhappy: will not riot
4 happy, 1 content and 4 unhappy: will not riot
2 happy, 5 content and 2 unhappy: will not riot
4 happy, 4 unhappy and 1 specialist: will not riot
3 happy, 2 content and 4 unhappy: will riot

Just count happies and unhappies. If you haven't located them, there are some "popheads" in the downloads (I think that's where they are) that will put mood badges on your citizens & make them easier to count. I use some that have a green badge for happy, white for content and blue for unhappy.

2. Did the fact I had been waging a war for umpteen turns cause the civil disorder or is it chance?

See my preceding answer. War weariness may have been a factor. What government were you in?

3. Culture Flipping - I assumed it could happen in a captured town, but this was my settler and we were starting to win to the point where the CIVs where asking for peace treaties and I was getting greedy. What can I look for to know when I'm vulnerable to a culture flip?

Culture flips can happen in almost any town. The exact dynamics are a little unclear to me, so I'll leave that for someone who knows more than I. Hint, Hint, Hint!

4. Because of the flipped city, and my perception of its military strength, I'm ready to quit the invasion. Should I be able to get a good peace treaty out of giving the Aztecs back their city or does the AI know I'm stuck and I should be happy with anything they offer?

It depends and I don't really know enough about your particular game to say one way or the other. Go to the bargaining table and see what they'll give you for peace.

5. Any chance or method to make my fort city flip back to me?

I rarely build much culture so it never happens for me, but maybe one of our resident culture-mongers knows of a way.

 

[Pyrrhos]

I rarely build much culture so it never happens for me, but maybe one of our resident culture-mongers knows of a way.

Yes.

Recapture and raze it and do the same to the surronding AI towns. Then build new towns A) Revenge is sweet B) Razed towns do not flip

 

[Chamnix]

Culture flips can happen in almost any town. The exact dynamics are a little unclear to me, so I'll leave that for someone who knows more than I. Hint, Hint, Hint!

Linky

The formula:

How many units do i need to suprpess a culture flip?

• the full formula (this is from Sorenson, who is responsible for this programming):
  
  P=[(F+T)*Cc*H*(Cte/Cty) - G]/D
  
  where:
  P = probability that it will flip this turn
  F = # foreignors, with resistors counting double
  T = # working tiles under foreign control (out of the max of 21, no matter what the cultural boundaries are atm)
  Cc = 2 if foreign civ has more local culture than you, 1 otherwise
  H = .5 for WLTKD, 2 for disorder, 1 otherwise
  Cte = Total culture of the foreign civ
  Cty = Total culture of your civ
  G = # garrison units
  D = factor based on relative distance to capitals
  
  Now reorganizing this gives the required garrison as:
  G = (F+T)*Cc*H*(Cte/Cty)

 

[MAS]

@jtdog

I see you are asking your questions left and right. I don't want to sound unfriendly, but you already have a thread for your island campaign, there is no need to thread-jack this thread for it. Also, there is no need to post the same post in multiple thread.

Maybe a Moderator could move the posts from this thread to the other, to keep things organized?

 

[machiavelli069]

Sometimes I get frustated with some"questionable combat results" but it is a game and as such you must seek to up the odds in your favor. That way you will give yourself the best possible advantages. During WW2 Bernard Montgomery waited probably a month longer after the battle of El Alemein to attack Rommel. The Afirka Korps were already an inferior though spirited enemy. It,s all about stacking the odds in your favor. Tally Ho

 

[AutomatedTeller]

On culture flips - the formulas are there, but they are a little murky

In general, there are two main ways that can cause a town to flip:

1) If any of the tiles in the town's fat X are in the culture boundaries of another civilization
2) If the town has citizens of another civilization in it.

My guess is that your city ran foul of 1), which can happen if you put a city less than CxxxxC from another civs city.

While you did lose the units, they didn't get them - they just disappear. They got a regular defender, whatever the best type of defender they could build there, but they didn't get your units, so that's something.