That being said, "[x] is [poss. only chance] of/to/at [y] is certainly a construction I've heard numerous times in English:
e.g. in the White Rhinos song "[This] is [my chance] to [feel alive]". There's also "[Now]'s [your chance]" and "[He/that] was [my only chance] [at fame]"
Douglas Goldring's "A Fight for Freedom" has the line: "I may as well tell you that your only chance of marrying in your own class is to marry Michael Henderson.", which can be inverted to fit the construction: [Marrying Michael Henderson] is [your only chance] of [marrying in your own class]
I found a jstor article with the headline: "Jackpot: For Colonial Slaves, [Playing the Lottery] was [a Chance] at [Freedom]
I found a mondoweiss article with the headline: "The Palestinian Minority inside Jerusalem is our last Chance for Freedom" (no troll intended MW; literally just keyword searching "chance for freedom"
Found a guardian article with the headline: "[The Star Wars Open Audition] was [My Chance] at [Fame], and I didn't get It"
I'd say both the notebook and the Earth examples are perfectly valid constructions