Originally posted by Mad Bomber
1) Russia & Germany were not on the best of terms when they decided to split Poland between themselves in 1940. No Malyasia doesn't have a large military but they do have a thriving economy & can distribute hard currency to a potential conflict.
>>> Malysia has a thriving economy because of their connections to the west, connections they wouldn't be happy to brake.
2) The Scenerios do not have to happen all at once, we still maintain troops and installations in over 20 countries world wide, with a military strength of slightly over 1.1 million men & women in uniform a commitment of 250 to 300 thousand troops to one area will compromise or hamper our abliity to project force in another area. It is well known that China has had plans for Tiawan for over 50 years. It is only the US navy which has prevented this from happening. With the US attention focused on Iraq, others may decide that it is the time for action.
>>> If China will be stupid enough to attack Taiwan the US will need months of preparations before they attack anyway.
3) People have always assumed that the war being fought will be fought as the last has. France in 1914 and 1940 are prime examples of this.Just because the US walked over Iraq in 1991 does not mean we will do the same in 2002-3. Saddam already has MWD's if we are committed to a regime change and attack he will use them.
>>> Saddam had WMD in 91' as well. I prefer to be hit by a chimical missile today than by a nule a few years from now.
4) Yes, the US will plan and it will execute it plan. but its hard to plan for unforseen circumstances. Will we have enough logistics to support two conflicts, each consisting of a 250,000 force commitment? Current indications are that the logistics would be extremely pressed with this level of a comittment.
>>> Again, if the US will take China or any other country that'll start making troubles after Iraq, it'll have both the logistics and the man power almost as much as always.
5) Russia could simply trade arms for oil, with a surpus of oil they could sell the oil to europe & jumpstart their economy almost overnight. Yes once again another comparison to 1990, folks it's NOT going to be the same war in a different year. This would be even more of note if Israel were to get involved, which would change the character of the war overnight
>>> Considering the poor condition of Russian arms and the fact that they wouldn't give up too much of their army, I doubt such a deal will change the face of war. Putting a few untrained Iraqis in an old piece of soviet armour isn't gonna make an efficient tank. And that's assuming Russia will be willing to risk it's relations with the US so much.