UK Election - Place your bets!

[ComradeDavo]

Might a British poster explain how the smaller parties might factor into a hung Parliament? If the Conservatives were just a wee bit short, would it be possible to enter into a coalition with Unionists or Plaid Cymru? I don't mean theoretically possible, but a political reality. It's my outsider view that entering into a coalition with a secessionist party or Unionists would be political suicide.

The Ulster Unionists would go into coalition with the Tories, thats already been made clear.

Plaid Cymru are way too left-wing for any kind of alliance with the Tories, as are the SNP.

 

[RedRalph]

Cameron as PM.

 

[Bast]

Go Greens!

 

[ComradeDavo]

Go Greens!

They may win one seat (Brighton Pavillian) and possiably one in Norwich, but it's well known fact that have essentially focused the entirety of their limited resources into these 2 seats. There may be a 3rd but I cant think where it is.

Anyway this threads for predictions, and thats obviousy not a prediction

 

[Takhisis]

Because the Conservatives have been out of power long enough that I don't associate the quasi-police state Labour's been running with them. Not sayin' it's true, just that I couldn't pinch my nose and vote for Labour in an anything-but-conservative campaign. I just couldn't do it.

According to the high commission here in Ottawa, I would be eligible to vote where my mother last lived, which was some place in Birmingham. I suspect it'd be too late to register though.

I hate the whole surveillance camera thing. BBB (Big Brother Blair Brown) is watching you!

Popular vote: Tories lead, Labour and LibDems neck and neck, everybody else behind.

Seat count: Tories will have a strong minority, with only around ten to twenty seats bellow a majority. Labour second, LibDems third. SNP may pick up a seat or two; Plaid Crymu may pick up a seat or two. The UKIP, BNP and Greens will not win a seat at all.

SNP and Plaid Cymru will have one or two seats each but they'll remain almost insignificant on the London Parliament.

 

[emzie]

The Ulster Unionists would go into coalition with the Tories, thats already been made clear.

That rather surprises me!

Plaid Cymru are way too left-wing for any kind of alliance with the Tories, as are the SNP.

Ah, I thought they were right-wing nationalist where as SNP was left-wing nationalist.

 

[Takhisis]

Ah, I thought they were right-wing nationalist where as SNP was left-wing nationalist.

Nah, they're both center-left nationalist (unofficially republicans) and they're in some sort of alliance.

 

[Quackers]

Green Party:

Green on the outside, but really red on the inside More like the Bolshevik party

 

[ComradeDavo]

That rather surprises me!

They are effectively running on the same ticket as the Tories, one look at their website and you see the Tory logo's straight away. In fact their sole MP in the House of commons after the last election actually resigned because she opposed this and is now standing as an independent.

 

[emzie]

They are effectively running on the same ticket as the Tories, one look at their website and you see the Tory logo's straight away. In fact their sole MP in the House of commons after the last election actually resigned because she opposed this and is now standing as an independent.

Well, I meant I found it surprising as I thought Ulster Unionists would be considered somewhat untouchable to major political parties. I get that they're moderate compared to some Unionists during the Troubles, but I figured there'd still be a bit of taring.

 

[Dachs]

Well, I meant I found it surprising as I thought Ulster Unionists would be considered somewhat untouchable to major political parties. I get that they're moderate compared to some Unionists during the Troubles, but I figured there'd still be a bit of taring.

Apparently not as far as the Conservative and Unionist Party is concerned

 

[Shekwan]

I'm trying to go to the UUP website and I'm being automatically redirected to the Conservatives' one.

 

[Camikaze]

Tentative prediction- Tory minority government formed, lasts for about a year before they fall, with Labour and the Lib Dems forming a more solid and palatable coalition after the ensuing election.

 

[Newbunkle]

What I'd like to see: The Tories finishing 1 seat short of a majority and David Cameron screaming [vadar]noooooooooo![/vadar].

 

[Shekwan]

I think fear (of hung parliament, immigrants, EU and the Euro in the wake of Greece) will push people towards the Tories. Some bandwaggoning of voters from Labour to Liberal Democrats will assure a slim Conservative majority.

Groovy Dave as PM.

I sincerely hope this doesn't happen, but thats my prediction.

 

[Takhisis]

Vote the Tories because of fear of a hung Parliament? Is the electorate that gullible? I left the Uk when i was six, I really couldn't say, but everything's posible...

 

[Shekwan]

Things that are not familiar to people scare them. Its not a UK thing, happens everywhere. Thats basically the reason conservative parties are so popular the world over.

 

[ComradeDavo]

I think fear (of hung parliament, immigrants, EU and the Euro in the wake of Greece) will push people towards the Tories. Some bandwaggoning of voters from Labour to Liberal Democrats will assure a slim Conservative majority.

I dunno, Tory support is only around 33-35% in the latest polls, and they got 33% last election, showing that they haven't really managed to capatilise on Labour's failings whilst the Lib Dems have.

Also the strongest 'fear' in this election is going to be fear of the Tories themselves, thats whats gonan get Labour voters to the ballot box in Labour versus Tory seats, and the susual tatical vting from Labour voters for the Lib Dems in seats where it's LD versus Con.

 

[Munch]

With the UK general election on May 6th, would anyone care to take a guess at the final result?

Share of the vote:
Conservatives - 35%
Labour - 30%
Liberal Democrats - 27%
Others - 8%

Total seats (according to the BBC Election seat calculator):
Conservatives - 257
Labour - 285
Liberal Democrat - 79
Others - 29

Outcome:
Confusion;
Tory party implodes with self-loathing;
Labour play with the idea of a minority government but eventually form a coalition with the Lib Dems, replacing Gordon Brown with Harriet Harman, Lib Dems settle for more moderate electoral reform (booooo), e.g. alternative vote.

 

[Mise]

We've still got 6 days left, and I think during that time Lib Dem support will fall. I think that the privacy of the voting booth will make people disillusioned by Labour to once again fall back to them. I don't think there is enough passion behind the Lib Dem revival to carry through to the voting booth.

Either way, Cameron loses. I can't see a Tory majority, which at Christmas seemed a foregone conclusion.

My Dad, for only the second time in his life, will not be voting Labour. This is largely tactical, however, given his constituency... Here's hoping the Tories lose that seat (it's Chris Grayling's seat, no less!), though it really isn't going to happen...

EDIT: My prediction! Almost forgot...

Hung parliament, Tories have most seats, Labour beat Lib Dems on popular vote.

No idea who the PM would be. I'd bet on Brown though, the man's a true survivor... Seriously...

I don't want to say I told you so, but....

Actually I really do, but I'll wait to see who's PM too