Ukraine political crisis

[crabapple]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7595667.stm

Ukraine in snap election warning
Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko has threatened to dissolve parliament and call elections after the collapse of the country's ruling coalition.

Mr Yushchenko's supporters walked out in protest following new laws trimming the president's powers.

The laws were introduced by the pro-Russian opposition and backed by Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko's party.

Former allies, the prime minister and president are now at odds despite sharing pro-Western political goals.

All but one of 12 ministers from Mr Yushchenko's party boycotted Wednesday's cabinet meeting.

"A political and constitutional coup d'etat has started in the parliament," Mr Yushchenko said in a televised speech.

"I will use my right to dissolve parliament and decree early elections if a new coalition is not formed within 30 days," he said.

'Irresponsible behaviour'

But Ms Tymoshenko blamed her rival for the chaos, vowing that the Ukrainian cabinet would continue its work despite the break-up of the coalition.





"I am sorry that the president behaves irresponsibly," she said at a cabinet meeting. "The coalition was destroyed under his instruction."
The BBC's Russian affairs analyst Steven Eke says Mr Yushchenko's popularity is at rock bottom at the moment with opinion polls giving him single-digit levels of support.

The prime minister and president are believed to be jockeying for position before next year's presidential election, though our correspondent says Mr Yushchenko's chances of winning with current popularity levels would be slim.

The crisis follows mounting tension between the president and prime minister with Mr Yushchenko accusing Ms Tymoshenko of treason for allegedly siding with Moscow over the conflict in Georgia.

Mr Yushchenko has been a vociferous supporter of Georgia during the conflict but the prime minister's party on Tuesday blocked a parliamentary resolution condemning Moscow.

The flare-up comes a day before a planned visit to the country by US Vice-President Dick Cheney.

The trip is part of a tour of former Soviet states which the US sees as key allies.

will russia take advantage of this?...

 

[RedRalph]

Double thread, man. and yes, it seems everything is coming up Putin this month...

 

[Winner]

Don't hope for it. Big War is coming...

 

[crabapple]

Double thread, man. and yes, it seems everything is coming up Putin this month...

I noticed after i posted it, but i think it deserves an own thread.

 

[RedRalph]

Don't hope for it. Big War is coming...

Between who?

 

[Winner]

Between who?

Russia and the West, presumably.

 

[RedRalph]

Russia and the West, presumably.

Ah, your sig, I see. FWIW I know that isnt going to happen.

 

[Grimz101]

Between who?

Ignore Winner, he thinks Russia is still trying to take over the world.

 

[Winner]

Ignore Winner, he thinks Russia is still trying to take over the world.

Care to prove that assertion? Anyway, see my sig, the last sentence. Looks familiar?

 

[Winner]

Ignore Winner, he thinks Russia is still trying to take over the world.

Care to prove that assertion? Anyway, see my sig, the last sentence. Looks familiar?

 

[Grimz101]

Care to prove that assertion? Anyway, see my sig, the last sentence. Looks familiar?

Im to lazy to prove that assertion, but im still sure people will agree with me anyway.
However although i think the Russian Leadership is slightly crazed/stupid, i dont think they will risk a 'great war' their would be too much of an economic consequence, which is basicly why there has been no wars between major European powers..
The Russian people will only support their leaders untill the policies effect Economic growth negatively.

 

[EconomistBR]

Im to lazy to prove that assertion, but im still sure people will agree with me anyway.
However although i think the Russian Leadership is slightly crazed/stupid, i dont think they will risk a 'great war' their would be too much of an economic consequence, which is basicly why there has been no wars between major European powers..
The Russian people will only support their leaders untill the policies effect Economic growth negatively.

I agree with you 100%. No need for proofs, Winner is quite repetitive and radical about Russia.

This Russian assertiveness is being fueled by Oil money and is designed to keep Putin and his friends on power by making them look strong, simple. No need for crazy theories.

There will not even be a "Cold War II" since the oil money is not enough.

 

[RedRalph]

Can anyone find figures on Ukrainian public support for NATO and EU membership?

 

[Winner]

I agree with you 100%. No need for proofs, Winner is quite repetitive and radical about Russia.

"No need for proofs, that woman is a witch!"
"Burn, witch, burn!"
"She cursed my sheeps and they have all died!"
"My garden is infested with pests, it's all fault of her black magic!"
"I heard that she summoned demons in her hourse and consorted with the devil!"
"She's guilty! We know it! Burn the witch!"
"BURN THE WITCH!"



Sorry guys, but you're as pathetic as some illiterate superstitious villagers in the 16th century. I've been and I will continue to criticize the Russian government, the Russian leaders, the Russian expansionism and the agressive and imperialist Russian foreign policy. This has nothing to do with any hatred against the Russians as a nation, as the witchhunters here like to say without any proof whatsoever.

As it turned out recently, I am the one who's been right all the time, while the appeasers and ignorants got slapped by the reality about a month ago when Russian armies invaded Georgia and consequently recognized two breakaway provinces.

Yeah, I've been repetitive, because a lot of people have been, and still are, in denial.

 

[Winner]

Can anyone find figures on Ukrainian public support for NATO and EU membership?

Google...

4.6. The Public Opinion

In accordance with the Democratic Initiative Foundation (DIF), 56% of Ukrainians supported EU membership in 2000 and 2001, and 25% and 23% would vote for NATO membership in 2000 and 2001 accordingly. Only 10% and 8% of respondents were against Ukraine’s membership in the EU; whereas NATO membership was opposed by 34% and 33% of Ukrainians in 2000 and 2001 accordingly.
The results of DIF opinion poll in May 2004 revealed that 56% of Ukrainians still support the country’s membership in the EU, and NATO membership was supported by 27%. However, the number of opponents of both the EU and NATO membership grew to 20% and 49% accordingly. This could be explained by the debates that preceded the 2004 Presidential elections. In 2005 the public opinion was still quite supportive of Ukraine’s membership in the EU. Forty-four percent of the respondents were for the EU accession, 28% were against and 28% would abstain from partaking in the referendum.


The results of the opinion poll of the National Institute for Strategic Studies (NISS) are less optimistic: “the support for Ukraine’s membership in the EU decreased from 55% in 2001, to 47% in 2005, and 43% in 2006”.
The public support of EU membership remains to be a quite stable variable. However, the number of EU opponents is growing. Some explain this impact by the negative attitude towards Ukraine’s membership prospect within the EU Member States. However, neither the statements of EU politicians nor the negative public opinion has had impact on the perception of Ukrainians.
Moreover, the results of various opinion polls from the EU Member States (see Box 2 below) provide a ‘rosy picture’ of the European’s attitude towards Ukrainians and the possibility of Ukraine’s accession to the EU in the future.

A Portrait of a Proponent and an Opponent of Ukraine’s European Integration

Proponent

- Ukrainian by nationality
- Ukrainian-speaking person
- A citizen of western or central Ukraine
- A citizen proud of his/her Ukrainian citizenship
- A person from a city or village with a population higher than 250,000
- A person of 20 to 40 years old

Opponent

- Ethnic Russian
- A citizen of eastern or southern Ukraine
- A person who perceives him/herself a USSR citizen
- A person from a small village, town
- An older person (27.6% – 50+ years old, almost 23% – in the group of 30-50 years old)

4.3. The Political Parties
According to political parties’ programmes there is a clear line between the pro-Russian Party of the Regions (PoR) and the pro-Western Our Ukraine. The pre-election slogans of the PoR were based on the idea of closer ties with Russia, on granting the Russian language a status of a second official language, and on abstaining from NATO membership. However, the last few months illustrated the inconsistency between the pre-election declarations and post-election actions. First and foremost, a significant part of the PoR (e.g. businessmen turned into politicians) is interested in closer ties with the EU. It will open a door to the EU Internal Market for Ukrainian exporters
and grant them access to cheaper resources.
The opinions of the parties diverge significantly when it comes to the country’s relations with NATO. Our Ukraine party is the only party that fully supports Ukraine’s membership in NATO.
The Party of Regions and the Socialist Party advocate a referendum on NATO membership. The position of the BYT is not clearly identified. At the same time three parties out of five (PoR, SPU and the Communist Party) support Ukraine’s neutral status.
On the one hand, all five parties have different opinions regarding Ukraine’s participation in the Single Economic Space (SES).

However, all of them (except for communists) agree that ‘a free
trade zone’ is the ultimate goal of Ukraine’s participation within the EU as it may help increase trade flows with the neighbours. However, very few politicians are ready to endorse a customs union with Russia and CIS countries, as well as to transfer national power to a supranational
body.
The results of the recent parliamentary elections led to a shift of public support to left-wing parties. The Communist Party and the SPU gained significant support. Both parties are members of the ruling coalition. Both have a pro-Russian orientation and are the opponents of Ukraine’s membership in NATO and the EU (albeit to different extent). However, voters’ support of these parties should not be attributed to increasing support for pro-Russian and/or anti-NATO, anti-EU views. Such support can be explained by the disappointment with the economic difficulties of Ukraine’s transformation process.

The centrist parties with a pro-EU orientation could get more votes during the last elections. However, the lack of public support could be attributed to the inability to come up with a solid common position and to form blocs with each other.

Source: Can anyone find figures on Ukrainian public support for NATO and EU membership?[/QUOTE]

Google...

4.6. The Public Opinion

In accordance with the Democratic Initiative Foundation (DIF), 56% of Ukrainians supported EU membership in 2000 and 2001, and 25% and 23% would vote for NATO membership in 2000 and 2001 accordingly. Only 10% and 8% of respondents were against Ukraine’s membership in the EU; whereas NATO membership was opposed by 34% and 33% of Ukrainians in 2000 and 2001 accordingly.
The results of DIF opinion poll in May 2004 revealed that 56% of Ukrainians still support the country’s membership in the EU, and NATO membership was supported by 27%. However, the number of opponents of both the EU and NATO membership grew to 20% and 49% accordingly. This could be explained by the debates that preceded the 2004 Presidential elections. In 2005 the public opinion was still quite supportive of Ukraine’s membership in the EU. Forty-four percent of the respondents were for the EU accession, 28% were against and 28% would abstain from partaking in the referendum.


The results of the opinion poll of the National Institute for
Strategic Studies (NISS) are less optimistic: “the support for Ukraine’s membership in the EU decreased from 55% in 2001, to 47% in 2005, and 43% in 2006”.
The public support of EU membership remains to be a quite stable variable. However, the number of EU opponents is growing. Some explain this impact by the negative attitude towards Ukraine’s membership prospect within the EU Member States. However, neither the statements of EU politicians nor the negative public opinion has had impact on the perception of Ukrainians.
Moreover, the results of various opinion polls from the EU Member States (see Box 2 below) provide a ‘rosy picture’ of the European’s attitude towards Ukrainians and the possibility of Ukraine’s accession to the EU in the future.

A Portrait of a Proponent and an Opponent of Ukraine’s European Integration

Proponent

- Ukrainian by nationality
- Ukrainian-speaking person
- A citizen of western or central Ukraine
- A citizen proud of his/her Ukrainian citizenship
- A person from a city or village with a population higher than 250,000
- A person of 20 to 40 years old

Opponent

- Ethnic Russian
- A citizen of eastern or southern Ukraine
- A person who perceives him/herself a USSR citizen
- A person from a small village, town
- An older person (27.6% – 50+ years old, almost 23% – in the group of 30-50 years old)

4.3. The Political Parties
According to political parties’ programmes there is a clear line between the pro-Russian Party of the Regions (PoR) and the pro-Western Our Ukraine. The pre-election slogans of the PoR were based on the idea of closer ties with Russia, on granting the Russian language a status of a second official language, and on abstaining from NATO membership. However, the last few months illustrated the inconsistency between the pre-election declarations and post-election actions. First and foremost, a significant part of the PoR (e.g. businessmen turned into politicians) is interested in closer ties with the EU. It will open a door to the EU Internal Market for Ukrainian exporters
and grant them access to cheaper resources.
The opinions of the parties diverge significantly when it comes to the country’s relations with NATO. Our Ukraine party is the only party that fully supports Ukraine’s membership in NATO.
The Party of Regions and the Socialist Party advocate a referendum on NATO membership. The position of the BYT is not clearly identified. At the same time three parties out of five (PoR, SPU and the Communist Party) support Ukraine’s neutral status.
On the one hand, all five parties have different opinions regarding Ukraine’s participation in the Single Economic Space (SES).

However, all of them (except for communists) agree that ‘a free
trade zone’ is the ultimate goal of Ukraine’s participation within the EU as it may help increase trade flows with the neighbours. However, very few politicians are ready to endorse a customs union with Russia and CIS countries, as well as to transfer national power to a supranational
body.
The results of the recent parliamentary elections led to a shift of public support to left-wing parties. The Communist Party and the SPU gained significant support. Both parties are members of the ruling coalition. Both have a pro-Russian orientation and are the opponents of Ukraine’s membership in NATO and the EU (albeit to different extent). However, voters’ support of these parties should not be attributed to increasing support for pro-Russian and/or anti-NATO, anti-EU views. Such support can be explained by the disappointment with the economic difficulties of Ukraine’s transformation process.

The centrist parties with a pro-EU orientation could get more votes during the last elections. However, the lack of public support could be attributed to the inability to come up with a solid common position and to form blocs with each other.

Source: [URL="http://www.europeum.org/doc/pdf/859.pdf"]The Debate on the EU Membership Prospects of Ukraine by Olga Shumylo

 

[RedRalph]

Thanks, couldnt find anyting on it

 

[Winner]

Looks like the ethnic Ukrainians and most of the nation elites favour EU membership (elites do that in almost every coutnry which has a chance to join the EU). Opposition is centered around ethnic Russians, especially the old and less educated ones.

Despite the slight decrease of the support, which should have been expected (you know, after a revolution there is always a lot of naive enthusiasm, which breaks down once it means the hard reality, the same thing happened in most post-communist countries), it's safe to say that there are more supporters of the membership than the opponents.

NATO membership is less popular idea, which is hardly surprising. It has never been particularly popular in my country either, until we got in and few years have passed. People are instinctively afraid of being a part of military alliance which comes with responsibilities and duties, not just security guarantees.

Moreover, the Russian-speaking Ukrainians and ethnic Russians seem to be opposed to NATO due to Kremlin's anti-NATO propaganda, they're simply following the Russian public opinion.

 

[RedRalph]

Winner give it a rest. not everyone who has differing political views to you does so because they have been tricked, or are stupid. you cant decide on instinct why the majority of a huge European country feel the way they do. Come on man, youre becoming a pardoy of yourself, its a cliche...

i think Eu membership is more likely than NATO. the next few months could go a long long way to deciding both.

 

[kronic]

Let's hope both memberships turn out to be completely unrealistic.

 

[Winner]

Winner give it a rest. not everyone who has differing political views to you does so because they have been tricked, or are stupid. you cant decide on instinct why the majority of a huge European country feel the way they do. Come on man, youre becoming a pardoy of yourself, its a cliche...

You know, your occasional outbursts of psychological counseling are really not necessary, so keep it to yourself, deal?

I am merely stating my opinion based on the fact from the paper I quoted. It's not my problem that you don't like the conclusion, because it kinda crushed your previous belief that the Ukrainians in general are not opposed to the West as much as you hoped.

i think Eu membership is more likely than NATO. the next few months could go a long long way to deciding both.

It's the other way round. It's much easier to get into NATO. Czech rep., Hungary and Poland joined NATO in 1999, 5 years before their entry to the EU. The conditions aren't that hard to fulfill.

EU, as kronic shows, is much harder to get into.