Steve Thompson
haughty & over-confident
I've recently been brooding over the prospects of a war between the US and China, after coming across this in a google search, as well as many other articles:
The overwhelming assessment by Asian officials, diplomats and analysts is that the U.S. military simply cannot defeat China. It has been an assessment relayed to U.S. government officials over the past few months by countries such as Australia, Japan and South Korea. This comes as President Bush wraps up a visit to Asia, in which he sought to strengthen U.S. ties with key allies in the region.
Most Asian officials have expressed their views privately. Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara has gone public, warning that the United States would lose any war with China.
"In any case, if tension between the United States and China heightens, if each side pulls the trigger, though it may not be stretched to nuclear weapons, and the wider hostilities expand, I believe America cannot win as it has a civic society that must adhere to the value of respecting lives," Mr. Ishihara said in an address to the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Mr. Ishihara said U.S. ground forces, with the exception of the Marines, are "extremely incompetent" and would be unable to stem a Chinese conventional attack. Indeed, he asserted that China would not hesitate to use nuclear weapons against Asian and American citieseven at the risk of a massive U.S. retaliation.
The governor said the U.S. military could not counter a wave of millions of Chinese soldiers prepared to die in any onslaught against U.S. forces. After 2,000 casualties, he said, the U.S. military would be forced to withdraw.
"Therefore, we need to consider other means to counter China," he said. "The step we should be taking against China, I believe, is economic containment."
Officials acknowledge that Mr. Ishihara's views reflect the widespread skepticism of U.S. military capabilities in such countries as Australia, India, Japan, Singapore and South Korea. They said the U.S.-led war in Iraq has pointed to the American weakness in low-tech warfare.
"When we can't even control parts of Anbar, they get the message loud and clear," an official said, referring to the flashpoint province in western Iraq.
As a result, Asian allies of the United States are quietly preparing to bolster their militaries independent of Washington. So far, the Bush administration has been strongly opposed to an indigenous Japanese defense capability, fearing it would lead to the expulsion of the U.S. military presence from that country.
On Nov. 16, Mr. Bush met with Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. The two leaders discussed the realignment of the U.S. military presence in Japan and Tokyo's troop deployment in Iraq.
During his visit to Washington in early November, Mr. Ishihara met senior U.S. defense officials. They included talks with U.S. Defense Deputy Undersecretary for Asian and Pacific Affairs Richard Lawless to discuss the realignment of the U.S. military presence in Japan.
For his part, Mr. Ishihara does not see China as evolving into a stable democracy with free elections.
"I believe such predictions are totally wrong," Mr. Ishihara said.
The impression I've always had is that the US has only theoretical military dominance, that China would prevail in a real conflict. America has extremely impressive technology & capabilities on paper (the F-22 is now operational!
) but China has SO MANY PEOPLE and such a vast manufacturing capacity that the US could not possibly defeat the Chinese except by using the 6,000 or so nukes we still have operational.
China's determination to annex Taiwan & become a world power at the expense of the US is not in question - the question is, how determined is the US to do anything? For the past few decades, it seems like the US has produced too many pacifists and too many short-sited fools to seriously oppose China in a drawn-out war. In my opinion, the ultimate strength of any nation is its people rather than its theoretical advantage in equipment. And in that respect, the US is full of people who don't care about anything and who above all don't want to die for anything, it's a "paper tiger" so to speak. As the Tokyo Governor pointed out, "I believe America cannot win as it has a civic society that must adhere to the value of respecting lives" - while America has no national spirit or willingness to sacrifice, the Chinese are getting high on nationalism! And as far as economic containment of the Chinese, well, they've become more capitalist in economic practices and openness, and the US' own system is now working in China's favor. In short, I think that America's people and industry have neither the will nor the ability to engage in a titanic struggle such as that in WWII today. Although I don't put down the regular US army as much as the Tokyo Governor, the PLA has become considerably advanced (HJ-8, Type 98, LOTS of ships, J-10, employs lots of hackers, etc.) and well-trained over the 90s and has millions and millions of draftees to draw from. In any contest of will, I give China an advantage, especially if it was a fighter over Taiwan rather than directly between the US and China - what American would want to volunteer to join the army and die for Taiwan? What politican would want to reinstate the draft? Let's face it, Taiwan's missiles aside, ground forces would ultimately be needed, and the US hates deploying large numbers of ground forces for any length of time.
What do you people think? Is China developed & advanced economically & militarily to take on America? Will China's nationalism and determination overcome all the weaponry of America in the long run? Did everything I said make you mad, or just 99%?
The overwhelming assessment by Asian officials, diplomats and analysts is that the U.S. military simply cannot defeat China. It has been an assessment relayed to U.S. government officials over the past few months by countries such as Australia, Japan and South Korea. This comes as President Bush wraps up a visit to Asia, in which he sought to strengthen U.S. ties with key allies in the region.
Most Asian officials have expressed their views privately. Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara has gone public, warning that the United States would lose any war with China.
"In any case, if tension between the United States and China heightens, if each side pulls the trigger, though it may not be stretched to nuclear weapons, and the wider hostilities expand, I believe America cannot win as it has a civic society that must adhere to the value of respecting lives," Mr. Ishihara said in an address to the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Mr. Ishihara said U.S. ground forces, with the exception of the Marines, are "extremely incompetent" and would be unable to stem a Chinese conventional attack. Indeed, he asserted that China would not hesitate to use nuclear weapons against Asian and American citieseven at the risk of a massive U.S. retaliation.
The governor said the U.S. military could not counter a wave of millions of Chinese soldiers prepared to die in any onslaught against U.S. forces. After 2,000 casualties, he said, the U.S. military would be forced to withdraw.
"Therefore, we need to consider other means to counter China," he said. "The step we should be taking against China, I believe, is economic containment."
Officials acknowledge that Mr. Ishihara's views reflect the widespread skepticism of U.S. military capabilities in such countries as Australia, India, Japan, Singapore and South Korea. They said the U.S.-led war in Iraq has pointed to the American weakness in low-tech warfare.
"When we can't even control parts of Anbar, they get the message loud and clear," an official said, referring to the flashpoint province in western Iraq.
As a result, Asian allies of the United States are quietly preparing to bolster their militaries independent of Washington. So far, the Bush administration has been strongly opposed to an indigenous Japanese defense capability, fearing it would lead to the expulsion of the U.S. military presence from that country.
On Nov. 16, Mr. Bush met with Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. The two leaders discussed the realignment of the U.S. military presence in Japan and Tokyo's troop deployment in Iraq.
During his visit to Washington in early November, Mr. Ishihara met senior U.S. defense officials. They included talks with U.S. Defense Deputy Undersecretary for Asian and Pacific Affairs Richard Lawless to discuss the realignment of the U.S. military presence in Japan.
For his part, Mr. Ishihara does not see China as evolving into a stable democracy with free elections.
"I believe such predictions are totally wrong," Mr. Ishihara said.
The impression I've always had is that the US has only theoretical military dominance, that China would prevail in a real conflict. America has extremely impressive technology & capabilities on paper (the F-22 is now operational!
) but China has SO MANY PEOPLE and such a vast manufacturing capacity that the US could not possibly defeat the Chinese except by using the 6,000 or so nukes we still have operational.China's determination to annex Taiwan & become a world power at the expense of the US is not in question - the question is, how determined is the US to do anything? For the past few decades, it seems like the US has produced too many pacifists and too many short-sited fools to seriously oppose China in a drawn-out war. In my opinion, the ultimate strength of any nation is its people rather than its theoretical advantage in equipment. And in that respect, the US is full of people who don't care about anything and who above all don't want to die for anything, it's a "paper tiger" so to speak. As the Tokyo Governor pointed out, "I believe America cannot win as it has a civic society that must adhere to the value of respecting lives" - while America has no national spirit or willingness to sacrifice, the Chinese are getting high on nationalism! And as far as economic containment of the Chinese, well, they've become more capitalist in economic practices and openness, and the US' own system is now working in China's favor. In short, I think that America's people and industry have neither the will nor the ability to engage in a titanic struggle such as that in WWII today. Although I don't put down the regular US army as much as the Tokyo Governor, the PLA has become considerably advanced (HJ-8, Type 98, LOTS of ships, J-10, employs lots of hackers, etc.) and well-trained over the 90s and has millions and millions of draftees to draw from. In any contest of will, I give China an advantage, especially if it was a fighter over Taiwan rather than directly between the US and China - what American would want to volunteer to join the army and die for Taiwan? What politican would want to reinstate the draft? Let's face it, Taiwan's missiles aside, ground forces would ultimately be needed, and the US hates deploying large numbers of ground forces for any length of time.
What do you people think? Is China developed & advanced economically & militarily to take on America? Will China's nationalism and determination overcome all the weaponry of America in the long run? Did everything I said make you mad, or just 99%?
You must have been replying when I edited my post. Oh well, I guess I'll just have to deal with the replies now after all.
