Polling over the last week has had some good news for GOPers. Was there a debate or something that Udall flubbed in Colorado? I figured he was in much better shape than the other incumbents, but it's starting to look like he is trailing Gardner. Given that Kentucky is holding for McConnell and we have a post-bombing poll included, I think it's time to take that out of the tossup column. Sabato has had it likely GOP for awhile now, not sure what's taking Cook so long. On the plus side, Scotty B may have peaked; the last poll out of New Hampshire gave Shaheen a 10 point lead.
I think 10 seats is probably a bit much for a GOP pickup unless we see another drastic move in the coming weeks. That pathway requires a sweep including states like Michigan, New Hampshire, and North Carolina, which have been pretty static and slightly-D recently. 7-8 is looking much more likely.
Side note: I've been considering Louisiana as close to a guaranteed pickup for the GOP as possible because I don't think Landrieu can exceed 50% in the November election, and she's at a greater disadvantage in a one-on-one even-lower turnout runoff election.
If the GOP only gets to 52, then the Democrats easily take it back in 2016.
2016 is going to be the reverse of this year. We've had three elections where a lot of seats have changed hands, it's resulted in unbalanced classes.
The problem is if someone on SCOTUS kicks it we'd be a judge down for at least the remainder of the Obama administration.
I think he'd end up appointing someone the GOP would like unless it is in 2016--a Supreme Court seat is just too important to leave unfilled for any prolonged length of time.
EDIT: Missed this, I took awhile to write my post.
... That said, there is a strong historical trend to change parties in the White house after eight years. If that happens, Democrat gains in the Senate are iffy. A lot depends on the economy.
No, there really isn't. We have had winning streaks of 7 (Jefferson -> Quincy Adams), 6 (Lincoln -> Garfield), 4 (McKinley -> Taft), and 5 (F. Roosevelt -> Truman). You can also add the three definite* 3-peats: (Jackson -> van Buren), (Harding -> Hoover), (Reagan -> Bush). Given we have only had 57 presidential elections and 31 are in these streaks, I think it is safe to assess this as a fairly normal occurrence.
The recent "trend" of switching every two terms also rests on weak ground because of close elections in 1960, 1976, and 2000. Oh, and 1916, Wilson was nearly a one-termer.
*Not counting (Washington -> Adams) because Washington is nominally non-partisan.