While We Wait: Part 6

[das]

It's ironic that the most secular states in the world (Europe) are on a set course to become theocratic playgrounds within the next 50 years.

There are already more practicing Muslims than practicing Catholics in France. Given the rioting in the banlieues, it's only a matter of time before French Muslims gain a significant amount of government control and attempt some sort of political overhaul.

And no, this isn't some xenophobic crazy statement. It's just extrapolating the demographic trends. The welfare state has the sad tendency to kill off the birthrate.

This was going on for much longer than that. So far it didn't lead to anything but sure, it might happen. I think you are heavily overestimating the devotion and, more importantly, political cohesion of the French Muslims, though; they could riot and generally cause trouble, but I doubt that they could actually carry out a genuine revolution even if they do somehow seize power, a panicky female Russian Orthodox writer notwithstanding. Anarchy (in the doubleplusungood sense of the word, ofcourse) is far more likely than theocracy.

 

[Symphony D.]

Well I didn't mean straight away, although 4th place isn't that bad .

A distant fourth with a far smaller population and minimal military cohesion or projection, that will only fall further and further behind. The EU only works as a contender if it incorporates a lot of countries, but then it's simultaneously mired down in bureaucratic muck. It doesn't work either way, really.

Speaking of that, what the hell is wrong with the Royal Navy? "Hey guys, oil production has probably peaked; lets make our new carriers gas and oil based instead of nuclear! That's a sound strategic decision!" And since France is sharing development costs and design, they go along with it. What?

 

[Ekolite]

A distant fourth with a far smaller population and minimal military cohesion or projection, that will only fall further and further behind.

I mentioned that in the small section you edited out:

We are Europeans after all. I just don't think we're ready to support all these Eastern Europeans just yet. (And yes I saw the massive gap between 3rd and 4th place )

But yes I agree, we're passed our time basically.

 

[Adrogans]

I have to say that I agree with Symphony on the Mexican issue here in America. Some of my family is Mexican in heritage but have been in America for generations (since before New Mexico was a state) and are proud to be such. But they are American in thought and belief long before they are Mexican. In fact I have found that legal immigrants from Mexico and most of the people with Mexican heritage but have been in the US for more than 2 generations look down upon the illegals and how they do not integrate.

Of course I also have an issue due to the fact that so much of their income goes back to Mexico and artificially prop up an economy instead.

Damn I swear I can be so confusing, sorry for the hasty reply and jumbled thought process.

 

[North King]

The welfare state has the sad tendency to kill off the birthrate.

Uhh, no. What kills off the birthrate is a high technological level.

 

[silver 2039]

Uhh, no. What kills off the birthrate is a high technological level.

And high education and living standards. Maybe France should reduce its living standards to a Sub-Sahran's country and then people will have more babies....

 

[das]

However, as Disenfrancised does not tire of pointing out, as of the early 19th century the French population growth rate was already in decline whereas the British were breeding like rabbits. Was France technologically more advanced than Britain in the early 19th century? I very much doubt that.

 

[North King]

However, as Disenfrancised does not tire of pointing out, as of the early 19th century the French population growth rate was already in decline whereas the British were breeding like rabbits. Was France technologically more advanced than Britain in the early 19th century? I very much doubt that.

There are other reasons for demographic trends, obviously. Do I really need to qualify statements with that kind of information? I mean, seriously, early 19th century France was a wretched place to live... it doesn't take a bloody genius to figure out people are going to have fewer babies there.

 

[Kozmos]

I dont know...but people multiply like crazy in times of crisis. Wanting to leave something behind and all.

 

[North King]

I dont know...but people multiply like crazy in times of crisis. Wanting to leave something behind and all.

This is a generalization to an extreme degree, and fails to take into account that there might be more than one type of crisis. Given that economically, France had just collapsed, that its agricultural sector was declining compared to other forms of the economy so people would naturally have less children anyway, and that about two million of a population of 30 million went ahead and got slaughtered from Sainte Dominique to Moscow, I think we could expect some minor declines in population figures, eh?

 

[Disenfrancised]

It's ironic that the most secular states in the world (Europe) are on a set course to become theocratic playgrounds within the next 50 years.

There are already more practicing Muslims than practicing Catholics in France. Given the rioting in the banlieues, it's only a matter of time before French Muslims gain a significant amount of government control and attempt some sort of political overhaul.

And no, this isn't some xenophobic crazy statement. It's just extrapolating the demographic trends. The welfare state has the sad tendency to kill off the birthrate.

YOU FAIL AT EXTRAPOLATION ******.
I am so sick of these lines, and this is coming from someone who has disliking the French built in at a genetic level .
-Firstly any statistic gathered on French religion is slightly suspect, as the French government specifically forbids religion on census forms so its normally some private company doing the data collection. Even so they generally have people claiming to be RC (generally a holidays and major events attendance rather than weekly) at ~50% compared to Muslim 4%. Saying the French all appear secular is like saying all Americans live in California or New York because that's all you see in the movies - what you see in the media is not representative of the nation as a whole.
-After 60 years of Muslim influx, they compose about 6-8% of the French population, and France is trying to restrict the number of new immigrants. Even if you give the current Muslim population something insane like Chad's growth rate (2.5%) and have the non-Muslim population falling at 1% a year (5 times worse than Russia's!) after 50 years of that the Muslims only make up 48%! If you use something more reasonable (but still incorrect) growth rates like Tunisia's rate for the Muslims and Russia's for the non-Muslims they'll be standing tall at 17% in 50 years. Yes they will have increasing influence, influence that in 50 years will still be much less demographically powerful than the Christian Right in the US is now. This is without addressing the 'all Islamics operate as an unchanging hive mind' thing.
-French native demographics have been crummy since the mid 18th century, long predating the welfare state, whose recent efforts to provide childcare have actually encouraged the birthrate again.

Edit: Damn you das! Actually France in the 19th still grew (+50%), just not as fast as and Germany (+200%), and Russia (+300%), both much worse places to live.

 

[Disenfrancised]

I dont know...but people multiply like crazy in times of crisis. Wanting to leave something behind and all.

No they do that in times of instability - the future is uncertain the only correct investment is in kids. What France faced was some poverty, defeat and despair whilst still being roughly stable and independent - hardly turn ons .

 

[Disenfrancised]

A distant fourth with a far smaller population and minimal military cohesion or projection, that will only fall further and further behind. The EU only works as a contender if it incorporates a lot of countries, but then it's simultaneously mired down in bureaucratic muck. It doesn't work either way, really.

Speaking of that, what the hell is wrong with the Royal Navy? "Hey guys, oil production has probably peaked; lets make our new carriers gas and oil based instead of nuclear! That's a sound strategic decision!" And since France is sharing development costs and design, they go along with it. What?

We have secret oil reserves on the continent we don't tell Americans about .

 

[Amon Savag]

We have secret oil reserves on the continent we don't tell Americans about .

Maybe we should nuke europe and take it for ourselves.

 

[Thlayli]

YOU FAIL AT EXTRAPOLATION ******.

An eloquent start. Shall we dance?

-Firstly any statistic gathered on French religion is slightly suspect, as the French government specifically forbids religion on census forms so its normally some private company doing the data collection.

Yes private companies are all evil, wot wot, but I'm pretty sure that polling sources are valid. Demographic statistics ain't exclusively the purview of the French census bureau, you know.

Even so they generally have people claiming to be RC (generally a holidays and major events attendance rather than weekly) at ~50% compared to Muslim 4%. Saying the French all appear secular is like saying all Americans live in California or New York because that's all you see in the movies - what you see in the media is not representative of the nation as a whole.

I've been to France three times, first off, so your point that I'm an uninformed, media-swallowing American falls flat there. The French appear secular because they are, for the most part, secular. Now, to the statistics. Approximately only half of those 50% claiming to be Roman Catholic actually believe in God, so the Catholicism is more 'cultural heritage' than legitimate practice. The number of atheists and theists in France are roughly equal, and since a large portion of those theists are non-Catholic, the number of French atheists FAR outnumbers the total of French practicing Catholics.

-After 60 years of Muslim influx, they compose about 6-8% of the French population, and France is trying to restrict the number of new immigrants. Even if you give the current Muslim population something insane like Chad's growth rate (2.5%) and have the non-Muslim population falling at 1% a year (5 times worse than Russia's!) after 50 years of that the Muslims only make up 48%! If you use something more reasonable (but still incorrect) growth rates like Tunisia's rate for the Muslims and Russia's for the non-Muslims they'll be standing tall at 17% in 50 years. Yes they will have increasing influence, influence that in 50 years will still be much less demographically powerful than the Christian Right in the US is now. This is without addressing the 'all Islamics operate as an unchanging hive mind' thing.

Actually, you make a good point. But where exactly did I say that the Muslim population would overtake the Caucasian French one? Oh right, nowhere. My exact words seem to be "political overhaul" and "theocratic playground". Particularly in Paris, where a large concentration of poor Arabs live, the ability to cause violent chaos rises with the number of impoverished, radicalized immigrants moving to the area. I'm not making some sort of racist, anti-Arab statement, nor am I saying that France will be replaced by a Muslim state. So, you appear to have incorrectly extrapolated my argument.

What I WAS trying to state was that since the birthrate of non-natives and their descendants is significantly higher than the norm, it's only a matter of time before those of Muslim descent compose a more statistically significant portion of the French population than their current ~7%. This increases the potential for radical Islam entering the political sphere, further incitements to violence, terrorist actions, and

There is nothing inherently bad about Islam in France. But the chances for religious-inspired violence (eg. Antisemitism etc.) become greater with the rise in Muslim population.

 

[Supermath]

Also, our first haphazard attempt to invite every NESer we know into one giant MSN convo was a somewhat chaotic success, so we should do something like that again, though a little more standardized. Anyone up for it?

Not everyone has MSN.

I always thought the worst state in the USA was South Carolina, at least that what all my RL American friends say.... (shock horror, yes I actually AM friends with some Americans in RL). Thats why I was very upset and really wanted to punch the ex-premier of Queensland in the face when he said South Carolina reminded him of home.

I've always thought Mississippi is worse than South Carolina.

For the record most of the inbreds in Australia reside in Tasmania (which has a population of about four hundred thousand) and according to the Australian version of 60 minutes now South Australia...

We have West Virginia.

They don't want them in here. I don't understand it. Just look at freaking America. What is wrong with having more ethnical groups? Right now, the government is trying to produce laws that ban New Danes from our nation, throw them out as soon as possible, making it difficult for them to enter. And, gentlemen, you might think 'I see it's unfair, but it doesn't mean that the Danes are racist', but sadly it isn't true. The problem is that the whole elderly believe that New Danes are violent, underdeveloped, extremely Islamistic and criminal. Apparently a Turkish white man is no big deal as well. I mean, what the hell, just look at the statement of Pia Kjærsgaard - previous statements from her have been that they believed there was severe Islamism in Denmark. Why would Muslims want that when they flee from their home nation to find work up here?

The problem is when they don't attempt to integrate into the culture. See: Several neighbourhoods in London.

Edit: Damn you das! Actually France in the 19th still grew (+50%), just not as fast as and Germany (+200%), and Russia (+300%), both much worse places to live.

Obviously Russia needed the people to throw at German guns.

 

[Disenfrancised]

An eloquent start. Shall we dance?

I have become rather incensed with the constant unfounded cries of Europes demographic demise, and perhaps overreacted, especially when coupled with your standard 'welfare state weakens people!'* jab that is oh so delightfully familiar.

*Note: certain not a supporter of all aspects of all welfare states, or even many of many, and there are certainly many reasons to critise them. Its just this particular critique is wrong and stupid.

Yes private companies are all evil, wot wot, but I'm pretty sure that polling sources are valid. Demographic statistics ain't exclusively the purview of the French census bureau, you know.

Yes I did say private companies are evil, and gave their statistics the dreadful epitiph of 'slightly suspect' - I obviously consider them worse than Satan, rather than merely frame a basis for the reliablity of our argumentation.

I've been to France three times, first off, so your point that I'm an uninformed, media-swallowing American falls flat there.

I never accused you of such, and am so glad you took the time to do widespread polling on your three trips. I personally have been to NYC, Houston and Hilo in the last few years, and thus feel full confident in my recollections of the few hundred people I met being sufficent for any conjectures about the US. The truthiness of what you see on your street is not something you can reliably extend to nation (suddenly has numerious NESing flashbacks).

The French appear secular because they are, for the most part, secular. Now, to the statistics. Approximately only half of those 50% claiming to be Roman Catholic actually believe in God, so the Catholicism is more 'cultural heritage' than legitimate practice. The number of atheists and theists in France are roughly equal, and since a large portion of those theists are non-Catholic, the number of French atheists FAR outnumbers the total of French practicing Catholics.

...so? The 'god' part has always been a minor aspect of Catholicism really . Plus if anything the greater proportion of atheists will if anything seek to counter, marginalise and dampen any troubles the muslims make rather than meet them head on in a 'theocratic battle'.

Actually, you make a good point. But where exactly did I say that the Muslim population would overtake the Caucasian French one? Oh right, nowhere. My exact words seem to be "political overhaul" and "theocratic playground". Particularly in Paris, where a large concentration of poor Arabs live, the ability to cause violent chaos rises with the number of impoverished, radicalized immigrants moving to the area. I'm not making some sort of racist, anti-Arab statement, nor am I saying that France will be replaced by a Muslim state. So, you appear to have incorrectly extrapolated my argument.

theocratic playgrounds within the next 50 years

Playgorund was the word I was working of, the convential use of the word (outside a childrens recreation site) implying a great deal of unfettered power to those its the playground of, so much so that they will have things their own way - which the theorised muslim political movement will not have. If this wasn't what you intended then I apologise and suggest you use more precise terms to express yourself next time.

What I WAS trying to state was that since the birthrate of non-natives and their descendants is significantly higher than the norm, it's only a matter of time before those of Muslim descent compose a more statistically significant portion of the French population than their current ~7%. This increases the potential for radical Islam entering the political sphere, further incitements to violence, terrorist actions, and

The descendents of immigrants are converging with the French norm, and Frances far right has been loosing steam the last few years (and if these trends continue disco will be a industry worth 100bil by 2010!). If you think a majority in certain regions like the Parisian banleus yield give national political power (enough to 'reform') you are mistaken - there ain't no swing states in France with so many mechanisms to fold politics into functional majorities.

 

[Amon Savag]

Ok guys, I've got 3 NPCs in my return to our roots. Kanaada, Egypt, and Sinhala. If there's anyone interested in a NES where you get more than 1 update every 3 weeks, please indulge yourself with my return to our roots. Where you decide your nation's fate... Not the mod.

 

[flyingchicken]

Which genius added the "Discounts can only be given to one nation per turn from another nation" line on the rule-set sp1023 is using? Now I can't do the tech-rush-triad-gaming-exploit-technique-but-really-an-exploit anymore! Tech Rush Duo just doesn't have that nice ring that Tech Rush Triad has.

Also, I was downloading some Europa-engine-game mods the other other day from Megaupload and the verification code was "XXX". A shame that it was not pornography I was getting, otherwise the coincidences would have piled up enough for me to believe in the Invisible Hand (but not the one that you are familiar with, that's for sure!).

 

[silver 2039]

Which genius added the "Discounts can only be given to one nation per turn from another nation" line on the rule-set sp1023 is using? Now I can't do the tech-rush-triad-gaming-exploit-technique-but-really-an-exploit anymore! Tech Rush Duo just doesn't have that nice ring that Tech Rush Triad has.

That's your first mistake right there.