Why I am agnostic rather than atheist.

Eukaryote

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I wish to explain to our community of skeptics, why I call myself agnostic rather than atheist. On Richard Dawkins scale of 1-7, with 1 being total conviction that a god exists and 7 being a total conviction that it doesn’t, I consider myself a four. However I use a very specific definition of the word “god.”

I define the word “god” as a “conscious or sentient first cause.” If you are not familiar with the concept of first cause, allow me to explain. First cause is the notion that there must have been an event/entity that caused the multiverse/cosmos to exist, and thus caused there to be “something rather than nothing.” This first cause would not be caused by anything else, and would thus violate the rules of casualty.

Let’s give an example. You’ve probably heard a theist ask “if there is no God than what created the cosmos?” In response you may have replied “if there is a God than what created him?” Perhaps a lunatic randomly joined the conversation and argued that God was created by a roll of magic toilet paper, at which point you could ask him who created the magic toilet paper. This discussion could go on and on forever. A disinterested observer would learn from the conversation that there must have been a first event or entity that caused everything else that happened thereafter. This first cause, whatever it is, is impossible. In fact the first cause is not only impossible but completely absurd. The notion of any event/entity existing for literally no reason makes no sense. And yet the universe exists, therefore we must conclude that a first cause did happen.

All events/entities in the cosmos can be divided into two broad categories, the conscious and the non-conscious. Due to the fact that all first causes are absolutely impossible, we can regard conscious and not conscious as equally likely and equally unlikely. Therefore, with the knowledge that a first cause did happen, I assign the probability that the first cause was/is conscious rather than non-conscious to be 50%. Therefore, by my definition of god, I estimate that there is a 50% chance that there is/was a god.

Note that if this god exists/existed, it is not necessarily immortal, omnibenevolent, omnipotent, omniscient, or omnipresent. However given the fact that that this god would be impossible anyway, it wouldn’t be particularly unbelievable if it were any of these things.

Edit: Many people say that under official language definitions, one can call themselves an agnostic-theist or an agnostic-atheist but not agnostic-period. If I must follow this rule, I will call myself an agnostic atheist. However I usually prefer not to follow this rule as I feel that simply calling myself agnostic is less misleading.

Also, I think that any cosmos that has existed for eternity to fit my working definition of a "first cause." Therefore I consider my working definition of first cause to be exhaustive of all possible alternatives.
 
I have absolutely no idea what the ultimate "truth" of the universe is and I don't claim to.

That's the bottom line reason that I call myself an atheist.
 
I wish to explain to our community of skeptics, why I call myself agnostic rather than atheist. On Richard Dawkins scale of 1-7, with 1 being total conviction that a god exists and 7 being a total conviction that it doesn’t, I consider myself a four. However I use a very specific definition of the word “god.”

I've drifted to and fro but I'd have to say that at this point I'm a 6.9999 on this scale.

A disinterested observer would learn from the conversation that there must have been a first event or entity that caused everything else that happened thereafter. This first cause, whatever it is, is impossible. In fact the first cause is not only impossible but completely absurd. The notion of any event/entity existing for literally no reason makes no sense. And yet the universe exists, therefore we must conclude that a first cause did happen.

Uh, no. The universe (or multiverse, if you prefer) clearly exists. If, as you argue, a first cause is impossible, then it cannot have occurred. Therefore, the universe has always existed in some form.

Alternately, one might posit that something actually did come into existence spontaneously and for no reason whatsoever. That would indeed be a first cause from which all else followed. But there's no reason to attribute consciousness, let alone omniscience/omnipotence, to whatever it was.
 
The notion of any event/entity existing for literally no reason makes no sense.
Seems perfectly sensible to me. Why must everything have a reason?
 
duckstab, I consider a cosmos that has existed for an eternity and was therefore never created to fit the definition of a "first cause."
 
I agree with duckstab's and Perfection's objections. But I would ask a different question:

Sometimes it is pleasant to personify things. In particular we might personify the event of creation, and define a creator as being "the thing responsible for Creation." Such a personification doesn't make a claim about the nature of creation, but only serves as colorful language, allowing us to say cute things like "God does not play dice." How is your definition of a First Cause distinct from the definition of Creator that I've just outlined? In what useful way is it more real?
 
saying cute things like God dose not play dice... actually requires you to ignore all the "evidence " to the contary that he actually does play dice
but if he does... it dose nicely tie together that god created the Universe and that there dose not need to be a reason for everything
 
Not only does God play dice, the dice are loaded.
 
Therefore, with the knowledge that a first cause did happen, I assign the probability that the first cause was/is conscious rather than non-conscious to be 50%. Therefore, by my definition of god, I estimate that there is a 50% chance that there is/was a god.

This is absurd, you can't arbitrarily assign probabilities like that.

50% isn't some magic number that you can assign to any pair of events where you don't know the actual probabilities.
 
This is absurd, you can't arbitrarily assign probabilities like that.

50% isn't some magic number that you can assign to any pair of events where you don't know the actual probabilities.
Confidence is commonly expressed as percentage from 50% to 100%. Is this practice in error? Or else how does confidence relate to probability if we can't directly map percent confidence to probability?

Not saying that you're wrong, I'd just like a clarification of the implication of your assertion.
 
Saint Thomas Moore called, he wants his argument back (the first half, that is. He knows you didn't steal the second half of his argument).

What you're describing is not a novel idea. Many sensible people have proposed a similar theological calculus, from Moore to the Enlightened Diests that signed the Declaration of Independence. Your position is understandable as far as any argument for or against the existence of God makes any lick of logical sense what so ever.
 
50/50 is just giving each side an equal possiblity. There is really nothing to stack the deck either way. Can one really know one way or the other? I do not see adding a belief is good just for the sake of adding a belief. If one believed that this first cause did not exist, that would stack the deck at least in the reality of one's mind, even if there was nothing else to convince one, one way or the other.
 
Confidence is commonly expressed as percentage from 50% to 100%. Is this practice in error?

I'm not aware of this practice, and I'm not really sure what you mean.

50/50 is just giving each side an equal possiblity. There is really nothing to stack the deck either way. Can one really know one way or the other? I do not see adding a belief is good just for the sake of adding a belief. If one believed that this first cause did not exist, that would stack the deck at least in the reality of one's mind, even if there was nothing else to convince one, one way or the other.

I'm not saying that you should assign different probabilities, I'm saying that assigning 50% odds is just as ridiculous as assigning 40%, 10%, 1% or .001% odds, when it's completely arbitrary and you have no evidence.

If you don't have any evidence to assign probabilities, you can't assign probabilities.
 
Edit: Many people say that under official language definitions, one can call themselves an agnostic-theist or an agnostic-atheist but not agnostic-period. If I must follow this rule, I will call myself an agnostic atheist. However I usually prefer not to follow this rule as I feel that simply calling myself agnostic is less misleading.

The point of these definitions is to show that atheism can be arguably weaker than agnosticism, whereas people usually take it be the other way around.

I interpret agnostic-period to mean you don't believe we can ever know whether or not there is a god (or gods). And you don't want to take a guess one way or the other.
 
I'm not aware of this practice, and I'm not really sure what you mean.
It is sometime useful to ask "How sure are you?" to a statement someone just made. Sometimes they reply in vague terms like "pretty sure" "very sure" and "almost positive". But other times, people answer with a percentage like "85% sure," "90% sure," "100% positive" or "99.999% sure." This has wide ranging uses from game show answers to buisness decisions.

What is the relationship of this metric to probability?
 
What is the relationship of this metric to probability?

Nil.

Or, for 5 chars, I suppose you could build a statistic about how unhelpful these estimates would probably be. And perhaps a nice skew set about how people either strongly over- or under-estimate, because I suspect that would happen. 68% suspect.
 
I'm not aware of this practice, and I'm not really sure what you mean.



I'm not saying that you should assign different probabilities, I'm saying that assigning 50% odds is just as ridiculous as assigning 40%, 10%, 1% or .001% odds, when it's completely arbitrary and you have no evidence.

If you don't have any evidence to assign probabilities, you can't assign probabilities.

So in the scheme of things the idea of first cause was always in our thoughts or it "puffed" into being? We have no left over evidence "seemingly" of the first cause, but we do question it. There is probable cause in the fact that we cannot think in infinity, but put every thing into a time frame.
 
It is sometime useful to ask "How sure are you?" to a statement someone just made. Sometimes they reply in vague terms like "pretty sure" "very sure" and "almost positive". But other times, people answer with a percentage like "85% sure," "90% sure," "100% positive" or "99.999% sure." This has wide ranging uses from game show answers to buisness decisions.

What is the relationship of this metric to probability?

Well presumably when people use that in common speech, saying you're "90% sure about something" is the same as saying you think that thing has a 90% chance of being true.

It's just probability, it's not related to confidence at all. (It's also terribly inaccurate, people are horrendously bad at estimating probabilities, even trained statisticians who know that they're bad at estimating and correct for it are still awful at it.)
 
Well presumably when people use that in common speech, saying you're "90% sure about something" is the same as saying you think that thing has a 90% chance of being true.

It's just probability, it's not related to confidence at all. (It's also terribly inaccurate, people are horrendously bad at estimating probabilities, even trained statisticians who know that they're bad at estimating and correct for it are still awful at it.)
I agree that it's inaccurate, but that's beside the point.

It is a metric of confidence, since it is given in reply to the question "how confident are you?"

In answer to this question, it doesn't make much sense to say that you're 40% sure; that would suggest that you're really 60% sure of the opposite. So the least confident you could be is 50%, which you just said corisponds to a 50% probability.
 
Agnostic rather than atheist. No problem.

Agnostic instead of atheist. Highly illogical capt'n.

So, knock yourself out.
 
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