2004 US Election Prediction Contest !

[Marla_Singer]

I've just got the idea to organize a contest in which everyone would pick who they see winning each of US states (the 51 with DC). The one who would get the most accurate results being the winner.

What do you think about it ?

Here's an Excel file showing how it could work.

 

[Cuivienen]

One problem -- I see Colorado going 5-4 split for Bush and Maine going 3-1 split for Kerry. The listing doesn't account for that.

 

[Marla_Singer]

Ah yes. I've forgotten those states didn't have the winner takes all system anymore.

Well, I'll see what I will do. Anyway, what do you think about the idea ?

 

[Cuivienen]

I like, and I've made my prediction. So far, its Bush 260, Kerry 265 without Colorado (which looks like it will indeed choose to split its electorate) and Maine (whose upper district will likely break with the lower and majority and vote for Bush) -- and I'm predicting that the only state to switch since 2000 will be New Hampshire.

EDIT - And Nevada, I forgot about Nevada switching in my projection.

 

[SeleucusNicator]

I can't run Excel. Can I enter in another fashion?

 

[GerrardCapashen]

What's the submission deadline for this? I plan on sending in my predictions as late as possible so I don't get blindsided by any last-minute changes in the race.

 

[Chairman Meow]

I have sad news to report. According to my prediction of this election, Florida will be the decisive state again this election. I am very sorry to report this horrible news, but there is no avoiding it. Whoever wins Florida wins the election. However, my prediction depends upon Kerry winning Penn. and Bush winning Ohio. If one of those are different, then Florida may or may not matter. Also, it assumes that the electoral splits in Maine and Colorado will cancel each other out, which it likely won't, but compared to the effect of Florida, that is small.

Without Florida: Bush 258, Kerry 253, election goes to House of Representatives.
Florida Bush: Bush 285, Kerry 253, Bush wins.
Florida Kerry: Bush 258, Kerry 280, Kerry wins.

If I were to make a prediction on Florida (unless something major happens in the time before the election) I think it will go for Kerry, though very narrowly. Many of the people there are still ticked off about what happened in 2000, and it is likely to motivate support for the Democrats there, helping Kerry in Florida.

@SN: What spreadsheet program(s) are you capable of running?

 

[Stapel]

John F. Kerry: 279
George Bush: 259

 

[SeleucusNicator]

Here, I'll post a snapshot of an online interactive map that I used:

 

[SeleucusNicator]

In case my attachment ever becomes invisible, my prediction was 296-242 in favor of Bush, with the following deviations from the 2000 results:

-- New Mexico, Iowa, and Wisconsin are now Republican
-- New Hampshire is now Democratic

 

[EdwardTking]

Optimistically: I think that it will be like 2000 but worse, supreme court decisions in Florida and may be elsewhere with individual justices voting on partisan lines, with strong general suspicion of massive frauds, and subsequently with some states refusing to comply with the supreme court elected government.

Pessimistically: some of the candidates may get rubbed out resulting in civil war.

 

[Zarn]

I predict only one change from last election, concerning the electoral votes received by Bush. That change would be New Mexico (Democratic to Republican/ Bush). IA, WI, and PA seem very close, but I just gave them to Kerry. Even so, I predict a 283-255 victory for President George W. Bush!

 

[h4ppy]

I predict that Bush will get 254 and Kerry will get 284. (I honestly don't see Florida going Republican this election.)

 

[North King]

I'm going to attack a map done in electoral-vote.com style, but anyway, I predict a very narrow win for Kerry popular vote wise with only New York, Illinois, southern New England, and California absolutely decisively for him. Bush will blitz the Deep South for the most part and the upper plains and Rocky States, obviously.

Really, this is mostly guesswork, and the election could be much more wildly skewed. I think that it really depends on Ohio and Florida. These two will decide the election.

 

[Constantine]

Gwb: 259
Jk: 273

 

[Cuivienen]

Here's my (really terribly-made) rendition of an electoral-vote.com map of the final tallies.

Kerry: 272
Bush: 266

 

[Capulet]

New Mexico and Nevada will probably go for Kerry

Latest polls say Kerry is leading by a small margin in Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, so I think Kerry will still win those.

Ohio - I think that Kerry has a strong, strong chance here. Bush won this state by about 3 percentage points. More than 250,000 people have lost their jobs in Ohio. These people probably don't really feel good about the economic situation of this country, and I think that Ohio will go for Kerry.

Florida - I think that people have learned the lesson of 2000. I think Kerry will win Florida, too

Bush: 220
Kerry: 318
Winner: John F. Kerry

 

[GerrardCapashen]

Wow, people here think very highly of John Kerry's chances. I want him to win, but I actually think that he's going to lose...

It really depends on Ohio and Florida. I just hope the Florida Democrats get their sh...stuff together and get a lot of people to the voting booths.

I will post my map soon.

 

[Chairman Meow]

I was messing around with one of the interactive electoral-vote map things, and noticed something: if all the states vote the way they did in 2000 with the exception of a state or combination of states that have 9 electoral votes that switch from Republican to Democrat, then there will be a tie in the electoral vote. An example (using Nevada and New Hampshire as the states that switch):

 

[luiz]

I think many people are letting their personal views interfer with their predictions.

The latest CNN/Gallupp poll pointed Bush 8 points ahead of Kerry, with 52% against 44% of the democrat.

And considering how the electoral college tends to favour Bush a bit, my guess is that he will win.

Though the margin, IMO, will be narrower then the pointed out in the polls, because of the unusually high numbers of blacks/"hispanics" registering, and they will obviously vote Democrat for the most part.

Edit: 4,000 posts!