Evie
Pronounced like Eevee
Besides which, it's still a bit too early to start gloating about dodging the hurricane season (and by "a bit" I mean "A helluva lot"
2007 Atlantic Hurricane Season hits the ground running...
- Thread starter Evie
- Start date
MobBoss
Off-Topic Overlord
This from you, when you were 'gloating' about the season starting early?
Riiiight.
Evie
Pronounced like Eevee
Fact : The first two storms of the season occured by June 1. This is an early start by any definition.
Fact : Things have since been quiet.
Fact : Numerous seasons had none or only a handful of storms before August 1, then exploded into action.
Fact : There are four months and some bits of weeks left before the hurricane season ends, including what's in nearly every season the most active months (August and September).
Fact : A fourteen storms season (as per the lowered predictions) would still be (IIRC) four storms above the current Atlantic average.
So yes, this from me.
Fact : Things have since been quiet.
Fact : Numerous seasons had none or only a handful of storms before August 1, then exploded into action.
Fact : There are four months and some bits of weeks left before the hurricane season ends, including what's in nearly every season the most active months (August and September).
Fact : A fourteen storms season (as per the lowered predictions) would still be (IIRC) four storms above the current Atlantic average.
So yes, this from me.
sonorakitch
Overseas hunter
It may not be as bad as feared:
http://www.reuters.com/article/scienceNews/idUSN2442542020070725?feedType=RSS&rpc=22&sp=true
~Chris
http://www.reuters.com/article/scienceNews/idUSN2442542020070725?feedType=RSS&rpc=22&sp=true
~Chris
Ziggy Stardust
Absolutely Sane
Mobbie reminds me of Eddy Murphy looking for racism at the airport 
At the airport:
Steward: "Excuse me Sir, is this your suitcase?"
Eddie: "Yeah man, What's wrong? A black man can't own a suitcase?"
Steward: "..."
Moderator Action: Off-topic threadjacking, and a bit flame-ish.
Please read the forum rules: http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=422889
At the airport:
Steward: "Excuse me Sir, is this your suitcase?"
Eddie: "Yeah man, What's wrong? A black man can't own a suitcase?"
Steward: "..."
Moderator Action: Off-topic threadjacking, and a bit flame-ish.
Please read the forum rules: http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?t=422889
MobBoss
Off-Topic Overlord
So are you saying we are going to have an explosion of action after 1 Aug?
Evie
Pronounced like Eevee
No; I am saying that because such explosions have happened - repeatedly! - in the past*, it would be irresponsible to start claiming we're out of the wood.
*For example, in 2004, Alex formed on July 31. The season still saw six major hurricanes, four of them landfalling in (and another grazing) the United States, totalling over forty billions in damage.
*For example, in 2004, Alex formed on July 31. The season still saw six major hurricanes, four of them landfalling in (and another grazing) the United States, totalling over forty billions in damage.
Ziggy Stardust
Absolutely Sane
Mobster, if it pleases you I can pretend the role of chicken little in this thread, since it seems you are desperate for one.
Just say so, and I'm game
Just say so, and I'm game
MobBoss
Off-Topic Overlord
skadistic
Caomhanach
Is this like last year? When it was going to be the worst year ever and the end of the world was coming? Then there were how many storms? The weather man can't get the rain fall right 5 days in advanced for a city 80% of the time. Predicting the Atlantic hurricane cycle for a year in advance, yeah right like that'll happen with accuracy.
Nope, just answering your question.So....now are the terrorists responsible for hurricanes?
Evie
Pronounced like Eevee
You'll note, Skad, that I haven't mentioned the forecasts in this thread except to clarify a point with regard to those MobBoss brought up.
It seems more likely at present, according to meteorologists, that this will be an above-average year (but nowhere near 2005), but there are many factors that could still change and affect the end result.
All that can be said for certain right now is that it's too early to feel safe, and that there's no point in feeling doomed until we have a major hurricane out there headed for landfall.
It seems more likely at present, according to meteorologists, that this will be an above-average year (but nowhere near 2005), but there are many factors that could still change and affect the end result.
All that can be said for certain right now is that it's too early to feel safe, and that there's no point in feeling doomed until we have a major hurricane out there headed for landfall.
Urederra
Mostly harmless
Gothmog (sorry for the spelling) pointed out that somebody predicted that last year was gonna be low in hurricanes.
The trick is to have two teams, one predicts one thing, the other predicts the opposite, and do it in the Nostradamus way, say, don't be very precise (e.g. don't say 25 % more hurricanes, say just more). That way you can't lose.
Ziggy Stardust
Absolutely Sane
Is that another way of saying you do not understand the term: "above average?"
JohnRM
Don't make me destroy you
It must be global warming...and if hurricane season picks up again, I would like to throw a pre-emptive, "It must be global warming" out there for that too.
Evie
Pronounced like Eevee
I know you're joking John, but allow me to take advantage of your piece of humor to underline - we simply have far too little information to make a serious claim regarding the impact of global warming on hurricanes.
While it's true that higher surface temperature (which global warming would likely affect) are generally more conductive, we don't know for a fact what impact global warming would have on such things as wind shear, the African monsoon, and a plethora of other climatological effects that can help or inhibit the formation of hurricanes.
While it's true that higher surface temperature (which global warming would likely affect) are generally more conductive, we don't know for a fact what impact global warming would have on such things as wind shear, the African monsoon, and a plethora of other climatological effects that can help or inhibit the formation of hurricanes.
skadistic
Caomhanach
An early and unexpected El Nino last year is why we had such a weak hurricane season. One factor out of many that wasn't taken into account.
Now was the early El Nino because of global warming thus making the global warming induced hurricanes a push? Can global warming offset global warming?
Now was the early El Nino because of global warming thus making the global warming induced hurricanes a push? Can global warming offset global warming?
Evie
Pronounced like Eevee
Yes, selective warming of water (due to currents, etc) affecting wind shear is definitely one possibilty for global warming-interaction.
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