2010 World Cup Prediction Competition

June 24
Paraguay vs New Zealand: 2-0
Slovakia vs Italy: 0-2
Cameroon vs Netherlands: 0-4
Denmark vs Japan 1-1
 
USA 0-1 Ghana
Germany 0-1 England
 
That messes with the simplicity of the system we use here: 1 match, 1 prediction with every match (in a given round) being worth the same amount of points.

If you want to call a winner for a knock-out match you have to make 3 predictions per match: score after 90 minutes, score after 120 minutes, result of a penalty shoot-out. Either you have to roll those into one somehow which really convolutes things and takes draws out of the equation altogether (reducing the outcome to a simple binary decision), or some matches end up being worth more points than others depending on how long they go and you have to deal with questions like if you predict a win for one side after 90 minutes, do you even get to predict the other two? If not, that imbalances the scoring system in favour of draws in the knock-out stage.

And that's certainly a viable way to run a prediction competition, there are plenty of them that do it that way (like Marla's) and there are 1 or 2 relatively elegant ways to handle it (though they make more sense for two-leg knock-out rounds a la the CL), but that's just not how this contest happens to work. Both approaches have their proponents, it's a matter of preference. For possible future editions it could be worth a discussion but unless there is a massive outcry of protest, or an obvious flaw is exposed or unanticipated situation encountered, the rules were set at the start and I don't want to change them mid-way through (if for no other reason than that it would be a nightmare to update the formulas across 40 tabs on a Google Docs spreadsheet).

All you have to do is post a result for the final score and then if you have tipped a draw, then you need to say which team will go through. Obviously if you have tipped a team to win and then it ends in a draw, then you cannot get points for the exact score, but you can get points for the right team winning. It basically allows for the fact that we have draws for the game and that there has to be a result.

An example would be good to get at what I am talking about, since it is clear that you miss understood what I was trying to get at. Lets say that a game finished 1-1 at the end of full time, then after extra time it become 2-1, then the correct score should be 2-1, not 1-1 for the purpose of the game, needing only one score. So lets say that the game finishes 1-1 after extra time, then the correct score is that, but since we have a winner for these games, we need to have a decision on the winner, so lets say that team 2 is predicted the winner, but team 1 wins, there if some had predicted a 1-1 will get the result, but not the correct team winning. since there ha to be a winner from now on, it means that any predicted draw should have them select the team they think is going to win from that. So that with a prediction of a draw at the end of the game, then you have to select a team to win. It means we are keeping the same system, with predicting the final result and the team that goes through.
 
@classical_hero what you're proposing sounds somewhat doable because you're ignoring penalties. Bring penalties into the fold and it becomes a lot more difficult for the organizer of this to keep track of points. The way it is now it's nice and simple, easy to keep track of.
 
June 25:

Portugal vs Brazil: 1-2
NKorea vs Ivory Coast: 0-2
Switzerland vs Honduras: 2-0
Chile vs Spain: 0-1
 
Netherlands 2-0 Slovakia
Paraguay 3-1 Japan
 
June 25
Portugal vs Brazil 1-2
NKorea vs Ivory Coast 0-3
Switzerland vs Honduras 1-0
Chile vs Spain 1-2
 
That messes with the simplicity of the system we use here: 1 match, 1 prediction with every match (in a given round) being worth the same amount of points.

If you want to call a winner for a knock-out match you have to make 3 predictions per match: score after 90 minutes, score after 120 minutes, result of a penalty shoot-out. Either you have to roll those into one somehow which really convolutes things and takes draws out of the equation altogether (reducing the outcome to a simple binary decision), or some matches end up being worth more points than others depending on how long they go and you have to deal with questions like if you predict a win for one side after 90 minutes, do you even get to predict the other two? If not, that imbalances the scoring system in favour of draws in the knock-out stage.

And that's certainly a viable way to run a prediction competition, there are plenty of them that do it that way (like Marla's) and there are 1 or 2 relatively elegant ways to handle it (though they make more sense for two-leg knock-out rounds a la the CL), but that's just not how this contest happens to work. Both approaches have their proponents, it's a matter of preference. For possible future editions it could be worth a discussion but unless there is a massive outcry of protest, or an obvious flaw is exposed or unanticipated situation encountered, the rules were set at the start and I don't want to change them mid-way through (if for no other reason than that it would be a nightmare to update the formulas across 40 tabs on a Google Docs spreadsheet).

IMO, for the knockout stages it should be the score after 120 minutes. So, if a result occurs in the first 90 minutes, that still the result, but it doesn't complicate things with penalties.
 
@classical_hero what you're proposing sounds somewhat doable because you're ignoring penalties. Bring penalties into the fold and it becomes a lot more difficult for the organizer of this to keep track of points. The way it is now it's nice and simple, easy to keep track of.

Well since all we are worried about is the final score and the winner, all that needs to be done in the case you predict a draw at this stage, it to also predict who will go through.

Portugal 2-4 Brazil
NK 0-7 Ivory Coast
Switzerland 2-1 Honduras
Chile 0-3 Spain
 
Very few points earned yesterday, considering there were group predictions at stake. Rob Worham wins the day with only 16 points. Proviisori shockingly comes in second with 15 points, despite not making any match predicitons!

Azzaman still ranks first, but his lead to chegel has been reduced to a single point. SuperBeaverInc is now 4 points behind chegel.

Ranking for day 14 (Google doc):

Code:
 1. azzaman333    	94 (+11)
 2. chegel    		93 (+14)
 3. SuperBeaverInc.    	89 (+9)
 4. North King    	86 (+12)
 5. warpus    		83 (+12)
 6. Solver   		80 (+11)
 6. Dauphin     	80 (+9)
 8. Loppan Torkel    	79 (+9)
 8. Maquiladora   	79 (+11)
10. BirraImperial    	78 (+9)
10. Red Door    	78 (+14)
12. RobWorham   	77 (+16)
13. Locutus   		76 (+9)
13. Weik    		76 (+7)
15. Arwon    		75 (+12)
15. C0ckney     	75 (+11)
17. Zoid   		74 (+7)
18. OneFootInTheGrave	73 (+12)
18. Robert Plomp     	73 (+12)
20. Darth_Pugwash    	72 (+12)
21. MikeH     		71 (+9)
21. joncha     		71 (+7)
23. Imran Siddiqui     	69 (+9)
24. Echse		67 (+14)
24. Serb     		67 (+11)
26. siron     		64 (+9)
27. Victor Galis     	63 (+11)
27. Kitschum     	63 (+7)
29. Wernazuma III     	61 (+9)
30. classical_hero    	59 (+13)
30. sonorakitch    	59 (+9)
32. Bantams   		53 (+9)
33. Proviisori   	32 (+15)
34. OzzyKP     		28 (+2)
35. Infantry#14    	26 (+2)
36. Rashiminos    	24 (+2)
37. Dudemeister    	22 (+2)
38. El_Cid   		 6 (+6)
 

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